Still Watching Yucutan

[southerngreen]

if no one gets slammed and it turns out to be a 'quiet' year, sometime around Dec or Jan we can ALL laugh about itchy trigger fingers and premature forecasts.

[Aric Dunn]

if no one gets slammed and it turns out to be a 'quiet' year, sometime around Dec or Jan we can ALL laugh about itchy trigger fingers and premature forecasts.

nah no laughing just learning !!

[caneman]

You guys are really grasping at straws if you're using the Canadian model for tropical cyclone forecasts. I see a weak tropical wave along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula interacting with an upper-level low over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The result is spotty thunderstorms east of the Yucatan in the NW Caribbean. But the wave axis continues moving west across the Yucatan and the convection to the east in the NW Caribbean is diminishing. There is fairly high wind shear across the NW Caribbean and GoM. Development is unlikely over the next 3-5 days. Maybe in another week or more the shear might drop off and that'll be an area to just watch, as we'd normally do this time of year. All in all, the tropics are looking similar to 2004 now with all tropical waves south of 10N and very little convection associated. The first named storm didn't form until July 31 that year. Andrea was certainly not tropical and Barry was questionable. So I think there's a good chance that Chantal may hold off until late July. Let's enjoy the quiet early season.

While you are probably going to be right about the NW disturbance, I think you would have to agree that it would be hard to forecast no storm activity until the end of July. In just a week or two things can and will change.

[tailgater]

The disturbed area I was speaking of earlier has moved inland over the Yucatan penn.and is heading directly for the UUL never to heard from again. nice sat presentation on VIS sat. loop from Ghcc. Sorry I can't post the link from this location.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope you're right Southerngreen!

[ronjon]

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

AT THE
SURFACE...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TRY AND DEVELOP AN AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[windstorm99]

NHC 8:05PM Discussion...

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE REGION REMAINS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY W OF 80W N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INDUCED BY SEVERAL
FACTORS. THE MOST PERSISTENT HAS BEEN DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A BROAD
RIDGE/UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N81W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE
HONDURAS COAST TO THE W TIP OF CUBA ALONG 16N86W 20N86W TO
22N83W ARE SUPPLYING LOW-LEVEL LIFT AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM CUBA TO HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SE CARIB WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOISTENED FROM THE NEARBY
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT
BELOW GALE FORCE.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With Upper Level Low over the region, conditions appear to be
very unfavorable in the short term. I'd say we give it
2-3 weeks before the next system. Based on my observations,
conditions appear very unfavorable across much of the GOM
and Caribbean due to the Upper Level Lows, one after another
that continue to generate shear. Now I do think we see a pattern
change, with less Upper Level Lows, and when that happens things
may become active very quickly, but I do not expect such a change
for at least a week, as the Upper Level Lows and shear in place
continue to hold on to the region.

[ronjon]

Pressure pretty low and dropping at buoy 42057 in the western caribbean.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[Weatherfreak14]

Everything on the SAT shows somewhat hostile envirement for development, if everything slacks off for just a bit i can see this developing into a tropicial system, but nothing in the short range, unless something rapidly changes, which has been known to happen

[windstorm99]

[tailgater]

Pressure pretty low and dropping at buoy 42057 in the western caribbean.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Check this ob out. this the along the NE border between Houndras and Nicaragua
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNBL.html

[caneman]

As stated earlier. I believe this area needs watching. LEt se what happens in the next day or two but does look like some banding going on. It's taking the shape so to speak. Holding its own for now.

[Berwick Bay]

Question: Y'all don't think that this weather in the NW Carribean is going to be pulled around that ULL in lower Bay of Campeche. In another words sent across the Yucatan into the West Central Gulf just north of the NW tip of the Yucatan. I don't read models, some of you are saying this weather will pull north toward Fl?? I would think it would then have to go across the Bahamas because of the big air mass which has settled down over Fl (blocking anything from the NW Carribean). Seems like the best course for the weather in the NW Carrribean is toward the N Coast of the Yucatan and then out into the West Central Gulf (just NW of Yucatan).

[Cyclone1]

This blob is a long way from becoming a tropical cyclone. If it can, by some chance, get its act together soon before it makes landfall somewhere, gets sheered to death, flat out dissipates, or pulls off to the north, then things might become interesting. (Of course, you could say that about any cluster of storms over any warm ocean). Oh, well It's something to talk about, right?

What I'm trying to say is, I will eat my hat if this becomes a tropical cyclone.

[windstorm99]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[SouthFloridawx]

[TheRingo]

That's a lot of ridging. I'd be more concern about the 3 waves that are coming off africa.

[windstorm99]

Indeed...

[rjgator]

I want to see what happens when the wave around 55W (ex 93L) passes through the area. This wave has a large amplitde for this time of year and it will be interesting if the ULL moves out by the time it gets there.