Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#101 Postby Fego » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:57 pm

Alyono wrote:dissipates it east of the islands

Strange to me that (per the GFS) a weaker system doesn't enter the Caribbean.
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#102 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:00 am

Fego wrote:
Alyono wrote:dissipates it east of the islands

Strange to me that (per the GFS) a weaker system doesn't enter the Caribbean.


does not surprise me at all.

This is the common mistake many make here. They say weak = west. All a weak shallow system will do is follow the low level flow. Given the ridging to the north of this system, a stronger system may go farther west than a weak one
0 likes   

User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#103 Postby Fego » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:02 am

Alyono wrote:
Fego wrote:
Alyono wrote:dissipates it east of the islands

Strange to me that (per the GFS) a weaker system doesn't enter the Caribbean.


does not surprise me at all.

This is the common mistake many make here. They say weak = west. All a weak shallow system will do is follow the low level flow. Given the ridging to the north of this system, a stronger system may go farther west than a weak one

The GFS-P says you are pretty right!!
Image
1 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!

User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#104 Postby StormTracker » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:24 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
19N21W to a 1012 mb surface low near 09N20W to 03N20W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains embedded within an
envelope of southwesterly monsoonal moisture that observed in
satellite imagery just offshore the coast of Africa.
Isolated
showers are observed in the vicinity of the low. A surface trough
is along 32W from 20N-24N. This trough is part of the energy of
the northern vorticity center that accompanies this tropical wave.
No significant deep convection is noted with this feature.
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!

User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#105 Postby StormTracker » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:27 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:34 am

GFS operational after not developing at 00z again has a Tropical Storm at 06z.Is back and forth on this.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#107 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:43 am

@MJVentrice
Calibrated GFS Ensembles bullish on MDR tropical cyclone development in the next 10 days; This is way too aggressive IMO.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/880748380439359490


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#108 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:24 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
19N22W to a 1012 mb surface low near 10N22W to 01N20W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains embedded within an
envelope of southwesterly monsoonal moisture that observed in
satellite imagery just offshore the coast of Africa. Isolated
showers are observed in the vicinity of the low. A surface trough
is from 21N35W to 17N33W. This trough is part of the energy of
the northern vorticity center that accompanies this tropical wave.
No significant convection is noted with this feature.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#109 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:17 am

The 06Z GFS is back to being quite bullish. While hard to believe, the GFS also predicted Bret forming east of the Lesser Antilles way before any model picked it up so you never know.
2 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2100
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#110 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:17 am

This wave has a bit of a shot next week, but I'd be shocked if it makes it all the way like the GFS is showing in the long range.

Image

from http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#111 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:48 am

The same people who yesterday were saying that the potential for TC development was there are saying now that TC development seems highly unlikely. Just love how things can make a 180 degree flip in a matter of a day. Btw, it's not that uncommon to see early Cape Verde activity in July, just look at years such as 2008, or 2013 for recent examples with 2008 featuring Hurricane Bertha which went on to be a record long-track major hurricane.

I'm not saying I'm sold on development but every once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut.
1 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#112 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:53 am

i look other models their show weak system that die quick as Bret did
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#113 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:54 am

twc talk about wave by afica but their say not all models are boat with gfs
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#114 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:28 am

MU going with development again but weaker than the 06Z. Entering Hebert box in one week and intensifying:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#115 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:34 pm

A number of GFS ensembles show development again:

Image
1 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#116 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:45 pm

Anyone know of a good link where I could see this and the other waves that emerge West Africa into the Eastern Atlantic?
1 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#117 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:53 pm

Euro keeps trying to develop it in 4 or 5 days, but it falls apart very quickly. Still don't expect anything, but it wouldn't be the first time the GFS sniffed out MDR development.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#118 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:55 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Anyone know of a good link where I could see this and the other waves that emerge West Africa into the Eastern Atlantic?


See them how? Models? Satellite?

For models, tropical tidbits is still the best IMO.

For satellite and other data, probably CIMSS http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#119 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:59 pm

RL3AO wrote:Euro keeps trying to develop it in 4 or 5 days, but it falls apart very quickly. Still don't expect anything, but it wouldn't be the first time the GFS sniffed out MDR development.


12Z EC is showing a vigorous wave with lower MSLP anomalies in the long-range compared to previous runs (blue area just north of Lesser Antilles).

Image
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: Strong Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#120 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:39 pm

A few things to remember regarding the Euro.
1) It struggles some with forecasting TC genesis south of 20N I believe.
2) It tends to show development in the long-range only to drop it in it's mid-range then picks it back up just right before it happen.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JaviT, LarryWx and 27 guests