Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[ColdMiser123]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 44.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 72 13.0N 44.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 84 13.4N 48.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.07.2020 96 14.0N 53.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 29.07.2020 108 14.7N 56.9W 1004 39
1200UTC 29.07.2020 120 16.3N 60.9W 1001 42
0000UTC 30.07.2020 132 17.3N 64.7W 996 50
1200UTC 30.07.2020 144 17.9N 67.8W 993 51

[AutoPenalti]

The GFS doesn’t have much left of this in a few days as you can see by the simulated IR with a few pops SW of the Cape Verde islands. The real question is once it gets to the Western Atlantic later next week into next weekend, will this wave find some favorable conditions? The GFS says there won’t be enough left of this wave while the Euro insists it will develop.

Notice also from sat imagery how this wave is heavily embedded in the SAL. I expect convection to be on the downward trend the next few days:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

https://i.postimg.cc/j5mpfcFd/gfs-ir-atl-13.png

I 100% do not buy this run, especially in favorable conditions.

[SoupBone]

The GFS doesn’t have much left of this in a few days as you can see by the simulated IR with a few pops SW of the Cape Verde islands. The real question is once it gets to the Western Atlantic later next week into next weekend, will this wave find some favorable conditions? The GFS says there won’t be enough left of this wave while the Euro insists it will develop.

Notice also from sat imagery how this wave is heavily embedded in the SAL. I expect convection to be on the downward trend the next few days:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

https://i.postimg.cc/j5mpfcFd/gfs-ir-atl-13.png

I 100% do not buy this run, especially in favorable conditions.

SAl is still definitely a player for a little while longer, it's not mid-August yet. That has to be considered. If it were mid-August and beyond, I'd be 100% with you.

[TheStormExpert]

Hey Jeremy!

Glad to see on here again. Yep this is one to watch much better moist environment surrounded it.It’s going to head west for a while.

This one is definitely going to have a much more favorable environment as a favorable Kelvin Wave passes. The GFS is lost in my opinion.

The GFS has been lost for a while now. It can’t even see genesis till it’s already happening.

Yep, probably won’t develop this or at least show anything until after the fact that it’s developed.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The GFS doesn’t have much left of this in a few days as you can see by the simulated IR with a few pops SW of the Cape Verde islands. The real question is once it gets to the Western Atlantic later next week into next weekend, will this wave find some favorable conditions? The GFS says there won’t be enough left of this wave while the Euro insists it will develop.

Notice also from sat imagery how this wave is heavily embedded in the SAL. I expect convection to be on the downward trend the next few days:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

https://i.postimg.cc/j5mpfcFd/gfs-ir-atl-13.png

My confidence in the GFS as of late has been running very low. It had to play catch-up with not just Gonzalo and Hanna, but Douglas as well. For the latter, it literally had it as an open wave several hundred miles SW of the Hawaiian islands for a few runs, yet we ended up getting a category 4. I don't know if it's a consequence of lack of proper observational aircraft data due to the pandemic or what, but it has really been off recently, so I am not sure what to think about it right now.

[SFLcane]

12z Icon...

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.0N 44.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 72 13.0N 44.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 84 13.4N 48.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.07.2020 96 14.0N 53.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 29.07.2020 108 14.7N 56.9W 1004 39
1200UTC 29.07.2020 120 16.3N 60.9W 1001 42
0000UTC 30.07.2020 132 17.3N 64.7W 996 50
1200UTC 30.07.2020 144 17.9N 67.8W 993 51

UKMET is on board much more now.

[TheStormExpert]

Still awaiting this afternoon’s 12z Euro run.

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1286697547764039680

[abk_0710]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

What would be the outcome if you follow this out?

[SoupBone]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

What would be the outcome if you follow this out?

A lot of bad stuff for the islands. It rolls right over them.

[caneseddy]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

The classic September CV long range track we are accustomed to. Except a month behind

[TheStormExpert]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

[cycloneye]

Graphic of UKMET.

[SoupBone]

So someone mentioned that some of the models use commercial airline data for model runs. Do we have a list of the ones that use it, how much, etc?

[toad strangler]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

You don't TRUST models.. You USE models. They are tools ... some have different bias and weakness then others.

[SFLcane]

Up to 40%...

A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by
early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%...

A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by
early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

You don't TRUST models.. You USE models. They are tools ... some have different bias and weakness then others.

This hits the nail on the head. It’s also important to understand just how complex the atmosphere is in contrast to how it’s resolved on models. Dorian went through a reasonably complex evolution as its center relocated prior to the islands, which caused significant downstream impacts to track and intensity. And all things considered, Gonzalo is basically a blip on the radar, given its small size and short-lived intensity. Even the NHC couldn’t keep up with its fluctuations.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

You don't TRUST models.. You USE models. They are tools ... some have different bias and weakness then others.

Well we can’t use a model that has bad input! That’s why I don’t consider it a top-tier global model.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 120hrs out.. looks a touch slower than 0z