Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

[northjaxpro]

I agree with WeatherFreak. The wave has to keep pulsating convection on its trek westward. The envionment all around the wave appears very stable right now, so we will see how well it can maintain the next couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

I did not think there was. but there is still what looks like a LLC small but it was under that deep convective burst from this morning... you can clearly see in the loop now on the eastern side.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

or here.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Yeah, very small low level swirl and exposed on the eastern side.

[cycloneye]

This is why I have been cheering this wave from San Juan since it left Africa . I know it wont end the pattern we have been experiencing not only in Puerto Rico but also in some of the islands of the Eastern Caribbean,however it will aliviate things a bit temporary. We need a few waves in a row.


.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKED THE 30TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA 90F
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE SECOND LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MONTH WITH THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF
1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE 2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 10 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 IS THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS SURPASSING JUNE 1983
WHEN THERE WERE 7 NIGHTS.

JUNE 2012 WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END AS THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
AND ALSO THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN ANY
JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.7F DEGS. JUNE 2012 IS
ALSO VERY LIKELY TO END AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AND IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST MONTHS OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH
EVER WAS MARCH 2005 WHEN ZERO RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.

This afternoon's discussion of the wave by the San Juan NWS.

MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
TROP ATLC FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON WITH ENHANCED
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PR...SOUTH COAST AND CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND HAS
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION/SPIN SO IT DOES HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A DEPRESSION. TC CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF
JULY TEND TO DO IT CLOSE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST OF
THEM STAYING WELL SOUTH OF PR. ONLY A FEW OF THEM HAD TAKEN A MORE
NORTHWEST HEADING. FOR NOW JUST THINK SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND
SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. THINGS DRY
OUT RAPIDLY MON NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO THE DRY WEATHER THAT WE EXPERIENCED
MOST OF JUNE.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Aric,you agree that this wave may not develop,but it may send a signal about how the tracks of the future stronger ones may take and show the pattern when the peak of the season arrives?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,you agree that this wave may not develop,but it may send a signal about how the tracks of the future stronger ones may take and show the pattern when the peak of the season arrives?

Its quite possible. what was the last neutral/weak el nino years tracks like ?

[Aric Dunn]

it does appear to be set up where there is a strong Atlantic ridge possibly driving everything through the carrib.

[cycloneye]

Aric, 2004 as it went from Neutral to Weak El Nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, 2004 as it went from Neutral to Weak El Nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/track.gif[/ig]

well that would not be a good thing. lol but yeah its always possible that such seasons happen. el nino does not always mean a slow or a season without major hurricane landfalls.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 282353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N44W THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 13N44W TO 9N45W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DENSE LAYER OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM 13N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
43W-48W.

[Hurricaneman]

Aric, 2004 as it went from Neutral to Weak El Nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/track.gif[/ig]

well that would not be a good thing. lol but yeah its always possible that such seasons happen. el nino does not always mean a slow or a season without major hurricane landfalls.

1992 is one of the best examples of this, the only major of the season was Hurricane Andrew and we all know the major disaster that was, another example is 1969 had 2 major landfalls 1 in Mexico named Francelia and of course Camille. So even if its an El Nino or like 1992 a borderline strong El Nino doesn't mean that a major landfall can't happen because it has in the past

[abajan]

Aric, 2004 as it went from Neutral to Weak El Nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/track.gif[/ig]

well that would not be a good thing. lol but yeah its always possible that such seasons happen. el nino does not always mean a slow or a season without major hurricane landfalls.

1992 is one of the best examples of this, the only major of the season was Hurricane Andrew and we all know the major disaster that was, another example is 1969 had 2 major landfalls 1 in Mexico named Francelia and of course Camille. So even if its an El Nino or like 1992 a borderline strong El Nino doesn't mean that a major landfall can't happen because it has in the past

Moreover, Andrew was a Cat5 which is a rarity in any season, let alone an El Niño one.

[Gustywind]

Loop

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

2AM TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 9N TO 14N.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
POSITION OF THE WAVE MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE
TO THE WEST FOR THE 29/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:


A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[canes04]

I still believe this has potential as it approaches the Islands.
It is holding it's own over the past few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Well its about to run into some moderate shear, that will at least in the next couple days enhance the convection then depending on where the wave axis is will be a light shear again in the northern carrib or just north of carrib.