Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[Stormcenter]

I know you guys are tired of hearing this but I can't help myself.
I will believe it when I see it. It is still October (fronts,shear,dry air,etc.)and I believe we
have that working in our favor against any "major" hurricanes affecting the U.S. IMO

[Ptarmigan]

This Bahamas system is definitely what the GFS and likely the ECMWF are focusing on as far as TC development late this weekend in the NW Caribbean. With the ridge building over the east coast, mean flow across the region would be NE-SW, which could well take the mess into the NW Caribbean under a building ridge. The 2007 season is far from over given the strength of La Nina and the summer-like pattern in place across the east. It's more like early September out there in the tropics. I can't say with any confidence what this system will do, or if the models are right about bringing it southwest into the Caribbean yet. But I can say that if it does move southwest then it could be a BIG problem for the Gulf next week. Tremendous heat content and low shear could = major hurricane if everything comes together just right. European says NW Gulf, GFS trending more west, too. Texas isn't out of the woods with this one IF (big IF) it develops anything like the GFS or EC are forecasting. Something to keep a close eye on, but I'm not actually forecasting a hurricane in the Gulf out of this yet.

I am sure Texas has been hit by tropical systems late into the season, like October and November, but probably went unrecorded and were treated as extratropical storms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, it is WRF, but only 0Z model before bedtime.


Weak system towards TX/LA coast, while a new low develops moving WSW through Bahamas.

[Derek Ortt]

an upper ridge is unfavorable? Maybe there is an undercutting layer of winds that I am missing

[Derek Ortt]

it does not matter at all that it is October

the environment supports significant development of this system. It is best to look at the dynamics and thermodynamis of a system to determine if it will develop, not climo

[Ed Mahmoud]

Jerry, a minimal Cat 1, hit GLS October 15, 1989. October 3, 1947, IIRC, a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 hit near Freeport.


It can happen, but either this stays way South, as suggested by Canadian, or if ridge does break down, it won't come Northwest for long, it will head North or Northeast.

In my humble and non-professional opinion, and I didn't stay at any hotel last night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

it does not matter at all that it is October

the environment supports significant development of this system. It is best to look at the dynamics and thermodynamis of a system to determine if it will develop, not climo

Mitch and Opal and Wilma come to mind for some reason.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM

Also, on board at H+84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

slightly OT- the WRF replaced the ETA as the operational NAM?


Edit to add- bed time, will see if answer posted in am.

[cycloneye]

Now lets wait for the 00z GFS run to see if it is similar to the 18z run that had a hurricane making landfall in the Florida Panhandle,but had a interesting track from the Bahamas,crossing Cuba,Western Caribbean,Yucatan Channel,SEGOM and then caught by front and moves towards Panhandle.

[Vortex]

This storm will probally have an excellent satellite representation based on the upper-air model data forecasted...

[cycloneye]

[bocadude86]

Wouldnt the further north this thing develops a LLC mean it would make a closer approach to mainland South Florida?

[Sanibel]

It's hot and humid here even at night from the southern flow draw up by 90L.

Surface feature should be more visible tomorrow. It should still be there. ' Nite.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 30 hours

Low Pressure starts from here.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 42 hours

[Derek Ortt]

it should not matter where this starts to form... the track would be the same (farther north may mean SW instead of WSW)

However, due to the large size, the Keys would likely get TS winds at a minimum

[Stormcenter]

Now lets wait for the 00z GFS run to see if it is similar to the 18z run that had a hurricane making landfall in the Florida Panhandle,but had a interesting track from the Bahamas,crossing Cuba,Western Caribbean,Yucatan Channel,SEGOM and then caught by front and moves towards Panhandle.

If this were to actually come to pass that would be the more likely of all of the scenarios in my opinion. There will be a strong cold front coming down next week so what ever is in the GOM will be swept N then NE.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 54 hours

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 72 Hours

Getting closer to north coast of Cuba.