Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[northjaxpro]

I'm seeing it up by NHC's mark. Could be a homebrewer coming together here. Good curvature up there.

Initially, there was mid level vorticity where NHC placed their X earlier east of the Central Bahamas. But, convection has increased considerably down near the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon.

One thing to take note is the Upper Level Low. It appears to be sliding west-southwest over the northern coast of Cuba currently. It still is an influence of course, but the farther away the ULL gets and weakens, this will help upper difluence to get going over our disturbance and aid in possible surface development.

This system has the potential to be a tricky one. Shear is low and conditions are expected to remain fair to marginable for possible development in the next few days. The transistion from cold core systems does take time, but this could be one of these situations where over very warm ssts and a good environment in the upper levels something here can spin up into a decent cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

If NHC put an x on the map. Why is it not an invest?

Give it a little time. I think NHC is monitoring trends with the models and the system itself. They will tag it an invest by tomorrow for sure, if not a bit sooner.

[AdamFirst]

A potential analog for track toward Florida could be Katrina if it develops. Track, not strength. I note that because a couple models shunt it to the WSW over Florida before getting picked up by the trough.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Where I placed the X is the area to keep an eye on overnight for convection to refire, nice vorticity here.

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak trough. Surface
pressures are not falling in the area, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. This system is forecast to move toward the
west at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[KatDaddy]

Something to watch through the weekend. From this afternoon's HOU-GAL AFD:

ANOTHER ISSUE OF NOTE THAT MAY (OR MAY NOT) PLAY A ROLE IN THIS
UPCOMING FCST...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN-
TO THE ERN GULF (SEE TPC 5 DAY OUTLOOK). AT THIS TIME...NOT TOO
CONCERNED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT PER SE (CURRENTLY LOWISH PERCENT-
AGE OF FORMATION) BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE IT COULD PUSH THIS
WAY. SO CLEAR EYES AND ALL THAT... 41

[tropicwatch]

Where I placed the X is the area to keep an eye on overnight for convection to refire, nice vorticity here.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 40b035.jpg

Looks like you might have the vorticity set a little to far north and west.

[blp]

Where I placed the X is the area to keep an eye on overnight for convection to refire, nice vorticity here.

[]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/f4da0d8a-18bb-47fe-940e-33dfb232cdba_zps9e40b035.jpg[/img]

Looks like you might have the vorticity set a little to far north and west.

[]http://tropicwatch.info/wg8vor.gif[/img]

The 500, 700, 850 vorticity are now aligned in this area. Getting interesting once convection starts to get going watch out.

[LaBreeze]

A potential analog for track toward Florida could be Katrina if it develops. Track, not strength. I note that because a couple models shunt it to the WSW over Florida before getting picked up by the trough.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So, could this be a double hit for Florida? Southern FL and then the panhandle (if anything develops and gets picked up)?

[Senobia]

From local mets (SETX):

A tropical wave off of Florida's Southeastern Coast near the Central Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some development is possible, but it is too early to speculate on how strong it will become. The MOST reliable forecast model points towards New Orleans however, this is just speculation until a plane investigates this system. Regardless, this system will help to enhance rain chances this weekend.

[floridasun78]

their upper low to east affecting look moving west that cause shear to area

[Senobia]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas and the
adjacent Atlantic are associated with a weak trough. Surface
pressures are not falling in the area, and development, if any, will
be very slow to occur. This system is forecast to move toward the
west at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

A potential analog for track toward Florida could be Katrina if it develops. Track, not strength. I note that because a couple models shunt it to the WSW over Florida before getting picked up by the trough.

Adam,

Track wise not really the set up is similar I agree but Katrina was further up to the north east of us compared to this feature which is south east. So when Katrina did move WSW you are correct the COC came right over us, so not sure we could use Katrina as an analog.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From local mets (SETX):

A tropical wave off of Florida's Southeastern Coast near the Central Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some development is possible, but it is too early to speculate on how strong it will become. The MOST reliable forecast model points towards New Orleans however, this is just speculation until a plane investigates this system. Regardless, this system will help to enhance rain chances this weekend.

But of course they do. And would use that term very loosely this year

[jlauderdal]

From local mets (SETX):

A tropical wave off of Florida's Southeastern Coast near the Central Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some development is possible, but it is too early to speculate on how strong it will become. The MOST reliable forecast model points towards New Orleans however, this is just speculation until a plane investigates this system. Regardless, this system will help to enhance rain chances this weekend.

But of course they do. And would use that term very loosely this year

What do they consider the most reliable model?

[NDG]

From local mets (SETX):

A tropical wave off of Florida's Southeastern Coast near the Central Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some development is possible, but it is too early to speculate on how strong it will become. The MOST reliable forecast model points towards New Orleans however, this is just speculation until a plane investigates this system. Regardless, this system will help to enhance rain chances this weekend.

But of course they do. And would use that term very loosely this year

What do they consider the most reliable model?

They were talking about yesterday's 12z Euro run, last night's run it did not do much with it tracks further west towards TX.

[NDG]

Not even in the area with the best environment in the Atlantic basin anything can get going, lol.
Just a couple of thunderstorms is all there is near the vorticity near the central Bahamas this morning. Models don't do much with it any longer, at least over the next couple of days, just some moisture for S FL over the next couple of days.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="Senobia"]From local mets (SETX):

A tropical wave off of Florida's Southeastern Coast near the Central Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some development is possible, but it is too early to speculate on how strong it will become. The MOST reliable forecast model points towards New Orleans however, this is just speculation until a plane investigates this system. Regardless, this system will help to enhance rain chances this weekend.

But of course they do. And would use that term very loosely this year

What do they consider the most reliable model?

They were talking about yesterday's 12z Euro run, last night's run it did not do much with it tracks further west towards TX.[/quote]
k, as long as they were using euro as most reliable

[Kohlecane]

Anyone have a good reliable WV loop on this my computer is having trouble with the one I Use!

[wxman57]

There isn't much out there today. Pressures remain on the high side east of Florida. No significant convection and no model support for development (EC or GFS). Will likely produce a little rain for Florida over as it passes this weekend then dissipate and/or be drawn northward into the Gulf Coast ahead of an approaching front next week. I think 20% is a bit high for development chances.