2011 WPAC Season

[StormingB81]

Looks like ECMWF is picking up 2 storms one on the 25th and one on the 27th....

[Typhoon Hunter]

Trend beginning to emerge for some sort of system to cross Philippines and enter SCS as well as something to form out near Guam per ECMWF. Things could well get interesting towards the weekend!

[StormingB81]

Almost seems kind of odd that we havent had any new invest's lately...lol

[StormingB81]

ECMWF really hinting at something now about mid next week east of PI..

[euro6208]

gfs showing a tropical cyclone developing east of luzon and moving east while strengthening to typhoon. we shall see...

[P.K.]

Two BT files released yesterday. No changes to max winds or min pressures.

AXPQ20 RJTD 280100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1104 HAIMA (1104)
PERIOD FROM JUN1618UTC TO JUN2512UTC
1618 9.3N 129.1E 1008HPA //KT 1700 10.0N 129.1E 1008HPA //KT
1706 10.7N 128.5E 1006HPA //KT 1712 11.7N 127.8E 1008HPA //KT
1718 12.4N 127.4E 1006HPA //KT 1800 13.4N 126.7E 1006HPA //KT
1806 14.4N 125.6E 1004HPA //KT 1812 15.2N 124.9E 1004HPA //KT
1818 15.9N 124.5E 1002HPA //KT 1900 16.7N 124.2E 1002HPA //KT
1906 17.6N 123.7E 1002HPA //KT 1912 18.7N 122.6E 1004HPA //KT
1918 19.3N 121.0E 1002HPA //KT 2000 19.9N 119.7E 1002HPA //KT
2006 19.5N 118.7E 1000HPA //KT 2012 19.1N 117.5E 1000HPA //KT
2018 18.9N 116.6E 998HPA //KT 2100 18.8N 116.1E 998HPA //KT
2106 18.6N 115.5E 996HPA //KT 2112 18.5N 114.8E 994HPA 35KT
2118 18.8N 114.4E 994HPA 35KT 2200 19.3N 114.0E 994HPA 35KT
2206 19.8N 113.5E 992HPA 35KT 2212 20.3N 113.1E 990HPA 40KT
2218 21.0N 112.6E 990HPA 40KT 2300 21.1N 111.8E 990HPA 40KT
2306 21.1N 110.9E 990HPA 40KT 2312 21.1N 109.7E 990HPA 35KT
2318 20.7N 109.0E 990HPA 35KT 2400 20.6N 108.2E 985HPA 40KT
2406 20.4N 107.2E 985HPA 40KT 2412 20.3N 106.4E 990HPA 35KT
2418 20.1N 105.2E 990HPA //KT 2500 19.8N 104.3E 992HPA //KT
2506 19.6N 103.9E 996HPA //KT 2512 19.1N 103.3E 996HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT JUN1618UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT JUN2112UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT JUN2418UTC
DISSIPATION AT JUN2518UTC=

-----

AXPQ20 RJTD 280500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1105 MEARI (1105)
PERIOD FROM JUN2018UTC TO JUN2706UTC
2018 11.0N 133.4E 1002HPA //KT 2100 11.4N 132.4E 1002HPA //KT
2106 11.8N 131.4E 1002HPA //KT 2112 12.0N 130.5E 1000HPA //KT
2118 12.5N 129.7E 1000HPA //KT 2200 13.2N 129.3E 998HPA 35KT
2206 14.0N 128.9E 998HPA 35KT 2212 14.8N 128.7E 994HPA 40KT
2218 15.6N 128.4E 990HPA 45KT 2300 16.6N 127.9E 985HPA 50KT
2306 17.4N 127.4E 985HPA 50KT 2312 18.2N 126.9E 985HPA 50KT
2318 19.3N 126.5E 985HPA 50KT 2400 20.8N 126.0E 980HPA 55KT
2406 22.8N 125.3E 980HPA 55KT 2412 24.4N 124.5E 975HPA 60KT
2418 25.5N 123.8E 975HPA 60KT 2500 26.6N 123.3E 975HPA 60KT
2506 27.7N 123.3E 975HPA 60KT 2512 29.2N 124.1E 980HPA 55KT
2518 32.1N 124.7E 980HPA 55KT 2600 35.1N 124.4E 980HPA 55KT
2606 36.8N 123.0E 980HPA 55KT 2612 37.1N 122.8E 980HPA 55KT
2618 37.5N 123.0E 985HPA 50KT 2700 38.5N 124.3E 990HPA 45KT
2706 39.4N 125.3E 996HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT JUN2018UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT JUN2200UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT JUN2300UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT JUN2700UTC
FROM TS TO L AT JUN2706UTC
DISSIPATION AT JUN2712UTC=

[euro6208]

august update from tropicalstormrisk is out. they forecast 28/18/8...

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[StormingB81]

Looking at the ECMWF...looks like no signs of slowing down!

[Typhoon10]

Hottest day of the year in HK yesterday, mercury touched 35c, but boy did it feel hotter. Thought HK would get more storm/lightning/thunder activity but have escaped so far. Yet am hearing some places in Philippines has been raining for almost 2 months.

[StormingB81]

Okinawa has had over 95 inches year to date....wish we could send some to tx

[euro6208]

looks like the west pacific might be quiet for a little bit after our ""1st peak"" which is good so that we can relax and enjoy our life but bad in that the waters will heat up again to potentially develop more monster storms!

[StormingB81]

Looks a little off for about 3 days now it has shown nothing in the near future...kind of makes you wonder of a big bang that may happend..the calm before the storm

[StormingB81]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

JMA has a low east of PI..wonder if that is something to look at the next couple of days?

[phwxenthusiast]

how about that blob approaching east of the Philippines... doesn't really look like anything organized at the moment... nice convective blowup though that has persisted for almost 2 days now... also some ship reports indicating east and east northeast winds (around 10kts) at the northern periphery of that "system" although i'm not really sure how accurate are those ship obs...

looks like going to be bringing in some rain though for Luzon based on the models...

[StormingB81]

Still nothing being shown on EXMWF..kind of odd its been like that for a few days now...

[euro6208]

lol... i know it's been like 1 week since our last tropical cyclone but it feels more like a month! with the dry phrase of the mjo over the west pacific, i think we will see our "2nd peak" not until the first week of september. I really miss tracking our monster powerful typhoons

[Typhoon Hunter]

lol... i know it's been like 1 week since our last tropical cyclone but it feels more like a month! with the dry phrase of the mjo over the west pacific, i think we will see our "2nd peak" not until the first week of september. I really miss tracking our monster powerful typhoons

Yeah it looks like the MJO will keep things in check for the next week or so. Maybe in around 10 days or so we'll start to see something spin up. Next target Taiwan maybe?

[StormingB81]

ECMWF finally picks something up..granted it is 10 daysfrom now andon the last day of the run but we shall see..I mean after seeing nothing forl ike 4-5 days it is something

[StormingB81]

Looks like the 25th and 26th we could start to track somethign again,,,

[StormingB81]

ECMWF still liking the 25th