Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

This was also very interesting... I didn't get to read it yet since I got in after midnight tonight.


000
WTNT43 KNHC 170259
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...DESPITE A SHORT TERM
MOTION OF 290/09 BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE LATTER MOTION IS BELIEVED
TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE AS THE CENTER REORGANIZES WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON HELENE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MAKE A SLIGHT
WESTWARD BEND IN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODEL
TAKING HELENE NORTHWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE
BAMS...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HELENE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 5. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LOW THAT
HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN MOVING
EASTWARD SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...RATHER THAN DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA AS FORECAST BY THE OTHER MODELS. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW...
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER
MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS
ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

[sma10]

This was also very interesting... I didn't get to read it yet since I got in after midnight tonight.


000
WTNT43 KNHC 170259
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...DESPITE A SHORT TERM
MOTION OF 290/09 BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE LATTER MOTION IS BELIEVED
TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE AS THE CENTER REORGANIZES WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON HELENE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MAKE A SLIGHT
WESTWARD BEND IN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODEL
TAKING HELENE NORTHWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE
BAMS...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HELENE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 5. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LOW THAT
HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN MOVING
EASTWARD SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...RATHER THAN DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA AS FORECAST BY THE OTHER MODELS. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW...
THE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER
MODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS
ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

However, this does not seem to have materialized. The GFS is still way, way west of any other model.

[SouthFloridawx]

However, this does not seem to have materialized. The GFS is still way, way west of any other model.

The 00Z models did show something a little bit different. A couple out to sea quick, a couple stalling under a ridge and GFS with it's westward motion. Before except for the GFS it was recurving nicely with no stalling. Looking at water vapor the ULL that the other models have digging southeastward is moving eastward. It is very evident it is having and effect on the ridge to the west and northwest of Helene. Let's see what happens tonight. Once we get out of the eclipse if the low has eroded the ridge even more than before then a NW motion should persist more so within 48-72 hours as suggested by the models.

If it is still moving eastward and the ridge in front of the trough is evident to build in a track change would be in order tomorrow morning or 11am. Interesting that GFS is handling the ULL a little better.

[SouthFloridawx]

612
WHXX04 KWBC 170530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE HELENE 08L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.3 47.1 295./ 8.9
6 19.8 48.1 298./10.2
12 20.2 49.0 292./ 9.5
18 20.5 49.6 300./ 6.7
24 21.0 50.1 318./ 6.7
30 21.6 50.6 316./ 7.5
36 22.2 51.0 327./ 7.1
42 22.8 51.5 319./ 7.7
48 23.2 52.1 306./ 6.6
54 23.6 52.9 293./ 8.4
60 23.9 53.7 291./ 7.9
66 24.1 54.6 287./ 8.3
72 24.4 55.3 286./ 6.9
78 24.6 56.1 292./ 7.5
84 25.2 56.8 308./ 8.2
90 26.0 57.2 329./ 9.1
96 26.9 57.6 338./ 9.9
102 28.0 57.9 345./11.2
108 29.4 58.1 350./13.8
114 30.8 58.2 357./14.2
120 32.4 58.1 5./15.8
126 34.0 57.5 20./16.9

[terstorm1012]

06z models should start rolling in within the next few hours if anyone is going to stay awake for them

[Bgator]

06Z models wont be out till like 6AM EST globals at least, The BAMS will be out within the hour most liekly...

[fci]

Now the 0z UKMET just came in. It's shifted further west. Looks like tonight NOGAPS and yesterdays ECMWF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET builds the high in on top of Helene.

So where does she go if she hits the "high pressure brick wall" at the end of the loop?

[Bgator]

159
WHXX01 KWBC 170639
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060917 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 0600 060917 1800 060918 0600 060918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 47.9W 20.8N 49.4W 21.8N 50.8W 22.4N 52.1W
BAMM 19.8N 47.9W 20.8N 49.8W 21.6N 51.4W 22.1N 53.0W
A98E 19.8N 47.9W 20.6N 49.6W 21.5N 51.4W 22.3N 53.3W
LBAR 19.8N 47.9W 20.6N 49.3W 21.4N 50.9W 22.1N 52.4W
SHIP 75KTS 79KTS 82KTS 84KTS
DSHP 75KTS 79KTS 82KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 0600 060920 0600 060921 0600 060922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 53.6W 22.6N 56.7W 23.6N 59.3W 24.7N 61.7W
BAMM 22.1N 54.5W 21.7N 57.8W 21.9N 60.4W 22.4N 61.7W
A98E 22.5N 55.8W 24.0N 60.5W 25.1N 64.3W 22.0N 68.6W
LBAR 22.6N 54.3W 22.8N 58.7W 23.4N 62.1W 24.6N 64.3W
SHIP 85KTS 81KTS 73KTS 70KTS
DSHP 85KTS 81KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

[storm4u]

That doesnt look to good!!

159
WHXX01 KWBC 170639
CHGHUR




DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060917 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 0600 060917 1800 060918 0600 060918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 47.9W 20.8N 49.4W 21.8N 50.8W 22.4N 52.1W
BAMM 19.8N 47.9W 20.8N 49.8W 21.6N 51.4W 22.1N 53.0W
A98E 19.8N 47.9W 20.6N 49.6W 21.5N 51.4W 22.3N 53.3W
LBAR 19.8N 47.9W 20.6N 49.3W 21.4N 50.9W 22.1N 52.4W
SHIP 75KTS 79KTS 82KTS 84KTS
DSHP 75KTS 79KTS 82KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 0600 060920 0600 060921 0600 060922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 53.6W 22.6N 56.7W 23.6N 59.3W 24.7N 61.7W
BAMM 22.1N 54.5W 21.7N 57.8W 21.9N 60.4W 22.4N 61.7W
A98E 22.5N 55.8W 24.0N 60.5W 25.1N 64.3W 22.0N 68.6W
LBAR 22.6N 54.3W 22.8N 58.7W 23.4N 62.1W 24.6N 64.3W
SHIP 85KTS 81KTS 73KTS 70KTS
DSHP 85KTS 81KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Helene is that you?

[marcane_1973]

Helene is that you?

Yeah she sure is looking awful with all that dry air starting to get into her core.

[baitism]

Is that sarcasm? she still looks strong to me.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Helene is that you?

Yeah she sure is looking awful with all that dry air starting to get into her core.

Uh, dude, that is her eye tring to pop out.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is that sarcasm? she still looks strong to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
IMO, she is looking close to what an annular hurricane looks like. All she needs is a round eye.

[Meso]

The gfs no longer shows a US landfall as yet another trough comes and lifts it out to sea. Might be trouble for bermuda though
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204s.gif

[caneman]

Helene is that you?

Yeah she sure is looking awful with all that dry air starting to get into her core.

Are we watching the same system? She looks great with a very large eye now seen on IR

[cycloneye]

Helene looks good this morning with the red ring trying to wrap around.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE HELENE 08L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.8 47.9 295./ 8.9
6 20.1 48.8 290./ 9.8
12 20.5 49.6 295./ 8.4
18 20.8 50.1 305./ 5.5
24 21.4 50.6 321./ 7.1
30 22.1 51.2 316./ 8.9
36 22.6 51.8 315./ 7.8
42 23.0 52.5 297./ 7.7
48 23.3 53.4 287./ 8.9
54 23.6 54.3 287./ 8.2
60 23.8 55.1 283./ 8.0
66 24.0 55.9 286./ 7.4
72 24.2 56.8 284./ 8.0
78 24.8 57.4 311./ 8.3
84 25.6 58.0 325./10.2
90 26.5 58.5 332./ 9.4
96 27.5 59.0 333./11.7
102 28.8 59.3 347./12.4
108 30.2 59.4 357./14.3
114 31.7 58.9 18./15.4
120 33.5 58.3 19./18.5
126 35.6 57.3 26./22.7

6z GFDL,No change from previous runs with the recurve scenario.Although yesterday it was recurving at 55w,now it does it at 59w.

[HenkL]

The ECMWF 00Z run from today indicates Helene will reach the outermost western point on the track (near 60W) around Friday. See also http://www.ecmwf.int.