NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Tireman4]

And eerily enough, I saw this sign on the roadways coming into work this morning:

Houston TranStar Dynamic Message Sign
I-610 North Loop Westbound at Jensen

Hurricane Season Is Here
Be Prepared....

[bilhhh]

Thanks, Mod. That explains it well. Good to hear from you.

[cycloneye]

Thanks, Mod. That explains it well. Good to hear from you.

No problem. Welcome to Storm2k and if you have any questions,I am sure you will get the answer.

[Rgv20]

Looking at all the available guidance and ensemble models if something were to form in the BOC it looks like its going to be a very very slow moving system. Below is the 12ECMWF Ensemble 500mb Height Anomalies for days 6-10 and a very good analog day from June 2001......That was when TS Allison did some catastrophic flooding in the Houston area. It is still a long ways off but someone in the Western Gulf Coast to Louisiana could be in for some crazy rainfall totals as we head at the end of next week to next weekend.

12zECMWF Ensembles 500mb Height Anomalies for days 6-10.


500mb Height Anomaly from June 5-June 7 2001. TS Allison

[Rgv20]

0zGFS has a TC just to the SE of Brownsville by Friday morning....Its going to be an interesting days ahead!

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Means have the TC about 150 miles South of the Operational GFS by Friday Morning.

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Corpus Christi AFD:

ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS S TX LATE NEXT WEEK AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 00Z GUIDANCE SUITES ARE ALL
BRINGING THE SYSTEM/DISTURBANCE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA /AND ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS/. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND THURS.
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK BEARS WATCHING.

[somethingfunny]

Bears watching?

[cycloneye]

From Houston/Galveston NWS:

LONGER RANGE BEGINNING TO LOOK WET. WEAKNESS/EASTERLY WAVE ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MEAN SFC-700MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARDS SE TEXAS. WEAK UPPER TROF AT
500-250MB REMAINS CLOSE BY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE SFC FEATURE PWATS
CLIMB AND SE TX IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LIFT SO 30/40 PERCENT
POPS SEEM PRUDENT. BOTH GFS AND EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS RAISE POPS
FURTHER FOR MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL WAY TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT (LATE NEXT WEEK!) TO FINE TUNE TIMING OR LOCATIONS SO
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. GFS RAISES PWAT VALUES
TREMENDOUSLY WHILE ECMWF IS MORE RESTRAINED. WENT GENERALLY WITH A
2 PARTS ECM AND 1 PART GFS BLEND IN THE EXTENDED.

[Rgv20]

The GFS has been so consistent this past few runs.....6zGFS develops the BOC disturbance a little bit later in the forecast (About a day) which seems more reasonable solution. 0zECMWF still tries to develop something but its so close to the Mexican coast that it does not have any time to do anything.

06zGFS Forecast Valid for Thursday Evening



0zECMWF Forecast Valid for Thursday Evening

[Rgv20]

From the NWS in Brownsville early morning discussion.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
THAT ALL MODELS ARE TRYING TO WRAP UP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE
WEEK AND DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST.
WHILE THE MODELS MAKE THIS FEATURE LOOK EXCITING...IT IT WAY TOO
EARLY TO IMPLY ANYTHING TROPICAL OUT OF THIS FEATURE OR TO NAIL
DOWN THE TIMING OR LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE 8 DAYS OUT.

[Rgv20]

HPC Discussion

"MEANWHILE RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PSBL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NWRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS GENERALLY SUFFICIENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW TO RECOMMEND A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THE FCST."

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS 100 hours.. nothing in the BOC. quite different from 00z.

[Rgv20]

So far is following the 06zGFS which started development around Wednesday....IMO 0z was a tad to fast.

EDIT:12zGFS Starts developing the low on Wednesday Morning.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: So far is following the 06zGFS which started development around Wednesday....IMO 0z was a tad to fast.

actually its still different in a sense. run the loop its actually the SW carrib low that crosses the yucatan in the boc.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ntxw]

I'm starting to buy into idea of a BOC entity. Whether it be from SW Carib, EPAC or monsoonal trough (heck even all three combined) high pressure over Appalachia and the SE will definitely steer it to the western gulf next week. A faster solution would slip it to the central gulf imo.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a decent sized trough coming down on the 12z GFS could be taking this low further up the Texas coast this run?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a decent sized trough coming down on the 12z GFS could be taking this low further up the Texas coast this run?

189 hours. notice the moisture in the central gulf its heading off to the NE. trough passed it by it seems but did bring it farther north.

But that really far down the road. may not get anything at all.

[bayoubebe]

Supposed to be going to Florida(beach/Panhandle area) next weekend. In your opinions, is the weather going to be bad? Will the storm below FL currently be affecting the area in a week?

['CaneFreak]

beginning to think this is all a bunch of model nonsense This happens a lot early in the season as the convective scheme of these models spins up a lot of these "phantom" storms and it draws all kinds of attention but ends up being nothing much of anything. With that said, don't take your eyes off of it but at the same time, don't get too surprised if nothing happens. This happens every season year in and year out.