We are now fat with water on the ground, the bay is a nice rich brown and it looks like more to come. The hummingbirds are going crazy in the gardens!
Oops...make that - more to come is NOW.
94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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cycloneye
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WHXX04 KWBC 061121
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 9.3 41.5 280./19.0
6 9.3 42.8 269./13.6
12 9.8 43.8 300./10.8
18 10.6 44.5 320./10.4
24 11.5 45.2 321./11.1
30 12.1 46.3 300./12.7
36 13.2 47.2 319./14.1
42 14.3 47.6 339./11.1
48 15.4 47.9 344./11.9
54 16.6 48.3 344./12.1
60 17.6 48.5 349./10.4
66 18.4 48.9 330./ 9.1
72 19.0 49.4 321./ 6.9
78 19.4 50.0 306./ 7.5
84 20.0 50.5 321./ 7.5
90 20.4 50.5 352./ 4.2
96 20.7 51.4 288./ 8.2
102 20.9 52.0 288./ 5.8
108 21.0 52.4 286./ 3.8
114 21.0 52.9 273./ 5.2
120 21.0 53.4 266./ 4.5
126 21.0 53.6 275./ 2.2
You can notice that GFDL bends back to the west at the end of the run.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 9.3 41.5 280./19.0
6 9.3 42.8 269./13.6
12 9.8 43.8 300./10.8
18 10.6 44.5 320./10.4
24 11.5 45.2 321./11.1
30 12.1 46.3 300./12.7
36 13.2 47.2 319./14.1
42 14.3 47.6 339./11.1
48 15.4 47.9 344./11.9
54 16.6 48.3 344./12.1
60 17.6 48.5 349./10.4
66 18.4 48.9 330./ 9.1
72 19.0 49.4 321./ 6.9
78 19.4 50.0 306./ 7.5
84 20.0 50.5 321./ 7.5
90 20.4 50.5 352./ 4.2
96 20.7 51.4 288./ 8.2
102 20.9 52.0 288./ 5.8
108 21.0 52.4 286./ 3.8
114 21.0 52.9 273./ 5.2
120 21.0 53.4 266./ 4.5
126 21.0 53.6 275./ 2.2
You can notice that GFDL bends back to the west at the end of the run.
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StormWarning1
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051006 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051006 1200 051007 0000 051007 1200 051008 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 42.0W 9.9N 44.7W 11.3N 47.0W 12.9N 48.9W
BAMM 8.7N 42.0W 9.9N 44.8W 11.3N 47.0W 12.8N 48.6W
A98E 8.7N 42.0W 9.1N 44.9W 9.6N 47.7W 10.1N 50.2W
LBAR 8.7N 42.0W 9.9N 44.6W 11.3N 47.2W 12.5N 49.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051008 1200 051009 1200 051010 1200 051011 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 50.4W 17.8N 52.4W 19.6N 53.8W 19.4N 55.6W
BAMM 14.1N 49.9W 16.1N 52.0W 17.3N 54.0W 17.7N 56.3W
A98E 10.5N 52.2W 12.0N 55.9W 13.6N 59.1W 15.6N 61.9W
LBAR 13.9N 51.5W 17.3N 54.5W 21.3N 56.1W 24.4N 56.5W
SHIP 49KTS 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 39.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
12:00z Models.I am noticing that the BAN models are trending a little more west than in past runs.
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Graphic of above models... definite trend West at end of run:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=94
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=94
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cycloneye
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skysummit wrote:Cycloneye, are you beginning to get a little concerned?
No not yet but if the system continues to be at that very low latitud then the concern may rise for the people in the lesser antilles but is still a good 4-5 days away from the islands and we have to see how the trough in the atlantic interacts with 94.
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cycloneye
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06/1145 UTC 8.4N 40.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
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skysummit
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Marilyn wrote:skysummit wrote:cycloneye wrote:06/1145 UTC 8.4N 40.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Uh Ohhh....that's a first for 94L.
What does these numbers mean?? Thks Marilyn
Basically 1.0 is a "first step" to becoming a depression....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html[/img]
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Thank you skyskysummit wrote:Marilyn wrote:skysummit wrote:cycloneye wrote:06/1145 UTC 8.4N 40.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Uh Ohhh....that's a first for 94L.
What does these numbers mean?? Thks Marilyn
Basically 1.0 is a "first step" to becoming a depression....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html[/img]
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caneman
N2FSU wrote:Graphic of above models... definite trend West at end of run:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=94
Not good they are turning back west at the end of the run.
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bvigal
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I don't think it would classify as a CV storm. It would be perhaps unusual, but not any kind of record, for a tropical wave to become a TS this time of year in the Atlantic:
2001 Jerry crossed south of Barbados
1999 Hurricane Jose 17-25Oct crossed over BVI
1995 TS Sebatian 20-25 Oct crossed over St. Croix
1995 TS Pablo 4-8 Oct, lost tropical cyclone characteristics just before reaching Barbados.
Knowing the better perfomance of BAMs at low lattitude, and seeing their change this run, I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility that this could make it to our neighborhood as something tropical.
2001 Jerry crossed south of Barbados
1999 Hurricane Jose 17-25Oct crossed over BVI
1995 TS Sebatian 20-25 Oct crossed over St. Croix
1995 TS Pablo 4-8 Oct, lost tropical cyclone characteristics just before reaching Barbados.
Knowing the better perfomance of BAMs at low lattitude, and seeing their change this run, I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility that this could make it to our neighborhood as something tropical.
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SkeetoBite
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