Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

How about this trough, is that something or what? It's not November, its only end of September:

[Florida1118]

That's interesting alrighty..Look's like they are making a TS call..

They have made that call for nearly all Florida

[gatorcane]

So here we are at 180 hours. Otto doesn't want to leave South FL....it's been sitting and spinning for 3-4 days there:

[ROCK]

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

[ronjon]

I would think with the GFS showing possible tropical cyclone development in 54 hrs that the NHC would up their development chances to much more than 10%. I mean with all the model support that is being just too conservative, Heck, we could have a tropical storm knocking on the keys door in 3 days.

[caneman]

The impacts will not only be felt in Southern Florida but also in Central and Western Florida as well.

[gatorcane]

I would think with the GFS showing possible tropical cyclone development in 54 hrs that the NHC would up their development chances to much more than 10%. I mean with all the model support that is being just too conservative, Heck, we could have a tropical storm knocking on the keys door in 3 days.

Agreed I think its got to be a code orange by 8pmEST, 50% chance.

Here we are at 276 hours (yeah its long-range so take it with a grain of salt)..new low forms in the Western Caribbean, trough digging over the Great Lakes, Eastern CONUS:

[wzrgirl1]

Yeah maybe won't go to a high chance but maybe a medium chance. It might be more gradual.

[jinftl]

Just like the strong trough prevented Wilma from intensifying en route from the Yucatan to Florida?


From NHC report on Hurricane Wilma:

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida. As the upper-level flow over the hurricane increased, so too did the vertical shear, and by early on 24 October the environmental 850-200 mb shear (averaged over an annulus about 100 to 400 n mi from the center) was roughly 25 kt.

Despite the strong shear in its surroundings, Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October.

Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida. A vigorous cold front associated with the mid-tropospheric trough swept across the area to the west of Wilma, yet the cooler and drier air behind the front could not fully penetrate the inner core of the hurricane to weaken it.

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

[Cuber]

SFWMD watching carefully:

South Florida Water Management District
Tropical Conditions Report
12:59PM Sunday, September 26, 2010 (gws)
Current Conditions:
LOCAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS: None
Tropical Storm Force or Greater Winds Within 48 Hours: No
DISCUSSION:
Disorganized clouds and thunderstorms are centered over the northwestern Caribbean. Little movement is expected, but slow development is possible over the next couple of days. This disturbance in combination with a deepening non-tropical system over the southeast US could generate heavy rains initially south of the Lake beginning as early as Tuesday night.

NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE: 8am Monday

[Aquawind]

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

Yep... Shear hopefully will help keep things in check a bit... There is vorticity near what I assume is an eddy or the NHC would have more than 10% and someone would have confirmed the mention of it earlier..

[jinftl]

Keep in that the Tropical Weather Outlook speaks to the probability of development within 48 hours....aren't most of the models showing that things won't get going until after Tuesday evening? Hence the low % right now...

I would think with the GFS showing possible tropical cyclone development in 54 hrs that the NHC would up their development chances to much more than 10%. I mean with all the model support that is being just too conservative, Heck, we could have a tropical storm knocking on the keys door in 3 days.

[SFLcane]

18z NAM has come backed off the hurricane it had on its 12z run. It's now showing a elongated area of low pressure interacting with a cold front producing what might be some serious flooding in southeast florida. The canadian is the now the only model calling for a hurricane but iam sure it will come around. Again iam not really buying the GFS idea of multiple lows think there might be some convective issues there. All in all a good fetch of deep tropical moisture should beign to lift north come mid week.

[ROCK]

Just like the strong trough prevented Wilma from intensifying en route from the Yucatan to Florida?


From NHC report on Hurricane Wilma:

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida. As the upper-level flow over the hurricane increased, so too did the vertical shear, and by early on 24 October the environmental 850-200 mb shear (averaged over an annulus about 100 to 400 n mi from the center) was roughly 25 kt.

Despite the strong shear in its surroundings, Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October.

Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida. A vigorous cold front associated with the mid-tropospheric trough swept across the area to the west of Wilma, yet the cooler and drier air behind the front could not fully penetrate the inner core of the hurricane to weaken it.

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

who said anything about Wilma?....show me a global that makes this into a cat 3.... We do not even have an invest and you want to compare it to Wilma? nice...

[psyclone]

those model pics sort of validate a theory i've had that we've seen with past storms... a very abrupt, east/west precip gradient with the models favoring southern and east central florida for the bulk of the action. absent a shift west, imo the biggest threat resides over the miami and melbourne county warning areas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

Didn't mean to go off topic...just showing an example of a system in potentially the same area geographically that didn't weaken due to shear.....no analogue to wilma other than to show this point implied....relax!

p.s. wilma exited the yucatan as a cat 2

Just like the strong trough prevented Wilma from intensifying en route from the Yucatan to Florida?


From NHC report on Hurricane Wilma:

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida. As the upper-level flow over the hurricane increased, so too did the vertical shear, and by early on 24 October the environmental 850-200 mb shear (averaged over an annulus about 100 to 400 n mi from the center) was roughly 25 kt.

Despite the strong shear in its surroundings, Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October.

Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida. A vigorous cold front associated with the mid-tropospheric trough swept across the area to the west of Wilma, yet the cooler and drier air behind the front could not fully penetrate the inner core of the hurricane to weaken it.

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

who said anything about Wilma?....show me a global that makes this into a cat 3.... We do not even have an invest and you want to compare it to Wilma? nice...

[wzrgirl1]

Again, a severe wind and rain event that meanders could be far worse then a quick moving strong tropical system....we all know that. Either way, we must be vigilant and prepared. All systems have a mind of there own.

[Blown Away]

Interesting...Accuweather has the following forecast for Saturday and Saturday night in Key West:


Saturday (10/2)
Very windy; mostly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms
NNE at 34 mph
Gusts: 64 mph

Saturday Night (10/2)
Very windy; cloudy and humid with a couple of thunderstorms around
NNE at 45 mph
Gusts: 70 mph

I believe the low in the NW Caribbean is supposed to move across SFL mid week so that Saturday prediction must be from the second system, possibly Otto??

[Florida1118]

Just like the strong trough prevented Wilma from intensifying en route from the Yucatan to Florida?


From NHC report on Hurricane Wilma:

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida. As the upper-level flow over the hurricane increased, so too did the vertical shear, and by early on 24 October the environmental 850-200 mb shear (averaged over an annulus about 100 to 400 n mi from the center) was roughly 25 kt.

Despite the strong shear in its surroundings, Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October.

Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida. A vigorous cold front associated with the mid-tropospheric trough swept across the area to the west of Wilma, yet the cooler and drier air behind the front could not fully penetrate the inner core of the hurricane to weaken it.

looks like breezy and plenty of rain for FL....thank goodness for that trof to shear it enough so it doesnt bomb....

BTW- there is a low level circulation at 85W 19.8N...moving NW...might be just an eddy but it looks like its at the surface.

who said anything about Wilma?....show me a global that makes this into a cat 3.... We do not even have an invest and you want to compare it to Wilma? nice...

I dont think that was the point at all...Perhaps saying a storm near what future Nicole will be still was strong, even though strong shear was acting on it? Look at Karl, Julia, and Lisa....THIS YEAR ALONE the models have failed to see the strong intensity that they became... Im going to wait until the models have a better fix on it...

[gatorcane]

The argument against Wilma would be that Wilma was already a very developed low-end hurricane when it left the Yucatan and made a beeline into Southern FL........

In this case, it's not organized. That said, we can't rule out the possibility the models are not handling the shear correctly or the possibility that the system organizes more quickly in the Caribbean (perhaps because the models usually try to eject systems out of the Caribbean too quickly). In Wilma's case they showed a sheared and elongated system as well but look what happened. The shear actually helped the system.