Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a rotation in that spot. It's all a matter if it can withstand the SAL gauntlet ahead and keep that convection all the way across. It's all the way on the African side still. But this is the time to be entering the belt. If this does enter the Caribbean as a system the west wind is still here over Florida meaning we are in a recurve type pattern.

[storms in NC]

This one maybe the one in the Long Range Models thread. Who knows

[ConvergenceZone]

All I know is that it's going to get really busy soon, so best to get all of the yard work and errands done now , because you will be glued to this board very soon....

Keep in mind, last year at this time I didn't feel this way at all, but this year, there seem to be much more potentials out there, just need the conditions to get a bit better, and it will get pretty crazy.........

[cycloneye]

The latest pic:

[Cyclone1]

Not quite as impressive as yesterday. I can't see this developing very soon.

[HURAKAN]

It's expected, most waves don't develop until past 40W and it's DMIN currently in that part of the world.

[cycloneye]

It looks clear in the above pic that some kind of circulation is in the northern end of the convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

Im not so sure about that fast movement. It looks like its moved maybe 1 or 2 degrees since yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

Even if it doesn't develop, as of now there's nothing else to look at!!!

[Blown Away]

It looks clear in the above pic that some kind of circulation is in the northern end of the convection.

I agree, the circulation is N of 10N and has a nice rotation. This one has a better chance to get away from the ITCZ and if this holds together it has a chance once it gets to 40W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[littlevince]

Loop 1345z-1645z

[KWT]

Don't think this has much chance either to be honest, you can see the stable dry SAL air already wrapping into the circulation of the low, the convection is ok for now because its in the ITCZ and also a little further south but the moment it tries to lift northwards its probably had it till much further west IMO. The SAL isn't as intense as it was a few days back but its still probably enough to stop development IMO till this is much further west.

[Category 5]

though, it does offer a stepping stone to Hurricane development...

Thats a given but think about this. Out of about 100 waves to come off of Africa each year (Correct me if my number is wrong), how many actually become Storms?

[cheezyWXguy]

though, it does offer a stepping stone to Hurricane development...

Thats a given but think about this. Out of about 100 waves to come off of Africa each year (Correct me if my number is wrong), how many actually become Storms?

on average, 10, but of the last 10 years, probably about 15

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 14N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW/WAVE. ANY
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Category 5]

though, it does offer a stepping stone to Hurricane development...

Thats a given but think about this. Out of about 100 waves to come off of Africa each year (Correct me if my number is wrong), how many actually become Storms?

on average, 10, but of the last 10 years, probably about 15

Thats overall, I'm talking about Cape Verde storms.

[Sanibel]

If the last two waves are any measure this one doesn't have much chance.

[littlevince]

Loop 13:45z - 19:15z

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for the loop. The circulation is noticeable and although the convection is not very strong or widespread, it seems to be holding.

[KWT]

Yep circulation is very evident on that loop, as is the stable clouds getting dragged SE into the circulation as well. Most of the convection is still related to the ITCZ it seems.