Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB said he has his work cut out for him regarding the GOM later this week. We should see a "classic trof split" and he said that the pattern is very close to what created Hurricane Alice in 1954 ( http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Alice1_1954_track.png/800px-Alice1_1954_track.png ). Pretty much it looks like he is (still) thinking a Mexico or Texas threat could be in the works starting later this week and into the following week.

He also has said the following today:

- The flood threat in the NE should continue for the next 5 days.

-The system over FL should bring heavy rains to the Carolinas and create gale force gusts on the east coast.

-Western heat should move east this upcoming weekend (reaching the east coast by next week).

[stpeteweathergal]

Do we have anything new from JB today?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nothing much yet. He has been talking about the system just south of NC right now though. He says to expect heavy rain and gale force gusts along the path of this system along the coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight JB says to expect "at the very least" heavy rains in parts of TX this weekend from the system in the NW Caribbean. He said he is unsure about if something can really get developed into something tropical until this reaches the gulf.

At this point, IMO, I think that the very least that could happen is a heavy rain event for TX, and at the very most a Cat. 1/2 hurricane. The exact timing, strength and track of this coming "disturbance" is still highly uncertain though. Looks like late this week through the weekend is still the time to watch.

[Stratusxpeye]

is it me or has almost every system for potential devolpment this year been over the weekend. Alberto, 91l when it was near bahamas and severl other TWO's that have mentioned disturbances say to watch later in the week over weekend. Hmm hope this trend don't continue I like my weekends.

[AJC3]

is it me or has almost every system for potential devolpment this year been over the weekend. Alberto, 91l when it was near bahamas and severl other TWO's that have mentioned disturbances say to watch later in the week over weekend. Hmm hope this trend don't continue I like my weekends.

You'll love this quote then...

"There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends." ...Arnot Sheppard

[Johnny]

EWG, Texas has a rather long coast line. What area of Texas is he mentioning for at least heavy rain?

[Tampa_God]

I believe the Galveston area

[cheezyWXguy]

I hope so...if it keeps moving north then that would mean rain for me in dallas!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

right now it looks like the brunt of the rain will be along the southern and central TX coast, but he said he will have a better idea once this gets into the Gulf.

[jusforsean]

just want to say thanks to those who post the jb info as i find it interesting and i dont subscribe so i otherwise would be unable to read it

[Extremeweatherguy]

This really does not have to do with JB, but I wanted to point out that this 72 hour forecast (evening of Jul 1st) looks quite ominous for the Gulf:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Would not be surprised to see development out of that wave in the Gulf or BOC sometime between the 2nd and 5th of July.

BTW: I leave for Raleigh, NC on the 6th of July. Hopefully if something forms it will either come before I leave or miss us. I would not want it to interfere with my flight.

[wxman57]

This really does not have to do with JB, but I wanted to point out that this 72 hour forecast (evening of Jul 1st) looks quite ominous for the Gulf:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Would not be surprised to see development out of that wave in the Gulf or BOC sometime between the 2nd and 5th of July.

BTW: I leave for Raleigh, NC on the 6th of July. Hopefully if something forms it will either come before I leave or miss us. I would not want it to interfere with my flight.

I don't see anything ominous on the graphic. It seems to imply that there could be a low in the far southwest Caribbean Sea tht would likely track across Central America into the Pacific. Note the ridge axis across the northern Gulf on the map. There will also be high pressure aloft across the Gulf by the weekend. That means mid, lower, and upper level flow will mostly be from east to west.

Now I DO think that the wave in the east Caribbean could well develop in the BoC and reach weak TS strength on a track similar to Bret or Jose of last year. More likely, though, it'll remain just another wave that too many people get excited about for nothing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB continues to say that a trough split will lead to "at least" heavy south Texas rains, but he also said that is could mean "even more". Looks like the NWS agrees with him. Still watching to see though if that "even more" (potential TC) plays out.

[Johnny]

JB could be on to something with the recent massive blow up of convection in the BOC. Something looks a bit fishy down that way.

[HouTXmetro]

JB continues to say that a trough split will lead to "at least" heavy south Texas rains, but he also said that is could mean "even more". Looks like the NWS agrees with him. Still watching to see though if that "even more" (potential TC) plays out.

IF there is a trough split, wouldn't that steer the potential BOC TC to the N-NE?

[Steve]

>>IF there is a trough split, wouldn't that steer the potential BOC TC to the N-NE?

Not usually. The trof splits peel a piece back off to the SW as the rest of the trof moves out NE. A piece of energy sitting below a trof can do virtually anything (depending on variables of course).

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

**Same as posted on invest thread.**

JB just put out a long post about the BOC system tonight, and here is the latest:

-JB thinks the trough split coming will allow shear to decrease over the system and rapid development could occur.

-He said everything is in place for development, but whether it does actually pull through and do so is still yet to be seen.

-The upper trough is breaking away from the system and a ridge could take it's place allowing good outflow for the system.

-He is "convinced" that the MLC is over water and will stay over water through Saturday as it heads NW.

-The wave coming quickly through the west Caribbean may add extra fuel to this system.

-Unlike last year he says this WILL NOT head west directly into Mexico, but rather north or northwest.

-He says if this does get going, then it could explode into a beast real quickly.

-At the very least tons of rain is coming to south/southeast Texas.

-He is watching this area VERY VERY closely.

And so this is where he stands right now, and I think his thoughts are enough to get anyone in Texas concerned! We could be in for an interesting period of weather.

By the way here is a look at the surface forecast from the NHC to see that wave in the west Caribbean:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[HouTXmetro]

**Same as posted on invest thread.**

JB just put out a long post about the BOC system tonight, and here is the latest:

-JB thinks the trough split coming will allow shear to decrease over the system and rapid development could occur.

-He said everything is in place for development, but whether it does actually pull through and do so is still yet to be seen.

-The upper trough is breaking away from the system and a ridge could take it's place allowing good outflow for the system.

-He is "convinced" that the MLC is over water and will stay over water through Saturday as it heads NW.

-The wave coming quickly through the west Caribbean may add extra fuel to this system.

-Unlike last year he says this WILL NOT head west directly into Mexico, but rather north or northwest.

-He says if this does get going, then it could explode into a beast real quickly.

-At the very least tons of rain is coming to south/southeast Texas.

-He is watching this area VERY VERY closely.

And so this is where he stands right now, and I think his thoughts are enough to get anyone in Texas concerned! We could be in for an interesting period of weather.

By the way here is a look at the surface forecast from the NHC to see that wave in the west Caribbean:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Two questions

1. How soon will that Carrib wave make it to the BOC

2. Does upper level winds indicate an MLC over water?

[Extremeweatherguy]

**Same as posted on invest thread.**

JB just put out a long post about the BOC system tonight, and here is the latest:

-JB thinks the trough split coming will allow shear to decrease over the system and rapid development could occur.

-He said everything is in place for development, but whether it does actually pull through and do so is still yet to be seen.

-The upper trough is breaking away from the system and a ridge could take it's place allowing good outflow for the system.

-He is "convinced" that the MLC is over water and will stay over water through Saturday as it heads NW.

-The wave coming quickly through the west Caribbean may add extra fuel to this system.

-Unlike last year he says this WILL NOT head west directly into Mexico, but rather north or northwest.

-He says if this does get going, then it could explode into a beast real quickly.

-At the very least tons of rain is coming to south/southeast Texas.

-He is watching this area VERY VERY closely.

And so this is where he stands right now, and I think his thoughts are enough to get anyone in Texas concerned! We could be in for an interesting period of weather.

By the way here is a look at the surface forecast from the NHC to see that wave in the west Caribbean:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Two questions

1. How soon will that Carrib wave make it to the BOC

2. Does upper level winds indicate an MLC over water?

1.The Caribbean wave will likely reach the Gulf by the weekend.

2. I do not know this answer. I am only relaying what JB posted, and have not done research on that myself.