Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

I saw in twitter a forecast from the University of Arizona but without a link. Does anyone has a link?

I posted it a little further up, but here it is again: http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... l_2020.pdf

Thank you. Is added to the list.

[toad strangler]

When does NOAA come out? June 1st?

[cycloneye]

When does NOAA come out? June 1st?

May 21.

[SFLcane]

When does NOAA come out? June 1st?

Hi Todd,

I am expecting NOAA to come out with some extreme numbers something like 18+ named storms 9-10 hurricanes and 4-5 majors. It’s just looking very favorable during ASO with all the risen motion in the Atlantic. Let’s keep our figures crossed for our steering currents.

[Ivanhater]

If things hold into May, this will be very concerning. How often does the Euro update for its seasonal update? Usually it always shows dry and sinking motion during peak season.

[chaser1]

When does NOAA come out? June 1st?

Hi Todd,

I am expecting NOAA to come out with some extreme numbers something like 18+ named storms 9-10 hurricanes and 4-5 majors. It’s just looking very favorable during ASO with all the risen motion in the Atlantic. Let’s keep our figures crossed for our steering currents.

That is truly the key; Steering and points of origin.

[TheStormExpert]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

I need the link to add to the list.

[aspen]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Another day, another aggressive pre-season forecast — and this one is the most aggressive yet. The consensus on a well above-average to hyperactive season just gets stronger.

At first I was skeptical 2020 could be a hyperactive year in the likes of 2017 or 2010, but I’m starting to change my mind. The only thing holding 2020 back at the moment are the warm surface waters in Nino regions 1-4, despite subsurface cooling (this was talked about more in the ENSO thread).

[SFLcane]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Can you link this forecast?

[SFLcane]

Luis here is the article...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-acti ... ne-season/

[SFLcane]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Again, hold your breath on those steering currents.

[Steve]

Luis here is the article...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-acti ... ne-season/

Obviously concerning to many of us is:

The Gulf of Mexico may see a significantly more active hurricane season, as Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Luis here is the article...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-acti ... ne-season/

Thanks Adrian. Is up.

[TheStormExpert]

NCSU just released their numbers and they’re 18-22 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Again, hold your breath on those steering currents.

Oh I am!

[Pressure]

I’d love to know NCSU’s methodology as well as everyone going bullish.. also, does 22 imply we get to W? I’m pretty sure that’d be a 2nd place finish for a season in the Atlantic, before 1933 in 3rd and obviously after 2005 in 1st

[aspen]

I’d love to know NCSU’s methodology as well as everyone going bullish.. also, does 22 imply we get to W? I’m pretty sure that’d be a 2nd place finish for a season in the Atlantic, before 1933 in 3rd and obviously after 2005 in 1st

22 would get us to Alpha (there are only 21 names per list in the Atlantic).

The TD;DR of the reasoning for these bullish forecasts is because of warmer than average SSTs (especially in the Gulf), possible high moisture and low shear in the Main Development Region, and signs that the ENSO will progress from a weak El Niño to a La Niña by the peak of the season.

[MetroMike]

I’d love to know NCSU’s methodology as well as everyone going bullish.. also, does 22 imply we get to W? I’m pretty sure that’d be a 2nd place finish for a season in the Atlantic, before 1933 in 3rd and obviously after 2005 in 1st

22 would get us to Alpha (there are only 21 names per list in the Atlantic).

The TD;DR of the reasoning for these bullish forecasts is because of warmer than average SSTs (especially in the Gulf), possible high moisture and low shear in the Main Development Region, and signs that the ENSO will progress from a weak El Niño to a La Niña by the peak of the season.

I know it's natural to have a focus on SST this this time of year, but we all know the the SAL is the biggest detriment to development especially in the MDR. Seems it is present every year in the summer.
Are there any predictions for the Easterly trade winds and Sarahan precip patterns being any different than a typical season?

[South Texas Storms]

If things hold into May, this will be very concerning. How often does the Euro update for its seasonal update? Usually it always shows dry and sinking motion during peak season.

It updates once a month (usually by the 5th).

[Astromanía]

Luis here is the article...

https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-acti ... ne-season/

Obviously concerning to many of us is:

The Gulf of Mexico may see a significantly more active hurricane season, as Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.

Oh my