Northern Gulf

#101 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:47 am

ninel conde wrote:

larry cosgrove. a well respected weatherman and true gentelman.

Obviously using two letters to identify someone is something we should avoid.

#102 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:52 am

Live visible loop, once it gets light enough

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-89&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

#103 Postby **NDG** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:54 am

Pressures remain somewhat high, though they are 3-4 mb lower than yesterday at this time, but there is nothing but a weak trough reflected at the surface approaching SE LA already well west of most of the convection.

#104 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 6:56 am

Absolutely nothing in the surface obs offshore. Trof axis extends from mid LA coast southward. Straight SE flow from FL to southeast LA.

#105 Postby **NDG** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:22 am

I was giving the benefit of doubt that the weak surface trough would had been a little further east to not crush too much the expectations of the ones following this disturbance, lol.
Like I said yesterday, with the usual aggressive GFS not even showing development out of this disturbance chances of development should be closer to 0 than 10%

#106 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:28 am

Still worth keeping an eye on.....lots of robust convection out there and not moving fast. IMO

otowntiger · #107 Postby **otowntiger** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:36 am

wxman57 wrote:Absolutely nothing in the surface obs offshore. Trof axis extends from mid LA coast southward. Straight SE flow from FL to southeast LA.

I wonder is this the same system that brought torrential wind driven rain lasting much of the day yesterday in areas just north of Orlando? Some areas got over 6" of rain. It was the most rain I've seen in this area (Sanford) since T.S. Faye.

underthwx · #108 Postby **underthwx** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:21 am

wxman57 wrote:Absolutely nothing in the surface obs offshore. Trof axis extends from mid LA coast southward. Straight SE flow from FL to southeast LA.

Rain for SE Tex from this???...

Sanibel · #109 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:21 am

I think the Gulf is trying to form these disturbances but can't quite. There appears to be some kind of hook shape to this one even though it's not snapping together.

#110 Postby **Pearl River** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:28 am

Is that a weak, small mid to upper level circulation south of the mouth of the MS.River?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lix&loop=yes

#111 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:31 am

MIMIC-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

shows some turning starting yesterday.

#112 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:33 am

I pointed out earlier this morning that there may have possibly been a mid-level spin south of the MS/AL coast that has since drifted slowly west. However I still don't think there is a surface reflection yet.

nautical wheeler · #113 Postby **nautical wheeler** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:36 am

Any guesses what the limiting factors to these flare ups are? Shear low, convergence/divergence looks good, looked like plenty of moisture yesterday when you would have thought we would see sustained convection, warm waters. The convection just seems to blow itself out with all these disturbances.

#114 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:42 am

My same tune today as yesterday.....worth keeping an eye on. Too much fuel out there to be ignored.

#115 Postby **LSU2001** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:17 am

Well, I know there is not much there at this time. But I am in South Lafourche Parish in Louisiana about 20 miles north of port Fourchon and we have storms/squalls moving through coming from the north east and traveling south west. This sure indicates at least some turning off shore.
Tim

#116 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:20 am

Vertical instability in the Gulf is now above average according to CIRA...

#117 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:22 am

Oh there is a lot out there (N.GOM) right now is just a matter of whether it's a developing tropical system or not. Right now there is no proof it is per some Mets. IMO

LSU2001 wrote:Well, I know there is not much there at this time. But I am in South Lafourche Parish in Louisiana about 20 miles north of port Fourchon and we have storms/squalls moving through coming from the north east and traveling south west. This sure indicates at least some turning off shore.
Tim

#118 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:27 am

Just not seeing any sign of a low trying to form at the surface and close off. Don't get why even the Gulf is struggling with TC formation this year.

#119 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:31 am

If anything it sure does continue to "look" interesting.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20130823&endTime=-1&duration=12

#120 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:49 am

Something to keep an eye on, for sure, but development chances are not high. I can identify a weak trof axis in surface obs (quite a few obs) along 28-28.5W off the SE LA coast. Definitely no surface low. Pressures out in the Gulf are 1015mb-1017mb, higher than normal. Rotation aloft does not appear as distinct as it was last evening. Hopefully, it will bring some rain to TX this weekend.

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