INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Canelaw99]

How much of a rainfall deficit do yall have?

Lake Okechobee is the main thing I'm concerned about. It hit its record low of 8.97 ft. above sea level yesterday, and is expected to go below that today, setting a new record. This time of year, the Lake should be at 13 ft. above sea level - quite a drastic difference.

[Janie2006]

All of that nice, juicy tropical moisture helped spark off some much needed showers for us yesterday. I'm hoping for a repeat performance today.

[MiamiensisWx]

Lake Okechobee is the main thing I'm concerned about. It hit its record low of 8.97 ft. above sea level yesterday, and is expected to go below that today, setting a new record. This time of year, the Lake should be at 13 ft. above sea level - quite a drastic difference.

The lake has reached a record low of 8.94 feet today.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

[Noah]

Man, is this going to hit Sarasota area or what???????? Im watching clouds form and move around us and NOOOOOO Rain..
Is it pulling up? Is it going to come north and east??????
Im losing patience!!!

[Canelaw99]

Hadn't heard that yet but all the news people yesterday were saying it would happen. I'm hoping for a ton of lake rain out of that 92L mess.

[B'hamBlazer]

I think we'll be in good shape either way. I'll be happy if we get it here in central Alabama since we're about 16-17 inches below normal rainfall (one of the worst droughts in Alabama's history). And of course all the wildfires in Florida. It'd be nice if it came in around Pensacola or even as far west as the big bend of Florida, but sorry... it really doesn't help the worst areas if it comes in and cuts across the FL peninsula.

[jdray]

That level is caused by humans as well.

They lowered the level last year in preparation for hurricane season, thinking that the banks might overflow.

[JonathanBelles]

Lake O is now dropping at a quarter inch a day! We have a deficit of 5.9"

[x-y-no]

Man, is this going to hit Sarasota area or what???????? Im watching clouds form and move around us and NOOOOOO Rain..
Is it pulling up? Is it going to come north and east??????
Im losing patience!!!

Not today ... late Friday or early Saturday, I'd say ...

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm thinking we could be looking at our first nail-biter of the season, close development but no dice.


As it has been stated all the convection is firing nicely on the eastern side, while the supposed Center is to the west. It usually takes a good amount of time for a system to wrap around that convection, and then to persist to become a depression and needless to say this is time that this system does not seem to have.


All that can be done is analyze the time until the system makes it into the Southern Gulf and then it's no dice. Too much wind shear there to allow any development.

[Hurricanevideo]

Lake Okeechobee is in need of some slow moving heavy tropical rains for sure. The lake reached historic levels this morning, and this Carib system whatever the outcome, will be very welcomed indeed.

http://stormvideographer.com/blog/2007/ ... -pictures/ - Lake Drought Photos

Jeff

[jdray]

Lake O is now dropping at a quarter inch a day! We have a deficit of 5.9"

We are anywhere from 7-12 inches below normal rainfall in North Florida.
South Georgia is even worse,
Parts of Alabama are even more worse.

[ncupsscweather]

That is about the only thing that is going to help these area's is a Tropical System. Although that's really to much rain in a short period of time.

[Opal storm]

LOL No offense guys but 92L is not looking at those rainfall-deficit maps planning where he's going to go.

[windstorm99]

You will need 2 dozen of these events before a real improvement is seen across the lake.

[Janie2006]

I have no reason to disagree with the forecast reasoning on this disturbance. The central Gulf is hostile to tropical development in the short term. That being said, there is the potential for good, beneficial rainfall for southern Florida and perhaps elsewhere in the next few days.

[windstorm99]

Not to hostile as windshear is forcasted to be at 10-20kts until saturday which may be enough time for a TD to form but either way the affects will be the same with very heavy rainfall over florida.

[Patrick99]

Experience tells me that these iffy tropical systems often do not produce anywhere near as much rain as anticipated. If it just cuts across Florida, and we return to ultra-dry air for two weeks on the "subsident side" of the low, then it will not have really helped the situation.

What we need is the good old-fashioned pattern of daily slow-moving thunderstorms....we never really seem to get this anymore throughout the balance of a rainy season. It's either heavy rain or dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

the shear continues to decrease..... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
the 15z analysis.. upper ridge is still moving over top of it.. if it developes now would be the time.....

[wjs3]

Not to hostile as windshear is forcasted to be at 10-20kts until saturday time frame which may be enough time for a TD to form but either way the affects will be the same with very heavy over florida.

I think that we're looking at a lopsided, marginal-to-classify tropical distuurbace, with convection displaced east of the center. My hope is that the shear will do a good job of displacing convection to the east of the low center and the low takes a track up or near the Fla west coast. This doesn't seem crazy at all given some of the model forecasts.

I'm buying what some discussions are saying about the GFS getting messed up by convective feedback and deepening the system too quickly.

WJS3