Major Hurricane in New York...

[smashmode]

Dont want to think about what a 3 or a 4 would do

Greatest costliest (in terms of $$$$) in the history of mankind?

[Astro_man92]

Dont want to think about what a 3 or a 4 would do

Greatest costliest (in terms of $$$$) in the history of myou also have ankind?

you also have to think of flight level winds that might knock over the scy scrapers so the serf is theleast of there problems if a hurricane of that magnitude hits new york right

[Hurricaneman]

Dont want to think about what a 3 or a 4 would do

Greatest costliest (in terms of $$$$) in the history of myou also have ankind?

you also have to think of flight level winds that might knock over the scy scrapers so the serf is theleast of there problems if a hurricane of that magnitude hits new york right

I would have to say so

[Hurricaneman]

Do you think this is gonna happen in the near future, i sure hope not

[Downdraft]

Two points to add to the nightmare scenario of a major cane hitting New York City. Point one, is the "canyon effect" where the winds would accelerate down the avenues between the skyscrapers. The debris flying down the streets would kill anyone foolish enough to be outside. Point two, the incredible number of people that would seek refuge in the subway system believing that to be a safe place to be. Most would be drowned as the entire subway system would probably fill with storm water. I'm not an engineer but I wouldn't want to ponder a guess on the hydrological stresses to subterranean seawalls built to keep the Hudson and East rivers from flooding Manhattan. Also, I agree with Derek if the cane struck north Jersey and the eastern eyewall passed up the Hudson we'd be looking at the worst natural disaster in recent history, quite possibly dwarfing the tsunami of south Asia in devastation.

[Astro_man92]

Here is my thoughts on a major hurricane hitting New York complete with a made up story at the end to better explain what I'm talking about.
of course the story that will be tied in with my thoughts will end with the best case senario if a hurricane would strike NYC


If a hurricane where to hit New York it would be an economic disaster! K i'll set up a senario and explain my thoughts from there.

Let's say Hurricane Danny was a cat 4 heading for New york. It is about ten days from new york as estimated by the models and the top NHC Scientists 10 of them. (they'd have to do that because since the models are usually so unreliable in this crisis that we would of course need the best of the best s they wouldn't make a mistake tracking this hurricane) Hurricane danny is packing winds of 120 MPH and is strengthening steadily but is forcasted to weaken before it hits New York (if it hits New York).

---------T-minus 9 days---------
After another day, the forcasts have been right so far. Hurricane Danny has continued to follow the forcasted pat. There was a wobble over night but it doesn't phase the Scientists.

---------T-minus 8 days---------
Danny is now near cat 4 status. It is making everyone nervous but this was expected. Winds are now near 134 MPH.

---------T-minus 7 days---------
The scientsist are now debating if they should start exacuating the city or not. They know the consicuances if they make a mistake.

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed ) well you get the idea.

K continuing by T-minus 7 days
the scientists decide to evacuate the city. They are not going to take the chance of millions being killed.

---------T-minus 6 days---------
most take it seriously and some of them panic other take it lightly but do not ignore the evacuation order.

---------T-minus 5 days---------
Hurricane Danny is now a weaking Cat 4 with 137 MPH winds. Danny is now close enough to New York for the scientists to determine that danny will at least hit NYC will it's inner bands. The full evacuation order is put into efect.

---------T-minus 2 days--------- Danny has weakened to a strong cat 3 with winds of 130 MPH. The city is nearly deserted just a few last minute people geting out of there. Danny is forcasted to make a direct hit on eastern NYC.

---------T-minus 7hours--------- Danny has failed to weaken any more than 129 MPH. It is dumping heavy rain fall on NYC.

---------T-minus 2 hours--------- Danny is now over NYC. estimates of the max wind gust was 200 MPH in between two of the sky scrapers buildings are starting to deteriorate
---------T-minus 1 hour--------- Danny is almost to est NYC. estimates say that much of the city is now deteriorated

---------0-------- danny is now over central east NYC the

---------next day---------
Damage reports are amazing every thing has been leveled exept for some of the skeletons from some of the sky scrapers. my cost estimets neary 100 billon. no one survived that was in the city limits


those are my thoughts on what would happen if this did happen

[Radar]

Ok, I definately can see your scenario. Except the fact that I don't think the government would allow the NHC to call for a full fledged evac 7-5 days out. Just imagine the devastation dollar wise if they shut down a city of that size for a week or more. I hate to be a doomsayer but if the dollar IS the root of all evil we will definately see it in a situation like this. As long as there was a chance for the hurricane to miss NYC I dont think the government would allow an evac to be ordered that many days ahead of time.

I tried to do some digging on the internet to see what kind of plans the NYC civil defense department has in place for a direct hit by a catastrophic hurricane but I was unable to find any significant information. If anyone has a website that details this, please post it, I would be interested in reading about it.

Here is a good article on the subject:

http://www.nypress.com/18/29/news&colum ... arstek.cfm

[wxmann_91]

Here is my thoughts on a major hurricane hitting New York complete with a made up story at the end to better explain what I'm talking about.
of course the story that will be tied in with my thoughts will end with the best case senario if a hurricane would strike NYC


If a hurricane where to hit New York it would be an economic disaster! K i'll set up a senario and explain my thoughts from there.

Let's say Hurricane Danny was a cat 4 heading for New york. It is about ten days from new york as estimated by the models and the top NHC Scientists 10 of them. (they'd have to do that because since the models are usually so unreliable in this crisis that we would of course need the best of the best s they wouldn't make a mistake tracking this hurricane) Hurricane danny is packing winds of 120 MPH and is strengthening steadily but is forcasted to weaken before it hits New York (if it hits New York).

---------T-minus 9 days---------
After another day, the forcasts have been right so far. Hurricane Danny has continued to follow the forcasted pat. There was a wobble over night but it doesn't phase the Scientists.

---------T-minus 8 days---------
Danny is now near cat 4 status. It is making everyone nervous but this was expected. Winds are now near 134 MPH.

---------T-minus 7 days---------
The scientsist are now debating if they should start exacuating the city or not. They know the consicuances if they make a mistake.

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed ) well you get the idea.

K continuing by T-minus 7 days
the scientists decide to evacuate the city. They are not going to take the chance of millions being killed.

---------T-minus 6 days---------
most take it seriously and some of them panic other take it lightly but do not ignore the evacuation order.

---------T-minus 5 days---------
Hurricane Danny is now a weaking Cat 4 with 137 MPH winds. Danny is now close enough to New York for the scientists to determine that danny will at least hit NYC will it's inner bands. The full evacuation order is put into efect.

---------T-minus 2 days--------- Danny has weakened to a strong cat 3 with winds of 130 MPH. The city is nearly deserted just a few last minute people geting out of there. Danny is forcasted to make a direct hit on eastern NYC.

---------T-minus 7hours--------- Danny has failed to weaken any more than 129 MPH. It is dumping heavy rain fall on NYC.

---------T-minus 2 hours--------- Danny is now over NYC. estimates of the max wind gust was 200 MPH in between two of the sky scrapers buildings are starting to deteriorate
---------T-minus 1 hour--------- Danny is almost to est NYC. estimates say that much of the city is now deteriorated

---------0-------- danny is now over central east NYC the

---------next day---------
Damage reports are amazing every thing has been leveled exept for some of the skeletons from some of the sky scrapers. my cost estimets neary 100 billon. no one survived that was in the city limits


those are my thoughts on what would happen if this did happen

Unfortunately, your theory has many flaws. NYC would not be evacuated at Day 7; the forecasters can't forecast a hurricane that far. A Cat 3 hurricane wouldn't cause 200 mph gusts, more like 150 mph gusts.

Here's my story of what could happen:

September 17, 2055: A tropical depression is spotted a few hundred miles east of the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches are issued for the Bahamas, as it is expected to track WNW toward the area.

September 18: The tropical depression strengthens to Tropical Storm Xangas. Xangas is moving northwestward, and is strengthening. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Bahamas, the Carolinas are up and ready.

September 19: Xangas defies the forecasters and turns away from the Bahamas.

September 20: Xangas becomes a hurricane. Tropical Storm Watches up from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA state line.

September 21: Xangas passes through the Gulf Stream and rapidly intensifies to a Cat 4 hurricane, with winds of 145 mph. TS Watch upgraded to TS Warning and extended to Chincoteague, MD.

September 22: Xangas peaks at 933 mb pressure and 150 mph winds. TS gusts felt in Cape Hatteras. Minor damage reported. Meanwhile, hurricane watches are up from Chincoteague, MD to Rockport, ME. Forecasted track takes Xangas over Long Island and into Hartford. Mandatory evacuations are put up though for New York City as well as much of the New Jersey coast, the Massachusetts coast from Cape Cod southward, and the Conneticut coast.

September 23: Xangas weakens a bit, but still has 140 mph winds. Hurricane Warnings are up from Chincoteague, MD to Rockport, ME, and TS watches are issued from Rockport, ME to the Canadian border. Xangas is accerlerating, and is expected to make landfall in central Long Island the next morning. Wobble wars at Storm2k continue, with a few saying that it is wobbling west. This is a precursor for what's to come. Late that night, evacuations are called off; it's already too late. Most of left, but many who stay in NYC flee to skyscrapers or the subway.

September 24: Xangas is now definately moving north-northwest, not what forecasters had predicted, and makes landfall in Long Branch, New Jersey around 9:00 AM EDT, with winds of 135 mph. Half hour later, it makes its second landfall in eastern Staten Island as a strong Cat 3, and continues northward, its eye passing through Bayonne and Jersey City. The storm surge on the eastern part of the storm cuts through Hudson River. The eastern eyewall pounds the skyscrapers of NYC, and they collapse. A 20 ft storm surge sweeps away the Statue of Liberty, JFK Airport, Coney Island, George Washington Bridge, the Verazano Narrows Bridge, the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Williamsport Bridges, Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Manhattan. Most who stay are killed, but the lack of communication makes it impossible to know what is happening. But the story isn't over just yet, as the storm moves northward, it curves eastward, and hurricane force gusts are reported as north as Albany. During the night, the people inland just think that this will pass away from them, but because Xangas turns before hitting the mountains, the moisture gets piled up onto them from the hurricane, causing numerous dam breaks and major flooding all over New England. That night, all hurricane warnings are cancelled as Xangas weakens to a TS.

September 25: The full scope of devastation is seen. Thousands are dead in New York City. Damage is estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This is one of the worst disasters ever for the US. And New England's flooding causes additional damage and death.

Afterwards: Wall Street is submerged in water. NYC is declared a toxic wasteland, sewage is flooding the streets and it takes a week for the water to clear. Out of the three airports in NYC, all of them have extensive damage, and JFK has been washed away, as has the Statue of Liberty, the eastern end of Staten Island, many of the bridges, Coney Island, and extensive storm surge island is reported all the way to Fire Island. America's stock market has crashed, and it has now become a very poor country. 10,000 people have died and $450 billion dollars of damage in NYC. 33 people have died and $3 billion damage in New England. TOTAL catastrophe.

EDITED to add doomsday track:

[WXFIEND]

Living in Jersey City near the Newark Bay, that is NOT encouraging story. You thinks thats how it is likely to play out? It'd be interesting to see an eye here, but still... thats SCARY!! My houe would be submerged....

[Radar]

Wow, how surreal Wxmann but I believe your details of the scenario are quite realistic. However, I do believe this type of catastrophic hurricane will be seen before 2055. I also believe politics will determine an evacuation order, I sincerely believe that, and as a hurricane churns Northward in the Atlantic it tends to move faster and wobble more. In the best case scenario an evac order would be given 72 hours before landfall but more likely 48 hours or less it will be called. Which means many people who wait until the last minute wont get out at all. I think the death rate is inconceivable at this point, but it will be thousands IF not tens of thousands or even 100 thousand. Then there is the aftermath with a million people homeless, the financial center devastated etc.... It is beyond our realm of imagination!!!

[Astro_man92]

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed

are these resonable???????[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img] or [img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/Noooo.gif[/img]

[sweetpea]

wxmann_91 your post is scary. I grew up about 20 minutes south of Long Branch in Belmar, NJ. Everything you said is devastating. Have alot of family in those areas that you mentioned. Hope something like this never happens.

[Astro_man92]

wxmann_91 this would not only effect the USA but th whole world and it would be the worst disaster to ever happen on earth.




whow whow whow hasn't tokyo been hit by a major typhoone?????????

tokyo is the kargest city in the world(Poputaion wise)

[wxmann_91]

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed

are these resonable???????[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img] or [img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/Noooo.gif[/img]

[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img]

But the impacts you write of are underestimated. Remember that all the major bridges (Brooklyn, George Washington, Verezano Narrows, Williamsburg, Manhattan, even the Tappan Zee, Bronx Whitestone, and Throgs Neck, to some extent) will be washed away. Undoubtedly the Statue of Liberty will be gone. The LaGuardia Airport and JFK Airport will be washed away, but that is the least of the problems. All the skyscrapers - Chrysler Building, Empire State Building, the future Freedom Tower, washed away or collapsed by wind. Subway and Wall Street gone. World Trade Center gone. Ellis Island gone. Much of Manhattan, including the buildings, Madison Square Garden, Central Park, Lincoln Center, Chinatown gone. And don't forget the Hudson and East Rivers will funnel the surge well inland, to northern portions of NYC like the Bronx. Yankee Stadium gone. And Brooklyn and Coney Island will be gone. As I said, it'll be a TOTAL catastrophe, and the economy of the United States will go down in a BIG way.

EDIT: OK I think I'm scaring everybody so I'll shut up now, nothing more to say about the devastation that is inevitable in the next hundred years.

[Astro_man92]

there should be a thread where people can post there thoughts/stories on this topic and another thread where they comment on there thoughts


here is a map in a way

thoughts/stories thread------------------>comments thread
thoughts/stories thread<------------------comments thread
they are linked see

[Astro_man92]

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed

are these resonable???????[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img] or [img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/Noooo.gif[/img]

[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img]

But the impacts you write of are underestimated. Remember that all the major bridges (Brooklyn, George Washington, Verezano Narrows, Williamsburg, Manhattan, even the Tappan Zee, Bronx Whitestone, and Throgs Neck, to some extent) will be washed away. Undoubtedly the Statue of Liberty will be gone. The LaGuardia Airport and JFK Airport will be washed away, but that is the least of the problems. All the skyscrapers - Chrysler Building, Empire State Building, the future Freedom Tower, washed away or collapsed by wind. Subway and Wall Street gone. World Trade Center gone. Ellis Island gone. Much of Manhattan, including the buildings, Madison Square Garden, Central Park, Lincoln Center, Chinatown gone. And don't forget the Hudson and East Rivers will funnel the surge well inland, to northern portions of NYC like the Bronx. Yankee Stadium gone. And Brooklyn and Coney Island will be gone. As I said, it'll be a TOTAL catastrophe, and the economy of the United States will go down in a BIG way.

EDIT: OK I think I'm scaring everybody so I'll shut up now, nothing more to say about the devastation that is inevitable in the next hundred years.

the world trade center is gone it was the twin towers in 9/11

EDIT: oh and not to mention how long it will take to rebuild and it will be an entirekly new city with in about 30 years to rebuild to what i tis now

[mahicks]

Question??

Has A sky Scraper EVER tumbled in a hurricane??? ANYWHERE???

I don't think I've EVER heard of that happening.

If so, could someone post a link??

[Astro_man92]

I don't think any hurricane has even hit a city with a skyscraper and if a hurricanes has hit a city with a sky scraper I don't hink it was strong enough

[mahicks]

I don't think any hurricane has even hit a city with a skyscraper and if a hurricanes has hit a city with a sky scraper I don't hink it was strong enough

I've seen quite a few "sky scrapers" on some of the islands. What about Andrew in S FLA?

[wxmann_91]

What are the consicuances?
The consicuances are they are quite simple. Lets divide them into two groups the Economics and the Civilans.

Economics
For the Economics they will lose no matter what if the hurricane strikes, and if the scientists make a mistake and evacuate the city but the Hurricane does not strike. Why u ask. Well it is quite simple if the Hurricane strikes the city will be destroyed and the whole country and possibly other parts of the world will suffer from the economic damage. Because NYC has an important port, is practicly the buisness center of the whole country, and we will lose countless landmarks, skyscapers, small buisnesses, and anything else you can think of. That is only digging in a little. and If the city doesn't get hit but they are evacuated it will be bad only because Imports and Exports wil be delayed greatly.

Civilians
Just think of it like this, it is not really as bad as the Economic devistation but tink of it as 4 or 5 times worse then 9/11!!! It really just blows my mind. think of how ling it would take to rebuild the city the where it is now. Here is a clue Decades or maybe even a century. This wil be the biggest disaster since, never mind I can't even compare it to anything.think of all the buisnesses, people, landmaks,( holy crap the statue of liberty will possibly be destroyed

are these resonable???????[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img] or [img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/Noooo.gif[/img]

[img]http://home.cfl.rr.com/smileypage/look's%20temp%20smiley%20page/082502yes_prv.gif[/img]

But the impacts you write of are underestimated. Remember that all the major bridges (Brooklyn, George Washington, Verezano Narrows, Williamsburg, Manhattan, even the Tappan Zee, Bronx Whitestone, and Throgs Neck, to some extent) will be washed away. Undoubtedly the Statue of Liberty will be gone. The LaGuardia Airport and JFK Airport will be washed away, but that is the least of the problems. All the skyscrapers - Chrysler Building, Empire State Building, the future Freedom Tower, washed away or collapsed by wind. Subway and Wall Street gone. World Trade Center gone. Ellis Island gone. Much of Manhattan, including the buildings, Madison Square Garden, Central Park, Lincoln Center, Chinatown gone. And don't forget the Hudson and East Rivers will funnel the surge well inland, to northern portions of NYC like the Bronx. Yankee Stadium gone. And Brooklyn and Coney Island will be gone. As I said, it'll be a TOTAL catastrophe, and the economy of the United States will go down in a BIG way.

EDIT: OK I think I'm scaring everybody so I'll shut up now, nothing more to say about the devastation that is inevitable in the next hundred years.

the world trade center is gone it was the twin towers in 9/11

EDIT: oh and not to mention how long it will take to rebuild and it will be an entirekly new city with in about 30 years to rebuild to what i tis now

I know the Twin Towers and 7 World Trade Center are gone, but aren't the other buildings of the WTC there? And if not I meant the site of the WTC.