Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[SouthFloridawx]

80 Hours or so...

[South Texas Storms]

so far nothing at 84hr...hmmm

[SouthFloridawx]

Probably watch the one that is coming in behind TD04... In the GFS model. If it keeps consistently showing that system and the trough pulls out.. That's the system to keep an eye on.

[tailgater]

weaker and into the Yucatan this run

[South Texas Storms]

new GFS=BUST

[HeeBGBz]

It got my attention. It looks like the intense heat over the MGC is breaking up in a day or two. Will that be a factor for leaving the NGOM vulnerable? The last few models I've seen were well worthy of the .

[South Texas Storms]

is that it developing a little later in time off the texas coast in 162 hrs?

[ROCK]

Yep...18z GFS was a fluke run

famous last words...

the CMC and Euro saw it but into Belize with less water to work with......at least the horrible GFS saw it and one would expect it to ramp up with more time over water.... 12z never really latches on...Euro tonight will be fun...

[Sanibel]

Don't know if there's anything to that but it's perched in a bad place for this time of year.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED ABOUT 1090 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
OVER THE AREA...AND THE WEATHER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[xcool22]

Invest 92L comeing soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

As mentioned by the post from Brent, up to 20%! I didn't expect them to raise it. Hmmmm

[Ivanhater]

It will likely run into Central America before it can develop just like the last one

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO is silent...night all!

[TwisterFanatic]

A image before i head to bed..

[weatherwindow]

just supposition here...however i wouldnt be surprised with 92L being posted with the first visuals this am...the convective signature is becoming quite impressive

[cwachal]

isnt this in the tropical dead zone where very few storms have formed... the eastern Car....???

[KWT]

ECM does weakly try to develop it, but then again its no weaker then what the ECM sees Colin, so could easily be a TS.

Thus far this season the ECM has slightly underdone development of systems, showing weak TS as Vort regions with just a sharp wave, so the ECM could easily be showing a TS into CA...

Anyway vry interesting to see what the convection looks like right now, still no hints of development just yet but if the convection holds there could end up seeing a MLC try to form with it...invest 92L very possible from this today.

GFS 00z develops the Vort somewhat in the BoC, maybe also somewhere to watch it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Could easily be an invest soon...models aren't keen on quick development but they are suggestive of something a little down the line trying to form perhaps.

The GFS 06z run landfalls this in....yep N.Mexico, upper troughing does look fairly strong so this won't be a pure simple westward into oblivion and no return type set-up, once it hits CA (which it will I'm pretty sure) it'll probably lift into the BoC and there it has a real chance of strengthening IMO...