Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[kevin]

12z ICON has a weak TS Florida landfall at +156 hrs (June 6).

[NDG]

Weather Bell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says TS for Florida peninsula.

Please share.

He seems to be leaning with the Euro, no surprise.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1531266469119635458

[toad strangler]

Meh, don’t really see much in the way of this system, GFS might be off a lot of times but I think it’s handling this a little better now. The worst we can get out of this is a derecho-scale weather.

Ya, well all we have to do is look at the calendar. I don't think anyone sees a significant TC spin up. But, we track.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro continues to show a not so bad UL set up, almost typical for this time of the year in which UL divergence helps to get the surface low to develop, while it tracks over the Yucatan P. to be a broad low pressure with several vorticities rotating around it. A very wet event coming for most of the FL Peninsula for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/wud2jOz.png

Most levels are missing. Show the shear plot

It shows 200-850mb shear of 19 knots, what more do you need?

With dry air upshear that will destroy a core.

[SFLcane]

Euro has surely been more consistent here while the gfs has been all over the place.

[NDG]

Most levels are missing. Show the shear plot

It shows 200-850mb shear of 19 knots, what more do you need?

With dry air upshear that will destroy a core.

No question about it.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1531262399948398592

[Cpv17]

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1531262399948398592?s=20&t=XB5JhvJZAw2NiQMKeUoAzA

I thought it would keep its name? If it’s the remnants then why wouldn’t it retain the name Agatha?

[Teban54]

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1531262399948398592?s=20&t=XB5JhvJZAw2NiQMKeUoAzA

I thought it would keep its name? If it’s the remnants then why wouldn’t it retain the name Agatha?

Storms that cross over between basins only keep the name if it remained a tropical cyclone (i.e. LLC remains intact) during the crossover. Example: Otto 2016.

If the LLC dissipated but the remnants redeveloped into another TC in the other basin, a new name is assigned. Examples: Amanda and Cristobal 2020, Grace and Marty 2021.

Systems that redevelop in the same basin keep their original name. Examples: Harvey 2017, Fred 2021.

[cane5]

What I have always loved about this forum is the really knowledable posters year in and year out. Being a very long time SFLA resident I am very grateful. Happy and safe Hurricane season to all the board members and guests.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in
a few days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha
from the eastern Pacific. This system is forecast to move slowly
eastward or northeastward and gradual development is possible
by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Cpv17]

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1531262399948398592?s=20&t=XB5JhvJZAw2NiQMKeUoAzA

I thought it would keep its name? If it’s the remnants then why wouldn’t it retain the name Agatha?

Storms that cross over between basins only keep the name if it remained a tropical cyclone (i.e. LLC remains intact) during the crossover. Example: Otto 2016.

If the LLC dissipated but the remnants redeveloped into another TC in the other basin, a new name is assigned. Examples: Amanda and Cristobal 2020, Grace and Marty 2021.

Systems that redevelop in the same basin keep their original name. Examples: Harvey 2017, Fred 2021.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[psyclone]

WPC continues to show the most substantial rains 5"+ on their latest output...from Palm beach county down through the keys.

[skyline385]

Timeline moving forward on EURO, almost within 120 hours now

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

Lots of gusts near the coast if this turns out true

[cane5]

Imagine if the terrain was different less mountainous as it crosses Mexico we would have had possibly a event almost unseen historically for the beginning of June. Still it’s a wakeup call we have been pretty lucky only having Irma as a cat 1 been alluding the big one for years now in SFLA.

[skyline385]

Imagine if the terrain was different less mountainous as it crosses Mexico we would have had possibly a event almost unseen historically for the beginning of June. Still it’s a wakeup call we have been pretty lucky only having Irma as a cat 1 been alluding the big one for years now in SFLA.

Honestly if the terrain wasn't this mountainous then this crossover would be more common and we would be used to this path. Also a stronger system crossing over would turn north more quickly.

But yea we have been incredibly lucky last decade and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends soon.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1531334255971905542




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[wxman57]

I agree, looks subtropical on the Euro. Likely a "half storm" with all convection well to the east and dry air on the west side. May go tropical east of Florida. Main threat will be rainfall. I'd give it maybe an 80-90% chance of becoming Alex by Saturday (within 5 days). NHC is being very conservative. I'm thinking PTC advisories start as early as Wednesday but most likely on Thursday. May start out subtropical in the SE Gulf.