Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[HurricaneEric]

King 1950 would certainly be an analog based on those ncep ensembles

I really hope not. I legitimately had a dream the night before hurricane season started that we (Miami) were hit by a major cane from the South. Could also just be me checking in on S2K too much

[LarryWx]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

I'll give you 100 to 1 odds on this going east of Bermuda. It's that unlikely

I'd take those odds as I think there's at least a 2% chance it goes east of Bermuda.

[Steve]

Lol Bob. I would have taken grandmaster Alyono's bet for 25. Hell, twenty-five hundred for me would have been worth a 25.00 investment. But he's right. East of Bermuda might happen after western basin impacts on the way out to Scandinavia or something. Haha. But yeah. I'm with you. I gotta get another 50.00 into Storm2k in the next few weeks myself. It's not going East of Bermuda. It's most likely not recurving. It's probably not even coming in "north" up the Florida Peninsula. It may hit FL, but probably not south to north.

[stormreader]

Lol Bob. I would have taken grandmaster Alyono's bet for 25. Hell, twenty-five hundred for me would have been worth a 25.00 investment. But he's right. East of Betmuda might happen after western basin impacts on the way out to Scandinavia or something. Haha. But yeah. I'm with you. I gotta get another 50.00 into Storm2k in the next few weeks myself. It's not going East of Bermuda. It's most likely not recurving. It's probably not even coming in "north" up the Florida Peninsula. It may hit FL, but probably not south to north.

Steve, you seem to see a more westerly component to this in the vicinity of the GOM based on your last statement. Can you explain (without getting too deep into the weeds?)

[stormlover2013]

I Know the odds aren't that good but there have been storms hit Texas in October

[stormreader]

Not the best view, but if you blow it up it looks like t-storm activity is beginning to the east where a possible center of circulation is likely to form.

[USTropics]

Hurricane landfalls in October since 1950:

[stormreader]

Hurricane landfalls in October since 1950:

That map is one reason I posted earlier about the La Coast being a significant possibility in early October. I also included a couple of powerful hurricanes from further back that came up through the Yucatan Channel at about this time of year. Sept 29-Oct 4.

[SeGaBob]

It's all in good fun.
(unless it hits somebody) It'll take a few more model runs to change my mind.

[dexterlabio]

Hermine got my attention when the Euro was showing a Cat 4 in the gulf. Now both the Euro and GFS are showing a howler in the gulf, definitely something to watch out for...

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 I see you! what are your most recent thoughts?

[wxman57]

Still betting on a recurve. Maybe even east of Bermuda.

I'll give you 100 to 1 odds on this going east of Bermuda. It's that unlikely

I'd take those odds as I think there's at least a 2% chance it goes east of Bermuda.

I wouldn't rule out a track east of Bermuda - after it moves to the W. Caribbean and possibly impacts Florida or the Bahamas.

[bamajammer4eva]

I don't see Opal in the graphic above but thought it was an October storm that supposedly hit this area (SE AL)

[wxman57]

Wxman57 I see you! what are your most recent thoughts?

Just got home from the movies. My thinking is that I'm pretty confident it will move into the Caribbean on Wednesday. I'm still a bit doubtful it can develop east of the Caribbean. The MDR has been so hostile all year, so I don't trust the models that indicate development too far east. If it does get to the south-central Caribbean then conditions are likely going to be favorable for development/strengthening. For now, I'm thinking a track somewhere between Nicaragua and east of Bermuda. I hope to narrow that down in 4-6 days.

[USTropics]

I don't see Opal in the graphic above but thought it was an October storm that supposedly hit this area (SE AL)

It's on there, track starts just south of Yucatan:

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 I see you! what are your most recent thoughts?

Just got home from the movies. My thinking is that I'm pretty confident it will move into the Caribbean on Wednesday. I'm still a bit doubtful it can develop east of the Caribbean. The MDR has been so hostile all year, so I don't trust the models that indicate development too far east. If it does get to the south-central Caribbean then conditions are likely going to be favorable for development/strengthening. For now, I'm thinking a track somewhere between Nicaragua and east of Bermuda. I hope to narrow that down in 4-6 days.

Thx! 57 watching closely here from South Florida been burned this season but having the euro and GFS fully onboard is always a plus so we shall see. GFS Ensembles are mostly east of op.

[slamdaddy]

Wxman57 I see you! what are your most recent thoughts?

Just got home from the movies. My thinking is that I'm pretty confident it will move into the Caribbean on Wednesday. I'm still a bit doubtful it can develop east of the Caribbean. The MDR has been so hostile all year, so I don't trust the models that indicate development too far east. If it does get to the south-central Caribbean then conditions are likely going to be favorable for development/strengthening. For now, I'm thinking a track somewhere between Nicaragua and east of Bermuda. I hope to narrow that down in 4-6 days.

Gottcha pro guy !!!!

[USTropics]

00z GFS running, can clearly see the two areas of vorticity at 30 hours (P43L and P39L):

[slamdaddy]

Bay of Campeche looks good too at this point

[USTropics]

48 hours, P43L starting to take over: