2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Hammy]

Euro run has finished. Seems to develop the wave briefly, which is the closest the model has indicated anything forming since June. Another interesting feature I've been keeping an eye on to see if it was worth mentioning, which is still there, is a sharp wave near the Bahamas at days 9-10--the CFS for months has indicated a tropical storm off the east coast approaching from alternating directions of either eastern Cuba or the Bahamas, and this lines up with that timing-wise.

[weathaguyry]

6z shows a weaker low, but may I add that the GFS has been showing a low pressure system in the same area ever since 12z on July 15th, with the time frame moving closer and closer with each run, so I would find it hard to believe that this is a typical GFS phantom storm, because it would have dropped development often, and the time frame would have probably been stuck at a certain hour for multiple runs, IMO

[JaxGator]

Imo, a gradual developer would put any land areas in the Atlantic more at risk if this wave did develop. It would find warmer water and potential favorable wind shear in the West Atlantic or anywhere in the basin it could venture into that has those factors. Is the GFS still showing that system closer to home that Alyono pointed out earlier?

[tolakram]

Latest GFS run is much much weaker, we'll have to see if it's a trend or not. Euro run will be interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

Like in most cases the Euro seems to be the leader.

Wonder if and when this hurricane season will get going like some are saying?

[tolakram]

Like in most cases the Euro seems to be the leader.

Wonder if and when this hurricane season will get going like some are saying?

Euro was trending stronger, so what does that mean? That's why I want to see this run.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GEFS Ensembles have trended weaker and less bullish.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/756191570056052737

[Siker]

Stronger through 180 hours (999mb vs. 1009 on the 12z) and further south on the 18z GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

Stronger through 180 hours (999mb vs. 1009 on the 12z) and further south on the 18z GFS.

I'm thinking its that T-Storm area in Chad that the models are starting to latch on to and the GFS has been on for about a week to various degrees

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[JaxGator]

Now down to 993mb.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_39.png

[JaxGator]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_40.png
Just for fun but possible. It gradually intensifies. 100th post, sweet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It runs into shear and dry air. Looks like 18z run is going to kill it before the islands.

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072118/gfs_ir_atltropics_40.png
Just for fun but possible. It gradually intensifies. 100th post, sweet.

weakens some at 276hrs due to dry air but this may be something to watch in a few weeks but due to so much uncertainty and the GFS past performance its wait and see

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[RL3AO]

FWIW there has been a trend to weaken the gap between the two ridges in the central Atlantic. Seems a weak TS would keep going westward.

[tarheelprogrammer]

FWIW there has been a trend to weaken the gap between the two ridges in the central Atlantic. Seems a weak TS would keep going westward.

My only fear is this stays a TS and reaches the western Atlantic. Let us hope that doesn't happen and dry air and shear get to it in a hurry.

[tarheelprogrammer]

At hour 90 is when this wave appears to come off the coast of Africa.



Edit: Lots of vorticity and the wave train setting up nicely in the Cape Verde area.

[USTropics]

The 12z CFSv2 run does indicate lowering pressure and increasing precipitation in this area:


This is the 7 day accumulated precipitation for the next 7 days (conditions currently):


This is the projected accumulated precipitation when our wave passes by:


This is way out in lala land, but at the end of the run 18z GFS run, the wave axis (i've marked it in red) can be tracked into the Bahamas (looks to have opened back up into a wave):


Dry air entrainment looks to be a major inhibiting factor:

[ninel conde]

[TheStormExpert]

Just like a few runs ago when it was showing it, it detaches from the ITCZ and loses it's moisture source.

[Hammy]

Latest GFS run seems more realistic--if there's a strong wave that comes off (which seems to be what the models are in diagreement over) something is likely to develop, but will encounter harsh conditions down the road not uncommon this time of year.

And not to beat a dead horse (you're all probably tired of hearing 1998 repeatedly ) but as per the latest GFS run, the track/timing is almost identical to Alex in 1998.