98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20


Same stuff they said before. nothing has changed

[Jim Cantore]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87230&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=20

Thats a link to this thread

[KatDaddy]

Same thing all afternoon. Nothing new and its still way to close to land. The only chance I see for any tropical development would be if a low were to form further E in the heavy convection over the W GOM. Something that could happen with convective bursts

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87230&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=20

Thats a link to this thread

I know that. I see the obvious doesn't escape you I was saying they said the same thing the last time.

[Stormavoider]

[Rainband]

:grrr:

[wxman57]

As far as I can see, wind shear remains strong over the offshore squalls. Latest surface analysis indicates pressures are generally lower toward Tampico, but there is no evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98L.gif

Most of the convection should be inland in the next 24 hours, so chances of any significant change before then are low. Looks like we'll be getting some heavy rain in Texas, though.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060725 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060725 0000 060725 1200 060726 0000 060726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 97.9W 23.9N 98.0W 25.0N 97.7W 25.8N 97.8W
BAMM 22.5N 97.9W 24.2N 98.4W 25.5N 98.2W 26.6N 98.3W
A98E 22.5N 97.9W 23.5N 97.7W 24.7N 97.4W 26.1N 97.4W
LBAR 22.5N 97.9W 23.8N 98.5W 25.3N 99.0W 26.3N 99.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060727 0000 060728 0000 060729 0000 060730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 98.3W 29.0N 101.1W 31.0N 103.5W 31.7N 104.8W
BAMM 27.7N 98.5W 30.2N 100.6W 32.5N 102.5W 34.1N 103.3W
A98E 27.7N 97.4W 30.3N 98.4W 32.6N 98.6W 35.0N 97.4W
LBAR 27.1N 99.9W 28.8N 101.3W 31.4N 103.3W 35.1N 103.8W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 53KTS 50KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 97.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 97.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z BAM Models.I only post this for information to the members as there is no closed LLC at this time.

[Stormavoider]

If there is no LLC or MLC in the general neighborhood of 25N 95W, why has there been a deformity in the convection in that ballpark area all day? There has been an overall northward movement of the broad system. But, this area has consistently seemed to be an eye catcher. What's up with that????

[kjun]

I agree with you Stormavoider. There must be something trying to develop in that area. Squalls continue to blow-up in that general area.

[wxman57]

If there is no LLC or MLC in the general neighborhood of 25N 95W, why has there been a deformity in the convection in that ballpark area all day? There has been an overall northward movement of the broad system. But, this area has consistently seemed to be an eye catcher. What's up with that????

What curving you're seeing in the convection is due to a mid-level vorticity center. You can see it initialized on the 18Z GFS (850mb vorticity):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_000m.gif

And on the NAM/WRF (500mb vorticity):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

But there appears to be no evidence of anything but a very weak surface trof (if that) along the Mexico coast.

[Steve]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

What I'm seeing is rain. And lots of it. It's raining again here and thundering. That would be 6ish storms passing through today so far. Lots of moisture from off the Texas coast through LA, MS, AL, GA, FL and SC. This system is a nice little tropical rainmaker. A band through Lafourche, Jefferson and Orleans is in the 2.5 range and should go higher (as should most of the rest of the raingauges in the southeast). This one is just a break from the summer heat. Nothing wrong with a little minor tropical weather (especially after 2004 and 2005 ).

Steve

[KatDaddy]

Hey wxman57 thanks for posting and keeping the reality. It will be a rainmaker but very far from a true tropical threat.

[Stormavoider]

If there is no LLC or MLC in the general neighborhood of 25N 95W, why has there been a deformity in the convection in that ballpark area all day? There has been an overall northward movement of the broad system. But, this area has consistently seemed to be an eye catcher. What's up with that????

What curving you're seeing in the convection is due to a mid-level vorticity center. You can see it initialized on the 18Z GFS (850mb vorticity):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_000m.gif

And on the NAM/WRF (500mb vorticity):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

But there appears to be no evidence of anything but a very weak surface trof (if that) along the Mexico coast.

Thank you for the explanation. I have been watching this area since this morning. Both times it seemed to decide to move north we saw a drastic bump in winds at 42002. I thought I was really on to something.

[wxman57]

Thank you for the explanation. I have been watching this area since this morning. Both times it seemed to decide to move north we saw a drastic bump in winds at 42055. I thought I was really on to something.

Those squalls that hit the buoy(s) were moving northward at 25-30 kts. Such squalls can easily produce straight-line winds to 50-60 kts over the water.

[Stormavoider]

Ya, I thought I had it going on. I predicted a bump in winds there and one hour later they jumped from like 14 to 40 knts.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH VERY NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST...CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS
THIS DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Stormcenter]

This is a nice loop of 98L and it looks like "maybe" something it trying to
get going further north and east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[ROCK]

This is a nice loop of 98L and it looks like "maybe" something it trying to
get going further north and east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

I agree with that.....elongated for sure but if you look in the middle of the mess.. a twist? maybe....

[Dean4Storms]

As posted much earlier about this area there just isn't enough time for it to develop into much if at all. Between the Shear and its proximity to land it just won't have time to become much more than a heavy rain maker for the N and NW Gulf Coasts.

I still think the one to watch is the stubborn low embedded in the TW east of the Antilles. When a system can hold its own through that much dry air it gets my attention especially as it gets closer to the islands at the same time as the MJO is moving in. I still believe it could be a Florida problem down the road.