Tropical Depression Basyang at WPAC

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
330 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006

PMZ171-051800-
YAP-
330 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YAP STATE...

AS OF 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU AND 185 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP.

TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH...AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES SOUTH OF NGULU AND YAP THIS EVENING...
NGULU CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. YAP MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
TONIGHT. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED DUE TO BUILDING SEAS
AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES OR COMMUNICATION DEVICES UNTIL THE
THREAT HAS PASSED.

$$
PRIOR

[P.K.]

FXPQ20 RJTD 050600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 050600UTC 06.1N 138.0E
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 05.2N 137.6E +001HPA -003KT
T=12 04.7N 137.5E -001HPA -003KT
T=18 04.7N 137.0E -001HPA 000KT
T=24 05.0N 136.3E -004HPA +005KT
T=30 05.2N 135.2E -003HPA +006KT
T=36 05.7N 133.7E -005HPA +009KT
T=42 05.9N 131.9E -005HPA +012KT
T=48 06.2N 130.4E /////// +017KT
T=54 06.6N 128.6E /////// +019KT
T=60 07.2N 126.9E /////// +021KT
T=66 07.5N 124.7E -004HPA +007KT
T=72 07.9N 123.5E /////// +015KT
T=78 08.5N 122.1E -005HPA +016KT
T=84 08.7N 120.2E /////// +015KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

------------------------------------------

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.03.2006


TROPICAL STORM 01W ANALYSED POSITION : 5.9N 137.9E


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.03.2006 5.9N 137.9E WEAK

12UTC 05.03.2006 5.8N 137.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.03.2006 5.4N 135.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.03.2006 4.6N 133.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.03.2006 3.9N 130.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.03.2006 4.2N 128.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.03.2006 5.1N 126.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.03.2006 6.9N 122.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.03.2006 7.7N 119.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.03.2006 8.5N 116.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.03.2006 8.9N 114.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.03.2006 9.4N 112.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.03.2006 10.3N 111.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression
Issued at 15:00 UTC 5 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 06.2N 137.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 06.2N 135.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT

[James]

Looks like a bit of a flare-up going on right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking much better big flare up. Lets see if it can strengthing.

[HURAKAN]

VOILA! A HUGE FLARE-UP IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. LET SEE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A BETTER "LOOKING" FUTURE FOR 01W!

[James]

The centre appears to have relocated. The JTWC have noted this in their latest advisory, and they have also bumped the system back to a tropical depression. Let's see how the official advisory reacts to the system.

[JonathanBelles]

when doen the next advisory come out EST?

[HURAKAN]

when doen the next advisory come out EST?

JTWC: around 10 PM edt

[JonathanBelles]

ok so they come out over there about the same time they come out over here

[JonathanBelles]

but if that were true wouldn't one have just come out at 4:00

[HURAKAN]

but if that were true wouldn't one have just come out at 4:00

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 6.7N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 6.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 7.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 7.5N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 8.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 138.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AFTER
A 051028Z QUIKSCAT AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAD FORMED AT THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A MONSOON TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-
EAST IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z,
060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

thanx

[JonathanBelles]

what site did u get that from?

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression
Issued at 21:00 UTC 5 Mar 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 06.5N 137.8E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 06.5N 135.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT

FXPQ20 RJTD 051800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 051800UTC 06.3N 137.9E
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 05.1N 137.4E +001HPA +001KT
T=12 05.0N 137.1E -001HPA -001KT
T=18 05.3N 136.3E +001HPA +002KT
T=24 05.7N 135.1E -001HPA +005KT
T=30 06.1N 133.6E +001HPA +005KT
T=36 06.6N 132.4E -002HPA +005KT
T=42 07.2N 130.8E 000HPA +007KT
T=48 07.8N 129.2E -001HPA +007KT
T=54 08.2N 127.9E -001HPA +012KT
T=60 08.8N 126.5E -004HPA +014KT
T=66 09.3N 125.2E -002HPA +016KT
T=72 09.9N 124.2E -002HPA +013KT
T=78 10.7N 122.9E 000HPA +012KT
T=84 11.2N 122.3E -002HPA +011KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

[HURAKAN]

what site did u get that from?

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

[JonathanBelles]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gmssht.GIF

will this high level of shear hurt 01w?

[senorpepr]

The blue areas won't.

The green areas will probably affect the storm some.

The yellow areas and higher will kill the storm.

[JonathanBelles]

i was talking about the white band to the north of 01w