Season Cancel? Switch Has Yet to Turn On

[Category 5]

Lets face it, theres a disturbing about of people I disagree with.

[Ptarmigan]

How would you want a repeat of 1914? (1 tropical storm, 0 hurricanes)

I have a hard time believing 1914 only had one 1 storm. More storms likely formed and were fish storms. 1914 would probably be more like 1977 or 1983.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW!!!!!!!!!

This season is NOT quiet.

Looks like I'll be Eating some BIG CROW
FOR THAT PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Man 2 cat 5s thats freakin insane record book
material!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

THAT Switch is ON BABY ON!!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this year with record ocean heat content
in the caribbean could be one of the WORST EVER.

No more quiet prediction from me.

[hurricanetrack]

As I said in another thread, we have a long way to go. This is a late blooming season but the end results could be quite unpleasant.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think we will match 2005 in terms of number of
category 5s. easily with all that heat content.

[brunota2003]

As I said in another thread, we have a long way to go. This is a late blooming season but the end results could be quite unpleasant.

Indeed, and numbers do not really matter. Where they hit and the strength is what does.

[Brent]

This thread is funny now.

[DanKellFla]

'Illegitimate Invest' is my favorite phrase from this thread. Much humor could be derived from that phrase. But I will refrain.

[Opal storm]

I'd really like to hear what gatorcane thinks about this dud season now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'd really like to hear what gatorcane thinks about this dud season now.

No offense to anybody but I think
Okay there's no reason to attack him or anyone else for it...because they are
just predictions and before felix so no attacking please thanks...
and that's not fair because I also predicted a quiet season and
that was before felix so it is not fair to say that now...I mean
i know my prediction was wrong but no need to attack.

and also it is really hard to predict multiple cat 5s so everyone
no offense to anybody we are just making predictions thats all.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the season is on for "intensity" but not on for "numbers". There are two trains of thought here. 1 is only looking at how strong the storms that do form get to dictate how busy of a season it is, and 2 is looking at how many storms/hurricanes develop(since the NHC seems driven by numbers themselves). I tend to look at numbers myself, since numbers are usually what people post around here when it comes to a season being busy. . Obviously the intensity in the storms that DO form is up, but I think the numbers will be down. I say this because there's not much shear and cold water out there right now, but invests seem to have a hard time getting going overall. Is it due to SAL? driy air? With all the convective activity we just recently saw in the Atlantic , I expected at least 2 to 3 potential storms getting going at once. That's happened many seasons(not just 2005)....
I guess I feel that we might be running out of time with these ideal conditions. If these multiple amount of invests aren't going to get going when the conditions are good, when will they get going?? With that said, it seems the ones that do develop mean business, so quality wise, yes, it's a busy season so far, but surely not quantiy wise.......We are entering into the middle of September here in a week, we'll see if we have an early into the season like last year and other multiple other years, or if it will somehow get going. Again, I"m coming at this from a "Quanity" perspective on the season. If the NHC didn't want us to focus on numbers, they wouldn't issue their forecasts predicting so.... Personally I think it will come to an end rather quickly, and i'm just basing that on more shear which will will make it even harder for these invests to get going than it already is.......
Excluding Dean and Felix...

[Stephanie]

Let's just put it this way - the season started out S L O W L Y.

We're a week away from the peak and have had 2 Cat 5's. We have something lurking off of the Southeast coast now and a new wave coming off of Africa that looks like it may have potential per the models.

I would be inclined to say that the numbers in total will be down from the forecast, but 2 Cat 5's make up for a couple less Cat 1's count wise, IMHO.

[george_r_1961]

I havent looked at how many storms we "should" have had by now but im guessing(and someone please correct me if im wrong) that we arent far "behind" at all.

As I said in another post: the CV season may be in a little lull but conditions in the western atlantic could spin something up before Africa starts churning out storms again. Lets not let our guard down just yet people. Its quite possible we may get a few nasty surprises out of the tropics and soon.