2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1262371430278168577

[GCANE]

Slight chance of a warm core in the BOC about 135 hrs out according to Navy and UK models.
GFS showing a diving, negative-tilt trough with 1010 mb surface pressure.
High CAPE with high TPW coming in from the Pacific over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
355K PV looks like there is an open door.
Watching the future model runs.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS now showing a possible BOC warm core.
Models honing in on sometime Sunday.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF shows a nice wave in the MDR. I say nice for being early June.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1262875497043812353

[CyclonicFury]

The EPS appears to have several members showing development in either the east Pacific, Caribbean, GoM, or western Atlantic in the day 10-15 range. I honestly wouldn't rule out Bertha before June 1.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/mi ... 1200z.html

[SFLcane]

The EPS appears to have several members showing development in either the east Pacific, Caribbean, GoM, or western Atlantic in the day 10-15 range. I honestly wouldn't rule out Bertha before June 1.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/mi ... 1200z.html

Indeed! Just a few of those members

[TheProfessor]

The EPS appears to have several members showing development in either the east Pacific, Caribbean, GoM, or western Atlantic in the day 10-15 range. I honestly wouldn't rule out Bertha before June 1.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/mi ... 1200z.html

Indeed! Just a few of those members

https://i.imgur.com/UjALPpM.png

https://i.imgur.com/W8vPbbh.png

Then there's member 49 that would just be insane. It has a storm sitting in a Gulf for a while before finally hitting Louisiana.

[SFLcane]

For now EPAC is favored in EPS and GEFS.

[TheStormExpert]

For now EPAC is favored in EPS and GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/cxrOlvp.png

Not surprised, only a few of those 50 members or so on yesterday’s 12z run showed development on the Atlantic side. It could always flip.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS now has a surface low offshore of Honduras Tuesday.
My take away is that it looks like models are trying to hone in on something around the Yucatan early next week.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1263105705508143104

[Ubuntwo]

06z GFS has a few possible nodes of development, including a couple possible atlantic subtropical systems and a CAG disturbance.

[SFLcane]

Long rang gfs still showing development heading north from the Carib. At this time it could be either basin.

[Hurricaneman]

Long rang gfs still showing development heading north from the Carib. At this time it could be either basin.

https://i.imgur.com/tZlWXWO.jpg

This solution is not out of the realm of possibility as there will be the mjo in phase one and a CCKW coming through around then but development could also be in the EPAC which is more normal for June but if I’m a betting man I would say a western Caribbean development around the last week of the month or early June

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The 12z EPS spawns a few scattered lows on the Atlantic side by next week, although there is a far greater concentration in the EPAC at the moment.



If not then, then I would look towards mid-June for further development.

[Steve]

It's all getting believable for something in early June, so seeing the models come on board validates them a little (well obviously not if a storm doesn't verify, but...) to me. MJO looks to either rotate back counterclockwise through 4/5/6/7/8/1/2 again in like 2 weeks (so say June 3/4ish) or possibly even shortcut back across the circle from 6 at least toward 2 per the JMA. 2 weeks is a pretty short time early in the season to be on a watch for something. But we'll see.

[aspen]

The Euro and CMC pick up on a tropical wave north of the Greater Antilles at ~200 hrs out. While the Euro has some increased vorticity, the CMC tries to develop it into a TC.

[cainjamin]

GFS has what looks like twins starting around the 200 hour mark - spins something up from the CAG as well as a spin-off of the system the CMC and ECMWF are showing as well. System east of Bermuda appears to hit TS strength before it weakens.

[cainjamin]

GFS then strengthens the Caribbean system into a hurricane in the Bahamas.