Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[rockyman]

We might have "nature's fireworks", instead.

[N2Storms]

Even if a closed low does develope it doesn't appear as though any of the models really strengthen above a very minimal TS....it looks as though this is just going to be a rain event and another set back to the spill clean up effort

[bayoubebe]

I hope not. I'm flying out of NOLA sunday, and I already don't like flying.

[HURAKAN]

Even if a closed low does develope it doesn't appear as though any of the models really strengthen above a very minimal TS....it looks as though this is just going to be a rain event and another set back to the spill clean up effort

Although I agree with you, at this point you can't put too much emphasis on intensity.

[poof121]

Never fails. Every time we decide to go on a camping trip something decides to rain on us.

[DTWright]

This would definitely slow down the clean-up efforts.

[floridasun78]

model still show it been on lasst few days

[HURAKAN]

Temps are incredible for early July.



Vorticity keeps increasing

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[N2Storms]

Doesn't sound like the Tallahassee NWS is buying into the GFS or CMC....IMO, this is not going to amount to much...



THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY A COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. 18Z OBS INDICATE
A 1018MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER APALACHEE BAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS VORT MAX AND SFC REFLECTION PROVIDE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS GRADUALLY ALLOW A SFC LOW TO ORGANIZE AND
DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE GFS LOW TRACKS
SLOWLY WEST AND MEANDERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST. THE CANADIAN TRACKS THE LOW TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH
LESS BULLISH...PREFERRING TO KEEP THE DISTURBANCE AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH (NAM) OR A VERY WEAK SFC LOW (ECMWF) AND TRACKING IT SLOWLY
WEST. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS IN THE GFS SHOWS VERY
HIGH QPF OVER THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM STABLE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FROM THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION. THIS IS OFTEN A SIGN OF GRID-SCALE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WHICH WE BELIEVE IS HELPING THE GFS TO SPURIOUSLY SPIN-UP
THE SFC LOW. A SIMILAR FEEDBACK MAY BE SPINNING THE LOW UP IN THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION. IN CONTRAST...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS...WITH UPDATED CONVECTIVE SCHEMES...DOES NOT SHOW ANY SPIN-UP
OF A SFC LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

[rockyman]

Watching the IR loop, high cold cloudtops are being generated in Apalachee Bay...but are being blown to the SSE by extreme shear (the typical sheared "candle in the wind" effect).

[Stormcenter]

Below is the link to this afternoon's NWS
discussion out of New Orleans, LA.


http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

[floridasun78]

this could mean rainy 4 of july weekend for north fl i hope dont affect firework event in north fl on sunday

[Ivanhater]

[TexasF6]

Hmmmm....could that ULL over Cuba get into the GOM and get to the surface????? Mabye thats a player in this too....its moving into the Gulf..

[Ivanhater]

Looks like it is going to be windy around the MS, AL and FL coasts

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS

[Frank P]

Any wind from the south would be bad for the coast.. we are getting copious amounts of oil to wash up on the Biloxi beach this week and barrier islands.. this will only exacerbase an already crappy situation on the coast

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Frank..yall are getting what we did last week now that there is a SE wind..bad news all around...

18z NAM on board now with a tight system moving west

[thetruesms]

Ivanhater's post reminded me to check out SREF to get another take on things. It seems like it is showing something similar to the Euro, with a barely there surface low meandering about the northern Gulf coast