Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

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Gustywind
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#101 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:17 am

Folks its way to early to be calling this a fish lol....Lets wait a few days.
Yeah windstorm99 plenty of time fort that agree with you, and it seems very south for the moment with my untrained eyes!:double: so fish time seems utopic you're right! :cheesy:
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#102 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:17 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
This wave is getting close to coming off.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg
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Re: Well Organized Wave emerging Western Africa

#103 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:22 am

Another view: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
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#104 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:33 am

I'm gonna tell you right now that i think that the northern half of this wave will develop, because the lower half looks like its being sucked into the ITCZ.
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#105 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:34 am

Winds conditions looking good!:wink:
24 h winds:http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/TropicalWinds24.aspx
48h
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds48.aspx
72h
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx
Not much change in fact....very very interresting the window is on the verge to be enlarged :cheesy:
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#106 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:36 am

The wave Meso thinks will develop looks real close to the wave we're talking about. do you think that wave will get absorbed by the wave currently coming off the coast.
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#107 Postby Meso » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:41 am

That's what some of the models showed,they show the wave you're talking about moving off,and then after a few days the following wave merging and the developing,or so it looked on the GFS runs.
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#108 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:43 am

i don't tkink that if this happens it will be a monster wave i tkink :cheesy:
Note that moisture environnement is good, no dust down the road :bday:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/wv.jpg
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Re:

#109 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:45 am

Gustywind wrote:i don't tkink that if this happens it will be a monster wave i tkink :cheesy:
Note that moisture environnement is good, no dust down the road :bday:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/wv.jpg
Man its so moist out there?
i know the SAL is fine.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
Don't worry i found a shear map.

the shear is around 10-15kts.
Last edited by punkyg on Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#110 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:54 am

Shear seems very lowpunkyg!
Winds conditions looking good!:wink:
24 h winds:http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/TropicalWinds24.aspx
48h
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds48.aspx
72h
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... nds72.aspx
Not much change in fact....very very interresting the window is on the verge to be enlarged
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#111 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:00 am

Thankyou gusty, but i found a shear map. so gusty do think that they'll declare this an invest later today, tomorrow or on saturday?


gusty i added you to my friends list.
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#112 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:00 am

more shear tendency for you punkyg :cheesy:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Very low shear only a few pockets at 15kts, but most of at 5 kts avearing red/ orange colors.
I don't see hostile environnement to support something in the couple days!!! :spam:
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#113 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:03 am

ok tkanks punkyg. Humm if this trend continues Saturday night invest for me! And you punkyg? :roll:
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#114 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:09 am

I would have to say saturday too cause thats when i think it will make it to the 5kt shear and would start to get better organize, but of course if it don't start looking better on saturday i would bump monday.
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#115 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:10 am

The key will be too see how far into the Atlantic this system can get. If the convection poofs away at 30W then it probably won't do anything much but I've noticed that both the waves with Felix and Dean had popping further west then the other waves that have died away so far this season.
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#116 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:16 am

Punkyg wrote :I would have to say saturday too cause thats when i think it will make it to the 5kt shear and would start to get better organize, but of course if it don't start looking better on saturday i would bump monday.

yeah agree with you i tkink the same thing, but given the peak and the current conditions if this trend continues day afteer day saturday seems quite reasonable...why not after all?, time will tell but this feature doesn't seem deceiving my untrained eyes lool
:cheesy: :double: :lol:
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#117 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:18 am

Good post KWT agree with you that's tre trend i've noticed we will see what pan's out a little too early this afternoon we wiil have a better idea on this feature :cheesy: :P :eek: !
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#118 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:20 am

Before i truly go Kookoo over this wave i wanna see if its actually building convection or if it can sustain it for a couple of hours, but until it does either of those things i'll be a little iffy on this.

Oh man i shiny like the top of any of our 2ker's bald heads :ggreen:
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#119 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:34 am

We should have to wait and see crucial hours .... :cheesy:
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#120 Postby punkyg » Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:41 am

Image
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