2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS did not show the Euro system; however, there were some hints in the ensembles.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shows nothing till long range, though more hints at stuff next week.

On a trivia note, we now have 10 hurricanes. We need 2 more and we'll have the most since 1992. 2 more majors would give us to most since 1993. Roughly 40 units in ACE gives us the most since 1994. And 6 more system would give us the most since 1992, 5 would tie us with 2013, 1994, and 2009 as the most since 1992.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The EPAC garnered 85.29 ACE units in August alone. This is approximately 9 units higher than the total yearly ACE of last year. So far, we have six major hurricanes and is 2012 & 2013 combined. It is still early September and look how much activity has occured this year in the EPAC. We're close to 1992, but we are behind in terms of ACE and we need 2 more long-lived major hurricanes to surpass that season to date. This is the most active season since 2006 and most major hurricanes since 1997, which ties with the moderately active 2011 season.

[Yellow Evan]

0z and 6z GFS show stuff in a little over 5 days.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF goes nuts, showing Odile,Polo,and Rachel active at the same time

[Yellow Evan]

UKMET been showing some stuff near CA in 5 days.

But it's the UKMET.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves slowly to the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

What an unbelievable season. I'd say there is a remote chance the EPAC finishes with a higher ACE than WPAC if it doesn't catch up.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows a long lived TS that heads N, stalls, then re-curves to the mainland.

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located offshore of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions appear
favorable for some gradual development of this system early next
week while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS less aggressive than the 12z.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF shows another possible hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend
or early next week. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development of this system next week while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next
week. Environmental conditions in this region should be conducive
for gradual development through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF shows another possible hurricane.

A low-rider.

We have a couple of weeks to go before it becomes tougher to get basin crossers.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Yellow Evan]

Problem is that there is a lot of dry air to its WSW. And that storm is likely moving NW. In a lot of shear, so it will likely be weak.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060551
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located a short distance offshore of the Baja California
Sur.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental
conditions in this region should be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Ntxw]

EPAC gets its 7th major as Norbert joins the list, poppin like popcorn they are.

[NDG]

EPAC gets its 7th major as Norbert joins the list, poppin like popcorn they are.

What's the record for the most majors in the EPAC?

[Extratropical94]

EPAC gets its 7th major as Norbert joins the list, poppin like popcorn they are.

What's the record for the most majors in the EPAC?

IIRC, it's 1992 with a total of 10 majors (both EPAC and CPAC areas combined).