TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[angelwing]

Remember what they said about 2005 not following climatetology? Florence might be doing the same thing

[Evil Jeremy]

Flo Jo's still at 50 mph.. well, maybe @ 5 am..

I think that is lowballed - they should consider sending a Recon into her...

that will be a reality in just a few hours now!

[Bailey1777]

Derek or somebody why does this system look like it does. It just does not look right. (not talking about from an orginization standpoint but more like it seems like some phatom thing is fighting Flo for the same area) Sure this sounds stupid but something just looks funny.

[EDR1222]

Maybe Florence will surprise the forecasters and not strenthen. Hopefully that will be the case if it comes close to Bermuda as forecasted.

I wonder if maybe there is some dry air being pulled up from the south that is inhibiting organization at the present time.

[CrazyC83]

Looks its best yet - clear outflow now and its shape is forming:

[gatorcane]

Maybe Florence will surprise the forecasters and not strenthen. Hopefully that will be the case if it comes close to Bermuda as forecasted.

I wonder if maybe there is some dry air being pulled up from the south that is inhibiting organization at the present time.

I fully understand. I called this earlier today. Its because it has dry air being funneled in from the dissipating ULL that was off to its west. I can't see why the NHC is dumbfounded by this.....

You can clearly see it sucking in dry air now as we speak...you can see where the ULL (was) and although weaker is still just barely there.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

this has not intensified, as the atmosphere is not favorable for intensification and it has not been

The RH is a very critical component to intensification as in a dry environment, you cannot sustain convection

[gatorcane]

this has not intensified, as the atmosphere is not favorable for intensification and it has not been

The RH is a very critical component to intensification as in a dry environment, you cannot sustain convection

Yep pretty much jinx

[theworld]

Interesting note, AcuWeather is not predicting as such, but suggesting the possibility of an East Coast landfall if the .... "High remains strong enough in its current position, Florence's swing towards the North Atlantic will not take place until after the storm batters the East Coast."

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Florence will surprise the forecasters and not strenthen. Hopefully that will be the case if it comes close to Bermuda as forecasted.

I wonder if maybe there is some dry air being pulled up from the south that is inhibiting organization at the present time.

I fully understand. I called this earlier today. Its because it has dry air being funneled in from the dissipating ULL that was off to its west. I can't see why the NHC is dumbfounded by this.....

You can clearly see it sucking in dry air now as we speak...you can see where the ULL (was) and although weaker is still just barely there.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

BINGO!!! That explains it very well! It likely has a few more hours of it to go...the tans have become medium-dark browns but some still remains...

[jaxfladude]

Interesting note, AcuWeather is not predicting as such, but suggesting the possibility of an East Coast landfall if the .... "High remains strong enough in its current position, Florence's swing towards the North Atlantic will not take place until after the storm batters the East Coast."

AcuWeather giving a 10% of a New England hit.........right up their alley or close enough.......

Some pics here:
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/ ... s0_430.jpg

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/ ... s1_430.jpg

Pray that if that 10% actually happens that it no where near a cat3 at landfall as shown on AccuWeather.com

[curtadams]

this has not intensified, as the atmosphere is not favorable for intensification and it has not been

The RH is a very critical component to intensification as in a dry environment, you cannot sustain convection

Florence is not having a problem with lack of convection! She's got a CDO of about 200 by 300 miles. No good banding, true, but that can't be the reason.

[Derek Ortt]

that currently is nothing even close to a CDO

The center would be in he middle if that was a CDO

It probably WILL become a CDO by this time tomorrow as I expect the effects of the UL to get out of the way. However, the past few days, it has not sustained its convective bursts... which is common in dry environments as dry air enduces downward motion

[theworld]

Flo has some feathering goings on on her south side....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The unfaverable Enviroment of the Atlantic for the last few months is still there. This storm will likely have problems...But overall the enviroment around this system is becoming more faverable shear wise. Lets see if this can finally break through the dry air.

[Ivan14]

It will be interesting to see if she can become a major hurricane. I am not holding my breath though. I am glad this will be a fish! It is so big! However there seems to be a lot of dry air near her.

[Zardoz]

Woof! Now we're seeing some convection!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

(Is Florence a weird-looking storm, or what?)

[marcane_1973]

Derek or somebody why does this system look like it does. It just does not look right. (not talking about from an orginization standpoint but more like it seems like some phatom thing is fighting Flo for the same area) Sure this sounds stupid but something just looks funny.

It is called Dry air and shear surrounds this system still. It was never really organized to begin with and when it was it was located in the Eastern Atlantic. Even the NHC is puzzled in why this system has not better organized and strengthened more. Florence most likely wont be a CAT 2 if the atmosphere does not change for the better soon. It just goes to show you models are useless sometimes especially in the future period. The shear and the dry air were supposed to be out of the way by now and Florence should be rapidly strengthening according to the GFDL model and becoming a major cane. As of now it looks as if Florence will be lucky to get to CAT 1 strength. Computers will never be able to get the intensity and the perfect track right. The man upstairs makes all the calls and the Atmosphere will do what it wants to do and not what some super model predicts.

[Thunder44]

First image after the eclispe is here at 6:45 UTC, shows that this storm looks good. There maybe some banding features, but hard to tell without more images:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

By the way, I don't think the system is entraining much dry air at all. If it was you wouldn't be seeing a blow-up of thunderstorms that we've seen all night long. Dry air surrounding tropical cyclones isn't that unusual at all.

[Derek Ortt]

the atmosphere will never do what it wants, it will do what the laws of physics dictate it will do

The models one day will get intensity right... when we get better data assimilation. To say otherwise is quite foolish, IMO