TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

[dwsqos2]

METAR FMNM 251300Z 20045G80KT 0300 RA FEW017 OVC090 25/25 Q0994

At 1300Z, Majunga was reporting southwest winds of 45 knots with a gust of 80 knots and a pressure of 994 hPa.

[P.K.]

That was the highest winds there yes, the pressure peaked at 990hPa in the report an hour later. For comparison here is the last 24 hours of reports.

FMNM 242100Z 16008KT 9999 FEW020 BKN100 27/23 Q1005=
FMNM 242200Z 16012KT 9999 FEW020 SCT040 BKN100 27/24 Q1004=
FMNM 242300Z 16014KT 9999 FEW020 SCT040 BKN100 26/24 Q1004=
FMNM 250000Z 18012KT 9999 FEW020 BKN100 28/23 Q1004=
FMNM 250100Z 18008KT 9999 FEW020 BKN100 27/23 Q1004=
FMNM 250200Z 20008KT 9999 FEW020 BKN100 26/23 Q1004=
FMNM 250300Z 18008KT 9000 -RA FEW020 OVC100 26/23 Q1005=
FMNM 250400Z 189008KT 9000 -RA FEW020 OVC100 25/22 Q1006=
FMNM 250600Z 18010KT 8000 -RA FEW017 OVC090 28/23 Q1006=
FMNM 250700Z 18010KT 8000 -RA FEW1700FT BKN090 25/24 Q1005=
FMNM 250800Z 08012KT 8000 -RA FEW017 OVC090 25/24 Q1004=
FMNM 250900Z 18014KT 8000 -RA FEW017 OVC090 25/24 Q1004=
FMNM 251000Z 18012KT 8000 -RA FEW017 OVC090 25/24 Q1003=
FMNM 251100Z 18016KT 9000 -RA FEW017 OVC100 25/25 Q1001 TEMPO 3000 RA=
FMNM 251100 + SPECI 18021G30KT 1000 RA FEW017 OVC090 25/25 Q1000=
FMNM 251200Z 18030G40KT 0800 RA FEW017 OVC090 25/25 Q0998=
FMNM 251300Z 20045G80KT 0300 RA FEW017 OVC090 25/25 Q0994
FMNM 251400Z 22030KT 3000 -RA SCT017 SCT040 OVC099 24M24 Q0990
FMNM 251500Z 30035KT 1500 RA FEW017 SCT040 OVC090 25/24 Q0995=
FMNM 251600Z 32026G36KT 2000 RA FEW017 SCT040 OVC090 25/24 Q0995=
FMNM 251700Z 30026KT 2000 RA FEW017 SCT040 BKN090 25/24 Q1003=
FMNM 251800Z 36019KT 6000 -RA SCT017 OVC090 25/25 Q1006=
FMNM 251900Z 36012KT 8000 -RA FEW020 OVC090 25/24 Q1007=

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 45.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS WEAKENED
RAPIDLY OVER LAND DUE TO THE TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER LAND AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH EGRR
DEPICTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE REMNANT LOW TRACKS
OVER THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SHOULD THIS OCCUR RE-
GENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

964
WTIO30 FMEE 260557

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/3/20062007
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 45.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.8S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.0S/44.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJUNGA THE 12/25
AT
1215UTC.
IT IS RAPIDLY DIZORGANIZING OVER LANDS, AS IT TRACKS WITH
ACCELERATION
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD.
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL STILL EXIST IN THE PERIPERY OF THE LOW.

IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CENTER TO GO BACK
OVER
SEA IN THE VIVINITY OF MORONDAVE, EVEN IF IT IS NOT THE ACTUAL
FORECAST.
IF IT OCCURS, THE SYSTEM COULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER SEA.=

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 261302 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 (EX-BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/26 AT 1200 UTC :
19.9S / 43.6E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 22.8S/43.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 25.3S/43.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE MINMUM OF THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF EX-BONDO HAS CAME BACK OVER SEA
NORTH OF MORONDAVE (IT IS A "NEW" LOW, GENERATED IN THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OF EX-BONDO; THE MAIN LOW WICH HAD MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY HAS
DISSIPATED DURING LAST NIGHT OVER LAND).
THE ASSOCIATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND NOT LOCATED
UNDER DEEP CONVECTION.
DESPITE ITS LOCATION OVER VERY WARM WATERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POOR DUE TO VERY POOR INFLOWS IN LOW
LEVEL.
NEVERTHELESS, IF THE SYSTEM GENERATES WEAK WINDS, IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED
TO HEAVY RAINFALLS, EVEN FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

[HurricaneBill]

Madagascar reporting 2 dead.