Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[MGC]

So far, the GFS is doing a good job with 2E. That being said, I think the chances are increasing that regeneration in the BOC may occur. ULL in the GOM appears to be finally getting out of the picture so perhaps the shear will relax.....we shall see......MGC

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters of the BOC situation.

Will TD-2E emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late this week?
If TD-2E continues due north along its current path at its current speed for the remainder of the week, the storm will cross the narrowest part of Mexico and potentially emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche late this week. Once over the warm waters of the Gulf, the remnants of TD-2E will have the potential to regenerate into a tropical depression. The 06Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model, which uses the GFS model to diagnose wind shear, is predicting that wind shear in the Bay of Campeche will be moderate, 10 - 15 knots, on Friday and Saturday. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week. But according to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model. The European model is much less gung-ho about developing a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, and NHC is currently giving no chance that such an event will happen by Sunday. I put the odds at 10%.

[northjaxpro]

So far, the GFS is doing a good job with 2E. That being said, I think the chances are increasing that regeneration in the BOC may occur. ULL in the GOM appears to be finally getting out of the picture so perhaps the shear will relax.....we shall see......MGC

I am with you on this. Observing WV imagery, it appears that the ULL is drifting SW and weakening. Moisture feed from 2E is definitely streaming in nicely into the BOC. If the shear can relent just a bit more, we may get at least a moderate strength tropical system developing in the BOC in the next few days.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

Starting to get a spin in the BOC , I think this low will take over once the EPAC system moves inland

[cycloneye]

Hey folks look at this:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 03 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS...........................(CHANGED)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 96.0W FOR 05/1800Z.

[SeGaBob]

AtlanticWind I see the spin as well... NHC should at least start mentioning this in the extended range of the TWO.

Edit: Cycloneye posted the new TWO right about the time I said this.

[cycloneye]

Yellow circle again.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN

[northjaxpro]

I am not surprised at all with this latest development. As I referenced earlier on this page, you can see that gradually the environment is improving down in the Bay of Campeche. It is entirely possible we may see an invest tagged within the next 24 hours or sooner in that region, especially after 2E moves inland and a more dominant Low takes over in the BOC.

[TheStormExpert]

Today's 12z GFS run:

48hrs.


84hrs.


144hrs.


168hrs.


192hrs.


204hrs.


228hrs.

[hurrtracker79]

Good to see the NHC onboard. I think there is some potential here from Thursday onward. EURO has been out to lunch so far.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I am not surprised at all with this latest development. As I referenced earlier on this page, you can see that gradually the environment is improving down in the Bay of Campeche. It is entirely possible we may see an invest tagged within the next 24 hours or sooner in that region, especially after 2E moves inland and a more dominant Low takes over in the BOC.

Development looks to start really taking place within the next 48hrs. according to the GFS so I don't see why this cannot obtain Invest status soon.

[cycloneye]

Note=To let know the members that TD TWO-E has been upgraded to TS Boris.

[SeGaBob]

At 228 hours on the 12z GFS it would be nice for that to shift west some more.

[wxman57]

ASCAT pass hit most of the BoC and all of "Boris" at 10:23am CDT. No rotation in BoC yet. I'm thinking closer to 50% chance of TD/TS development next 5 days down there. Eventually, if it does develop and lift northward, I'd look for a sheared TS with winds 45-55kts once it nears 25N. Lots of shear north of 20N. Typical early-season sheared TS.

[adam0983]

Based on the latest GFS information does anyone think this could turn into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm when it gets to Florida in 204 hrs. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[SeGaBob]

Assuming the GFS is perfect that far out...(it likely won't be) 1001 mb would indicate a TD or weak TS

[TheProfessor]

Is there any chance of a pattern shift that would steer the storm ( if it develops) toward Texas?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm going with the euro for consistency even though the gfs is also consistent. If it strengthens then GFS has a chance on steering flow heading NE but I think it will stay in BOC and go inland or near texas. In the world of the tropics. Anything can go. So it's a wait and see scenario.

[adam0983]

South Florida is in a huge drought so I hope the rain comes my way. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[tolakram]

In my opinion the 12Z GFS and Euro are consistent with a feature developing in the BOC. Near the end of the run the GFS develops something east of the main low and moves it toward Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/