2012 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

Well, no fear, 94E and 95E are here!

[cycloneye]

It looks like all the energy is being transported to 94E and 95E will fizzle. Looking at the potential of 94E when it makes landfall,it may do plenty of harm in Central America with the tall mountains causing orografic effects that would be a massive flooding and mudslide event,but hopefully that is averted. We have friends in that area like Macrocane in El Salvador who I am sure is watching 94E very closely.

[cycloneye]

Way too quiet it has turned in this basin after Carlotta. And the models dont have anything of significance forming for the next seven days.

[Kingarabian]

NOGAPS shows something in the long range but ... it is the NOGAPS.

[Cyclenall]

NOGAPS shows something in the long range but ... it is the NOGAPS.

The long range GFS now also shows something at 320 hours and it might be a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and the GFS on board for possible TC genesis in a week in the EPac.

Not sure if its a fish or another storm for Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Do any of the EPAC followers expect to see hurricanes this 2012 season go west,reach 140W longitude, enter the CPAC and threat Hawaii? So far Aletta,Bud and Carlotta have not gone too far west.

[Ntxw]

Do any of the EPAC followers expect to see hurricanes this 2012 season go west,reach 140W longitude, enter the CPAC and threat Hawaii? So far Aletta,Bud and Carlotta have not gone too far west.

Analog years says no . Westerlies from warm SST's points toward Mexican recurve

[Kingarabian]

Do any of the EPAC followers expect to see hurricanes this 2012 season go west,reach 140W longitude, enter the CPAC and threat Hawaii? So far Aletta,Bud and Carlotta have not gone too far west.

I expect another 2009 Felicia type Hurricane. Last year we almost had one in Fernanda, but conditions were not as conducive as they will be this season. Also Kenneth almost made it into the CPac very late into the season.

[cycloneye]

Do any of the EPAC followers expect to see hurricanes this 2012 season go west,reach 140W longitude, enter the CPAC and threat Hawaii? So far Aletta,Bud and Carlotta have not gone too far west.

I expect another 2009 Felicia type Hurricane. Last year we almost had one in Fernanda, but conditions were not as conducive as they will be this season. Also Kenneth almost made it into the CPac very late into the season.

Like Felicia in 1997 and Flossie in 2007.

[Kingarabian]

Lol the thing is that they never ever reach us alive.

[Riptide]

Lol the thing is that they never ever reach us alive.

I know, right.........

[euro6208]

mmm euro has *daniel* developing but much weaker (strong tropical storm) as it moves across the eastern pacific...

[Kingarabian]

mmm euro has *daniel* developing but much weaker (strong tropical storm) as it moves across the eastern pacific...

Yup. Backed off from deepening it like in previous runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Do any of the EPAC followers expect to see hurricanes this 2012 season go west,reach 140W longitude, enter the CPAC and threat Hawaii? So far Aletta,Bud and Carlotta have not gone too far west.

In August, maybe, but not now.

[Yellow Evan]

mmm euro has *daniel* developing but much weaker (strong tropical storm) as it moves across the eastern pacific...

Yup. Backed off from deepening it like in previous runs.

I'm thinking something like Lana 09, but I have not looked at the models too closely.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the EPAC basin will have activity very soon. Is invest 96E. You can visit the 96E thread to discuss about that system.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113086&hilit=&p=2238154#p2238154

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[RL3AO]

Well if the Atlantic is going to shut down like wxman predicts, at least give us some nice EPAC fish.

[Kingarabian]

Well if the Atlantic is going to shut down like wxman predicts, at least give us some nice EPAC fish.

Haha yeah!

[Yellow Evan]

Well if the Atlantic is going to shut down like wxman predicts, at least give us some nice EPAC fish.

Yep, it is fishspinner time of year. BTW, want me to post some EPAC trivia in this threat, if so I will.