EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

[capepoint]

Yeah, this one is forecasted to make for an ugly Tuesday and Wednesday here and in the mid to upper 60's. YUCK!

It has put a noticable chill in the air here. Good steady rain all day, no real flooding that I know of, it has been running off pretty well here. A little thunder here for the past hour, but no gusts or anything. Cape Lookout reporting gusts of about 30 knots, but I am about 14 miles away and I have not recorded anything over 19 mph all day. Enjoy your rainy day...lol

[vacanechaser]

Yeah, this one is forecasted to make for an ugly Tuesday and Wednesday here and in the mid to upper 60's. YUCK!

It has put a noticable chill in the air here. Good steady rain all day, no real flooding that I know of, it has been running off pretty well here. A little thunder here for the past hour, but no gusts or anything. Cape Lookout reporting gusts of about 30 knots, but I am about 14 miles away and I have not recorded anything over 19 mph all day. Enjoy your rainy day...lol

chill??? hmm... dew points up here... not hot, but certainly not chilly....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[george_r_1961]

I just emailed Forecaster Brennan and politely and respectfully asked why this isnt being carried as a subtropical system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Stephanie]

Yeah, this one is forecasted to make for an ugly Tuesday and Wednesday here and in the mid to upper 60's. YUCK!

It has put a noticable chill in the air here. Good steady rain all day, no real flooding that I know of, it has been running off pretty well here. A little thunder here for the past hour, but no gusts or anything. Cape Lookout reporting gusts of about 30 knots, but I am about 14 miles away and I have not recorded anything over 19 mph all day. Enjoy your rainy day...lol

chill??? hmm... dew points up here... not hot, but certainly not chilly....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I know what vacane is saying - when the temp is cooler than what we're used to, it feels even more so with the increased dewpoint. It does feel that way tonight up here. It's kind of a wet blanket.

[capepoint]

Yeah, this one is forecasted to make for an ugly Tuesday and Wednesday here and in the mid to upper 60's. YUCK!

It has put a noticable chill in the air here. Good steady rain all day, no real flooding that I know of, it has been running off pretty well here. A little thunder here for the past hour, but no gusts or anything. Cape Lookout reporting gusts of about 30 knots, but I am about 14 miles away and I have not recorded anything over 19 mph all day. Enjoy your rainy day...lol

chill??? hmm... dew points up here... not hot, but certainly not chilly....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

71 degrees here...and yep, thats a chill when you are used to 80's...and youre wet. we've had 7 inches of rain since midnight, and temps have been steady in the low 70's all day.

[brunota2003]

Interesting AFD from Morehead City:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
834 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 830 PM MON...HEAVY RAIN FELL ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH RADAR EST UPWARDS OF 8-10 INCHES NEAR THE
BEACHES...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES JUST INLAND. THE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND...WITH THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVING RECEIVED
VERY LITTLE. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DIFFICULTY POSITIONING THIS
LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHICH IS TRACKING MORE ALONG THE COAST THAN THEY
SUGGEST. THE WRF IS THE CLOSEST TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...THOUGH
EVEN THAT SOLUTION NEEDED TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY E. THE BEST
RAINFALL CONVERGENCE AREA IS MAINLY E OF HWY 17...AND EXP THE LOW
TO TRACK E OF THERE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA COULD
REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES ON AVERAGE...UPWARDS OF 3 TO 5...WHILE AREAS W
COULD RECEIVE AS LITTLE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS. SOME WRAP AROUND
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE
ONSLOW AND CARTERET SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
MOVES N...SO CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE AS THE WATER RECEDES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND
70/LOW 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THEN OFF THE NORTH COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO
COOL AND PREFERRED THE WARMER 12Z GFS MOS HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS THE
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 8 PM MONDAY...TOUGH FCST AS MDLS ARE DOING A POOR JOB WITH
PRECIP. SO FAR MOST ALL THE RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE CST IN
AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF LOW PRES DRIFTING N
LOCATED JUST OFF THE S CST. BASED ON RDR TRENDS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
RAIN DEEP INLAND BUT SHLD SEE SOME FOG/LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CIGS AS
LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N ALONG THE CST. HAVE IFR OR WORSE DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TUE THEN SHLD SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT IN WAKE OF LOW. THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE PRIMARILY VFR.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 8 PM MONDAY...SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS ENHANCED BY
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST N OF LOW CENTER LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY.
HAVE SUSTAINED E WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS OVER SRN WTRS AND THESE SHLD
SPREAD SLOWLY N AHEAD OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT
STRONG CNTRL/NRN WTRS BUT DID INCREASE A BIT AND ALSO ADDED SCA FOR
PAMLICO SOUND STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASED SEAS A BIT WITH
MAX 8 FT SRN WTRS NEXT FEW HOURS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE SEAS
SHLD SUBSIDE SRN WTRS TUE MORN AND LATER IN THE DAY UP N AS THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS LATER TUE. A
REINFORCING HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE THE LOW STALL OUT AND WHERE
THE LOW STALLS WILL BE THE KEY TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
MOST OF THE MODELS STALL THE LOW NORTH OF THE NC/VA LINE KEEPING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE NC WATERS.
THE NC WATERS WOULD BE IN THE WEAKER GRADIENT WITH NW TO N WINDS 15
KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20
KT POSSIBLE. IF THE LOW SETTLES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE
STRONGER GRADIENT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME

[xironman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As expected by the models, our little circulation went into a stall south of the OBX, looks to be about 50 miles south of Moorehead and 50 east of Wilmington meandering almost due east with all the convection ripped off and headed north



Buoy 41036 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036 just switched from SE to NE

Code: Select all

Wind Direction (WDIR):    NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):   27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST):   31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):   7.2 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.75 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP):   74.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):   81.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP):   71.4 °F

So now it has maybe 36hrs here to find a break in the shear to show its true tropical heart. From my guess with the models the further east it works the better chance it has.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[mitchell]

just checked all the coastal buoys and obs from Dimamond Shoals up to the Delmarva. Highest sustained wind speeds at 9 a.m. were about 30 knots from the ENE up at Chesapeake light off the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. This station is 40 meters above the ocean and always reads higher than ground level stations nearby. Duck, NC Oregon Inlet, and the Tidewater, VA stations are closer to 20 knots.

['CaneFreak]

Oh, to answer the question about tropical vs. subtropical systems...I thought this was at least subtropical yesterday as well. However, anytime a system is attached to any kind of frontal boundary, it is still considered a purely COLD CORE system...meaning extratropical in nature. To be perfectly honest with you, this thing is losing time to become tropical...we'll see though...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES AND IN
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cpdaman]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

still over warm SST's

oh ya and i am biased now to see a strong ocean storm since i live in SNE now.

[HURAKAN]

Not much to see here.

[cpdaman]

nice ball of convection

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

sub-tropical characteristics anyone

either way this is destined to retrograde back toward the delmarva/NJ coast line later tonite IMO

[Sanibel]

Something was trying to curl up there but 2009 wasn't supporting it.

[HURAKAN]

A ship reporting TS winds

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[brunota2003]

Duck FRF Pier reported sustained winds of 42.95 mph just an hour or so ago...currently has sustained winds of 39.6 mph...with gusts to 47 earlier.

http://sverdrup.marine.usf.edu/ms_tmp/xenia_564773.html

[brunota2003]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014

Buoy had sustained winds to 29.1 knots earlier.

Here is the Duck Pier one:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dukn7