2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Lets remember the FV3 is experimental and record is unproven since it is at a fairly young stage.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system:
Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?
https://s14.postimg.cc/jywutzde9/fv3p_m ... atl_43.png
If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.
This looks like it is placing the monsoon trough a bit too far east. I could buy this solution for June
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
WeatherEmperor wrote:FV3 at 240 hours. Just for fun.....
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201805 ... 718190.png
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yes look only for wake us up for hurr season fl don't need early season system w3e have more worry about in aug
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
let say this models have bugs need be fix by aug doing peak of seasonNtxw wrote:Lets remember the FV3 is experimental and record is unproven since it is at a fairly young stage.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alyono wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:gatorcane wrote:Wow the FV3 GFS is going bonkers with this system:
Wasn't this model supposed to reduce phantom storms like this?
https://s14.postimg.cc/jywutzde9/fv3p_m ... atl_43.png
If I had to take a guess it looks like a potential convective feedback issues is going to be a MAJOR problem with this new-GFS. Correct me if I’m wrong, Alyono knows more about this.
This looks like it is placing the monsoon trough a bit too far east. I could buy this solution for June
Seems like a common model problem, and end up forming a Caribbean TC when genesis is really in the EPAC
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18Z GFS going with development again starting around days 8-9 so timeframe. 240 hour frame below:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 18Z FV3 GFS is coming in even stronger:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I'm pretty sure there is a 99.9% chance of that not happening! Climatology wouldn't favor it.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: I'm pretty sure there is a 99.9% chance of that not happening! Climatology wouldn't favor it.
Closest analogy would be Hurricane Alma, a major hurricane in early-June.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Down to 968mb on the 18Z F3V GFS and crawling NNW near the Western tip of Cuba. Really?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
gatorcane wrote:Down to 968mb on the 18Z F3V GFS and crawling NNW near the Western tip of Cuba. Really?
Feels like we're model watching a real potential tropical cyclone you'd see in the peak months of August, September, or October. Staying up for 00z?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alma was in 1966. In 1982 Alberto was 985 mb just northwest of Cuba on June 3rd. Before shear decapitated it.
I am not saying it will happen, but there is precedence.
I am not saying it will happen, but there is precedence.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alma's lowest pressure recorded by land station was 970.2 mb at the Dry Tortugas in the Keys.
Also, in 1995 hurricane Allison occurred in early June over the central Gulf of Mexico.
All I am saying is that although unlikely there have been several occurrences of extremely early hurricanes in this portion of the world.
So I am willing to watch and see.
Also, in 1995 hurricane Allison occurred in early June over the central Gulf of Mexico.
All I am saying is that although unlikely there have been several occurrences of extremely early hurricanes in this portion of the world.
So I am willing to watch and see.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This is egregious even for an experimental model
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The new GFS gets it down to the 940s in the gom...
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Seems to love overstrengthening things, and it doesn't have the resolution drop, so, pressure remains low in the long range.
940s are extremely unlikely.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The current-GFS and the new-GFS are the only two models that even show development in the Western Caribbean. The others show either weak development in the East Pacific off the west coast of Mexico or Central America or no development at all. I would totally ignore the full blown major in the Gulf that the GFS is showing.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
All this tells me is to look for lowering pressures in the ~240 hr range around Central America.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
If development were to occur this would be a good area for it to happen certainly not at the pressures the model is showing. So development here in early June is certainly not out of the question.
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