Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[JaxGator]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

This will make at least 5 years since we have had an active season. Wonder what the numbers say about that? Has that happened before?

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

[ninel conde]

On a side note, did anyone receive LC's newsletter last night? I enjoy reading his long range discussion.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

This will make at least 5 years since we have had an active season. Wonder what the numbers say about that? Has that happened before?

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

If this season is inactive it would make 5 years (if you include the build up to next season 2017) since 2012. If we see no major hurricane strike we will be approaching 12 years since the last one. If we see no hurricane strike it will be 3 years since the last one next season. Very odd slow down in the Atlantic. That is why it is hard to believe people when they say this season will have more activity. I remember as a child in the 90s seeing hurricanes form consistently in the Atlantic (some hit and some did not). Even in down years we still had our share of threats. It is a good thing but still very odd. Hasn't been seen in our recorded history. I thought with global warming becoming a problem we would see an increase in activity due to more heat content but it has seemed to have a negative effect on formation at least in the Atlantic.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the SLP forecast for Aug/Sept? I believe this comes out at the beginning of each month and the July uodate should have come out like last week maybe.

Also can somebody post instability and shear maps for current conditions and also comparing to last year?

[Yellow Evan]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

Unlikely but not impossible. Still, give this season 2-3 more weeks. If there are no strong signals of a flip by then, then a 2013 redux is real possibility.

[blp]

Looking at the CFS long range it continues to advertise development approaching the Lesser Antillies from the MDR in the first week of August timeframe. I normally use the CFS long range to see steering patterns but this keeps sticking out. If correct we should start seeing something on GFS this week.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=all&VAR=pslv&HH=480&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Yellow Evan]

Is it possible Global Warming has something to do with why the U.S. and Florida have been so fortunate for so long?

Absolutely possible. Aside from the possible increase (or not) in East Coast troughing, it appears the TC genesis region in the Atlantic even from AEW's has moved northward. This makes sense since the tropics are expanding, but the confusing part is wouldn't the jet stream also move north if that was the case?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble members are suggesting a very potent and robust Tropical Wave exiting the West Coast of Africa in about 10 to 14 days. Multiple ensemble members also suggest the wave will begin to organize with TC Genesis possible near 50W.

[JaxGator]

This will make at least 5 years since we have had an active season. Wonder what the numbers say about that? Has that happened before?

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

If this season is inactive it would make 5 years (if you include the build up to next season 2017) since 2012. If we see no major hurricane strike we will be approaching 12 years since the last one. If we see no hurricane strike it will be 3 years since the last one next season. Very odd slow down in the Atlantic. That is why it is hard to believe people when they say this season will have more activity. I remember as a child in the 90s seeing hurricanes form consistently in the Atlantic (some hit and some did not). Even in down years we still had our share of threats. It is a good thing but still very odd. Hasn't been seen in our recorded history. I thought with global warming becoming a problem we would see an increase in activity due to more heat content but it has seemed to have a negative effect on formation at least in the Atlantic.

I've gown up in the 1990s and 2000s and seen a lot of active seasons which I'd admit that I've grown used to them. Looking back at history, there was a period of a more inactive phase from the 1970s-94 but still had many bad hurricanes and the 30s-60s had many bad landfalls. I don't think this period of less storms will last when there are so many hurricane seasons beyond our lifetimes that outnumber the last few years. It'll be nice to see out to sea hurricanes but still, it's still July. We got time.

[Hammy]

I'm actually starting to agree with ninel. Things seem to keep getting pushed back in the models!

Will the switch ever get flipped? Could we be in for another 2013 season?

In 2013 things kept getting pushed further and further back in time. The same seems to be happening this year as well in my opinion.

The only ones pushing things back are those who put all hopes of an active season on an active July. I've been saying mid-August from the start. 1998 is my analog and in 1998 (1998-2002 in fact) seasons were -far- worse in the Atlantic during July and all but 2000, much of August. And 2004 was the driest July since 1987 (which is as far back as WV imagery is available.)

[Yellow Evan]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble members are suggesting a very potent and robust Tropical Wave exiting the West Coast of Africa in about 10 to 14 days. Multiple ensemble members also suggest the wave will begin to organize with TC Genesis possible near 50W.

Just one ensemble member it appears actually shows something.

[tarheelprogrammer]

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

If this season is inactive it would make 5 years (if you include the build up to next season 2017) since 2012. If we see no major hurricane strike we will be approaching 12 years since the last one. If we see no hurricane strike it will be 3 years since the last one next season. Very odd slow down in the Atlantic. That is why it is hard to believe people when they say this season will have more activity. I remember as a child in the 90s seeing hurricanes form consistently in the Atlantic (some hit and some did not). Even in down years we still had our share of threats. It is a good thing but still very odd. Hasn't been seen in our recorded history. I thought with global warming becoming a problem we would see an increase in activity due to more heat content but it has seemed to have a negative effect on formation at least in the Atlantic.

I've gown up in the 1990s and 2000s and seen a lot of active seasons which I'd admit that I've grown used to them. Looking back at history, there was a period of a more inactive phase from the 1970s-94 but still had many bad hurricanes and the 30s-60s had many bad landfalls. I don't think this period of less storms will last when there are so many hurricane seasons beyond our lifetimes that outnumber the last few years. It'll be nice to see out to sea hurricanes but still, it's still July. We got time.

True but the pattern better change faster than the models are showing. Things seem to be taking their time. I of course would rather have a slow season but to me it is odd the recent lull in activity. We all shall see in the end what happens of course this season but we will not see all the hurricane seasons the earth has got to show.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble members are suggesting a very potent and robust Tropical Wave exiting the West Coast of Africa in about 10 to 14 days. Multiple ensemble members also suggest the wave will begin to organize with TC Genesis possible near 50W.

Just one ensemble member it appears actually shows something.

Out of how many?

[JaxGator]

I hope I don't take any heat for this but in my opinion, global warming as portrayed has nothing to do with the last 4-5 years. I don't know what caused what for 2013 but it maybe be something we have yet to encounter since before records were kept or knowing much how the tropics work as a whole. 2014-15 was more El-Nino related.

[JaxGator]

If this season is inactive it would make 5 years (if you include the build up to next season 2017) since 2012. If we see no major hurricane strike we will be approaching 12 years since the last one. If we see no hurricane strike it will be 3 years since the last one next season. Very odd slow down in the Atlantic. That is why it is hard to believe people when they say this season will have more activity. I remember as a child in the 90s seeing hurricanes form consistently in the Atlantic (some hit and some did not). Even in down years we still had our share of threats. It is a good thing but still very odd. Hasn't been seen in our recorded history. I thought with global warming becoming a problem we would see an increase in activity due to more heat content but it has seemed to have a negative effect on formation at least in the Atlantic.

I've gown up in the 1990s and 2000s and seen a lot of active seasons which I'd admit that I've grown used to them. Looking back at history, there was a period of a more inactive phase from the 1970s-94 but still had many bad hurricanes and the 30s-60s had many bad landfalls. I don't think this period of less storms will last when there are so many hurricane seasons beyond our lifetimes that outnumber the last few years. It'll be nice to see out to sea hurricanes but still, it's still July. We got time.

True but the pattern better change faster than the models are showing. Things seem to be taking their time. I of course would rather have a slow season but to me it is odd the recent lull in activity. We all shall see in the end what happens of course this season but we will not see all the hurricane seasons the earth has got to show.

Yes, weather and nature sometimes like to take their sweet time lol.

[srainhoutx]

There are 21individual ensemble members with the GEFS, tarheelprogrammer. 5 to 6 are 'sniffing' the vigorous wave near the Cape Verde Islands.

[JaxGator]

Though it's a model run, it looks impressive.

[Hammy]

This will make at least 5 years since we have had an active season. Wonder what the numbers say about that? Has that happened before?

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

I personally thing too much weight is given to the timeframe between major hurricane strikes, given that it's a man-made scale. We had two 110mph landfalls in 2008, major is 111.

And it's a bit early to be speculating on counting 2017 as part of a 'quiet period' given we haven't even seen how 2016 will turn out yet--and of the three (possibly four) quiet years, two were El Nino (both of which were increasingly active since 2013 despite that) and it's been noted by several pro-mets that it's not impossible 1983 could be an analog for this year, due to lingering Nino effects in the tropical Epac--the warming in that region could end up spanning three Atlantic seasons. As far as whether we're entering an active period, I've been saying since 2014, wait until the second post-Nino season (with this being the first.)

[JaxGator]

2012 was active and that was 4 years ago. If there were, it could of happened before records were kept. The early 1910s seemed inactive but had dangerous hurricanes.

I personally thing too much weight is given to the timeframe between major hurricane strikes, given that it's a man-made scale. We had two 110mph landfalls in 2008, major is 111.

And it's a bit early to be speculating on counting 2017 as part of a 'quiet period' given we haven't even seen how 2016 will turn out yet--and of the three (possibly four) quiet years, two were El Nino (both of which were increasingly active since 2013 despite that) and it's been noted by several pro-mets that it's not impossible 1983 could be an analog for this year, due to lingering Nino effects in the tropical Epac--the warming in that region could end up spanning three Atlantic seasons. As far as whether we're entering an active period, I've been saying since 2014, wait until the second post-Nino season (with this being the first.)

I agree. I'm not giving up on the season yet and in wait and see mode.

[cycloneye]

Those who may be proclaiming the 2016 will be a dud be patient as the meat of the season is still coming.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/753589977443807232