West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[weatherwindow]

For all we enthusiasts....why settle for one system when we can have two!...06Z GFS..two systems, a weak depression forming in the West central Caribbean and tracking over eastern Hispaniola on 10/25 and a borderline hurricane forming, with an advection of vorticity from the eastern Pacific, in the Gulf of Honduras on 10/29. This system forms just offshore of Belize and moving NNE toward western Cuba and then shunted NE over eastern Cuba on 11/1

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

Quote from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.

[canes04]

There is a cluster of storms moving off the coast of Colombia & Panama this morning.

[Hurricaneman]

This may be one of those things that spawn multiple storms kind of like how Paula and Richard formed from the same monsoon gyre 10 days apart in 2010, would be interesting if that happened

[floridasun78]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480 do we spin in sw carribbean?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS starts cooking things in SW Caribbean in 192 hours. From there is goes NE between Cuba and Haiti developing a bit more.

[floridasun78]

could model behind ? we see area sw carribbean now look better

[KUEFC]

Conditions still far to unfavourable at this time IMO and models are certainly not as aggressive,

[CourierPR]

Conditions still far to unfavourable at this time IMO and models are certainly not as aggressive,

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts Western Caribbean development next week.

[KUEFC]

Conditions still far to unfavourable at this time IMO and models are certainly not as aggressive,

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts Western Caribbean development next week.

Would love to know how many of his predictions have come true.

[weatherwindow]

Conditions still far to unfavourable at this time IMO and models are certainly not as aggressive,

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts Western Caribbean development next week.

12Z Euro depicts broad low centered off Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua at 96 hours. It would certainly appear that we have a multiple model concensus on Western Caribbean development in a reasonable timeframe. Location, track and timing differ but its hard to deny that the potential for cyclogenesis exists and is rising well inside the 10 day timeframe

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a look at the 12Z FIM global dynamic model at 222 hours, which is pretty close to what the long-range GFS and ECMWF are doing with this system (of course with some timing differences).

Latest trend in the models suggest development changes are increasing for a Caribbean system next week. Also the trend is to move whatever is there in the Caribbean NE so doesn't look like a threat to Florida or the U.S. mainland at this time, more of a threat to the Caribbean islands. Given that that we are talking long-range here the threat area is subject to change so alot more model watching ahead.

[KUEFC]

Conditions still far to unfavourable at this time IMO and models are certainly not as aggressive,

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi forecasts Western Caribbean development next week.

12Z Euro depicts broad low centered off Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua at 96 hours. It would certainly appear that we have a multiple model concensus on Western Caribbean development in a reasonable timeframe. Location, track and timing differ but its hard to deny that the potential for cyclogenesis exists and is rising well inside the 10 day timeframe

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

There isn't model support for anything strong though, and the trend has been downward in terms of intensity

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters:

Most of the models are predicting that the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua will see a broad area of low pressure develop by the middle of next week. This low will likely bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to portions of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands late next week. None of the reliable models are predicting formation of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through October 23, though we will need to watch the Southwest Caribbean late next week.

[sunnyday]

The following statements are just my opinion. For official info, see the NWS or hurricane center sites.

ETA for what? So many storms have fizzled or been drawn east and out to sea during prime hurricane months that I don't see a likelihood of one now. Does anyone feel the same?

[Dean4Storms]

The following statements are just my opinion. For official info, see the NWS or hurricane center sites.

ETA for what? So many storms have fizzled or been drawn east and out to sea during prime hurricane months that I don't see a likelihood of one now. Does anyone feel the same?

I for one hope it stays that way!!!!

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS regarding the SW Caribbean.


ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH SFC LOW
GETTING BLOCKED BY AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
65W. IT APPEARS A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION ESPECIALLY HISPANIOLA STARTING MID NEXT WEEK.
NOTE THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN
EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION. A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR MORE DETAILS BUT
SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE MJO IS
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE AND IS FCST TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

[Caribwxgirl]

Well the NHC now mentions a low in the southwest Caribbean and the weather channel is also keeping a watch. I think only time will tell though.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the strongest run yet by Euro at 00z of Caribbean. Look where and how strong is when the run ends at 240 hours.

[Blown Away]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Double trouble on the 06z GFS.