Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF forecast genesis track:

[Steve]

NASA model day 5

It has a way deeper trough in the central US. Beyond that time frame it is going to be transient as the high behind it builds in and becomes the biggest and most important variable on the map in my opinion (the second high). Gonna be a crazy week watching it all evolve

[USTropics]

18z NCEP ensemble plots:

[SeGaBob]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

18z NCEP ensemble plots:

That's not a huge spread for 10 days out. Models seem to already be on something?

Could Hazel 1954 be an analog, even though this would be a week earlier? Another possible analog may be King 1950.

[LarryWx]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

Lots of recurves east of the US on the 18Z GEFS. The 18Z GFS is to the west of most members.

[Steve]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

How much and on what terms?

[USTropics]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

How much and on what terms?

I feel a wager is about to come out

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[SeGaBob]

50 fake dollars. But I do plan to donate when money situation improves.

[USTropics]

Also probability of TC genesis from ensembles has increased to 40% within 48 hours:

[1900hurricane]

The spread in the EPS extends considerably further west than the GEFS. In fact, the strongest signal at hour 240 is just about in the center of the western Caribbean.





All things considered, the spreads for all the ensembles aren't all that large for the 168-240 taus.

[jasons2k]

Thank you for your support!

Yes, it's gonna be an interesting week ahead for sure. We all need to keep a close watch on this one.

[Alyono]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

I'll give you 100 to 1 odds on this going east of Bermuda. It's that unlikely

[psyclone]

You can't leave out Mexico or Texas I mean gfs has been everywhere...right now I say let's see if it develops and if it does let's hope their is a strong front or trough of not all the way to Mexico-Florida better watch out

Hurricane strikes on Texas after Sept are exceedingly rare. I have no idea where this is going if it develops but Texas would be last on my list. Even Louisiana has a much higher historical hit rate than TX in early Oct. We're getting to the time of the year where the likely hit zones start to contract a good bit. There can always be rule breakers but the history is compelling. I wouldn't be shocked if the system finds a way to avoid the gulf completely...Look how many GFS ensemble members are east of FL. An interesting 10 days coming up for sure.

[centuryv58]

:uarrow: 50 fake dollars. But I do plan to donate when money situation improves.

Sorry, whatever happens will not be east of Bermuda.

[USTropics]

Also as a side note, I believe 1000+ posts, 51 pages, almost 20k views is a new record for an area not yet designated an invest (although it most certainly will be). That's more then all of the combined pages for Karl and Lisa (discussions, models, advisories, etc.). Storm2k community all over this!

[SFLcane]

King 1950 would certainly be an analog based on those ncep ensembles

[SeGaBob]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

I'll give you 100 to 1 odds on this going east of Bermuda. It's that unlikely

So there's a chance?

[centuryv58]

King 1950 would certainly be an analog based on those ncep ensembles

King would be a bad one as my parents went through that one and had nothing good to say about it.

[USTropics]

I'm going to predict that the NHC will increase 2 day odds to 20% at 2am after seeing the early 00z models, then start an official invest.