Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[cycloneye]

180 hours

Insane,not you Ivan but that.

[Gustywind]

Just runs Ivanhater but we should be vigilant during the next 7-10 days seems that last few runs Dominica and Guadeloupe are the islands the most exposed of this little boy "Bill" That's always impressive to see all that predictions, but we have to wait and see

[Gustywind]

180 hours

Insane,not you Ivan but that.

It's really impressive Luis hope it's a joke Bill can go fishing

[Ivanhater]

Horrible run..batters the Islands, then through the Florida straits into gulf near Tampa..though this will change as its far out..looks to be a busy week ahead

[Brent]

Horrible run..batters the Islands, then through the Florida straits into gulf near Tampa..though this will change as its far out..looks to be a busy week ahead

Indeed. Hits almost every land mass between Africa and the U.S.

[PTrackerLA]

This system looks like a monster for the islands unfortunately. I know we're in fantasy-land past a week but I wonder how much would be left of this system after seemingly traversing Hispanola. What is this like 8 of the last 10 runs have this system nailing the islands and eventually impacting the US? Hard to ignore.

[cycloneye]

This system looks like a monster for the islands unfortunately. I know we're in fantasy-land past a week but I wonder how much would be left of this system after seemingly traversing Hispanola. What is this like 8 of the last 10 runs have this system nailing the islands and eventually impacting the US? Hard to ignore.

If it were only the GFS,it would not be to believe,but IMO the best model in 2009 having also a monster,the ECMWF,is to pay very close attention.

[Blown Away]

This is 3rd day in a row the GFS has been showing this system slamming Florida. What's spooky, is the impact on SFL is on 8/24!

[Gustywind]

Horrible run..batters the Islands, then through the Florida straits into gulf near Tampa..though this will change as its far out..looks to be a busy week ahead

Dammn worst scenario for everybody, awesome, let's wait and see once again the next runs...

[KWT]

The only saving grace for Florida is by the time the system gets there it'd be a shadow of what it would have been in the NE Caribbean as its overland pretty much non-stop, a bit like hurricane Georges in some respects.

Worst case for Florida is if the system decided to stay on a WNW tracking once its past the NE Caribbean rather then plow into Cuba.

[Wx_Warrior]

Cue up Johnny Cash...."I hear the train a-coming...."

The train is rolling off Africa.

[Gustywind]

The only saving grace for Florida is by the time the system gets there it'd be a shadow of what it would have been in the NE Caribbean as its overland pretty much non-stop, a bit like hurricane Georges in some respects.

Worst case for Florida is if the system decided to stay on a WNW tracking once its past the NE Caribbean rather then plow into Cuba.

Absolutely guy you're right. Georges was expected to drift between Martinica and Dominica the previous two days before its arrival Sunday just to the north of Guadeloupe.
Florida does not seems to be spare too, looks like a killer cane

[Ed Mahmoud]

*********** DOUBLE POST ALERT ***********


No elaboration at all, but wave well East of L. Antilles is a potential Gulf threat per JB.

He was more excited about TD #02L, as a role player, a pulling guard that blasts a hole through the dry air, so the running back soon to come off Africa has an open field to possibly threaten the East Coast in about two weeks. No glory for TD #2, but it is a team player.


The ~2 week GFS- exact location bounces some, but four runs in a row, as JB showed, a powerful system, near or off the East Coast.



Not part of the double post...


My first exposure to cable TV and HBO - 1976, when we evacuated from Nassau Shores, to the home of Tom Harkin, an American Airlines co-worker with my Dad. Almost saw my first "R" rated movie. Hurricane Belle. Power went out during MPAA screen. 1978, a week, no school, St. Martin of Tours in Amityville, Sister Grace Edwards, who despised me. That February blizzard and Hurricane Belle changed me.


Tom Harkin wound up with empythsema (sp?) like my Dad. My Dad never wound up carrying an oxygen bottle, but his shortness of breath and coughing disguised his lung cancer. First clue my Dad had lung cancer was intense pain in his hip. Late March, I visited a week after the diagnosis, had tickets to TMS for the Samsung 500. Dad was dead by late June.

Moral- 2 pack a day Pall Mall habit- bad.


Anyway, satellite

[Ed Mahmoud]

Horrible run..batters the Islands, then through the Florida straits into gulf near Tampa..though this will change as its far out..looks to be a busy week ahead

Donna-esque?


I wasn't even born yet, but everyone has heard of Hurricane Donna...

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Bermuda Ridge. Day by day guidance suggests a bit stronger and ridging Westward.

[Ivanhater]

In years past, GFS tended to overdue trough amplification, hence in past runs had this system curving well out to sea. Something to look at in the long range. For now the Islands look to be dealing with one hell of a system.

[KWT]

Yeah it is quite like Donna in some respects, though its also very similar to Georges for till it leaves Cuba.
So a fusion between Georges and Donna, granted this one would be MUCH weaker then Donna when it reaches land due to the track it takes on this run.

Of course it could take a very different path as well...saying that I don't think the GFS is too far off this run from what will happen.

[Wx_Warrior]

If my boy JB says it, then dang it, put it in ink!

[Gustywind]

[quote="Ivanhater"]In years past, GFS tended to overdue trough amplification, hence in past runs had this system curving well out to sea. Something to look at in the long range. For now the Islands look to be dealing with one hell of a system.
Yeah unhopefully:eek: wait and see...the next runs will give us a better idea of this possible scenario.

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC continues to show the wave behind TD 2.By the way,it develops into a hurricane TD 2.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation