Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat from 2005 where she was a wave in the Bahamas and we ended up getting hit by a cat1 storm? Not of course thinking of a hurricane but even a named ts

Why stop at Katrina? This is forming in the same area as the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane!

And it's labor day weekend!

[tgenius]

Like I said. I’m farthest from wishcasting here. Just similar location wise to Katrina was when she formed. I remember waking up from a nap that day and finding out she had taken that SW dip.

[Evil Jeremy]

Like I said. I’m farthest from wishcasting here. Just similar location wise to Katrina was when she formed. I remember waking up from a nap that day and finding out she had taken that SW dip.

I am also far from wishcasting, but remain concerned that the NHC is underestimating this wave in the near-term.

[jasons2k]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat

No.

Never say "Yes" or "No." While as of right now, chances for any type of Major Hurricane, or even a hurricane at all, appear to be very low, intensity is one of the most challenging things to forecast for a tropical cyclone.

I remember Katrina well. She had been TD#10 that fell apart and was completely written off, only to quickly intensify when reaching the Bahamas. If you recall, there was considerable debate on this very forum if Katrina would even become a hurricane. One member basically predicted the Apocalypse, and he got permanently banned for it. In hindsight, the prediction wasn't that crazy after all, even if for him, it was pure luck. I digress...

Nobody (respectable) predicted Katrina to move WSW and then hold together as well as she did as she traversed Florida. The GFDL model, a new model at the time, did predict it, but nobody believed it. We all watched in awe and disbelief as Katrina held together across the peninsula and then exploded in the Gulf.

Just remember, mere days before landfall, nobody could have predicted a humongous Cat. 5 aimed right at New Orleans. And a just month later, nobody could fathom that Rita would break the all-time low pressure reading in the Gulf of Mexico that had just been set by Katrina.

Just last year, up until the day Harvey made landfall, nobody could grasp a deepening Cat. 4 making landfall on the Texas coast. Humberto was another surprise. The list goes on and on...

I just caution folks to never use absolutes when predicting the behavior of tropical cyclones. They never cease to amaze us, even with all our wonderful technology and constant data feeds, mother nature is an enigma still full of secrets.

[blp]

Earth Wind has a closed circulation over Great Inagua

It's not at the surface yet. It is aligned at the 700 & 500 level. It's getting close though.


700

[SoupBone]

Is there any possibility we have a Katrina repeat

No.

Never say "Yes" or "No." While as of right now, chances for any type of Major Hurricane, or even a hurricane at all, appear to be very low, intensity is one of the most challenging things to forecast for a tropical cyclone.

I remember Katrina well. She had been TD#10 that fell apart and was completely written off, only to quickly intensify when reaching the Bahamas. If you recall, there was considerable debate on this very forum if Katrina would even become a hurricane. One member basically predicted the Apocalypse, and he got permanently banned for it. In hindsight, the prediction wasn't that crazy after all, even if for him, it was pure luck. I digress...

Nobody (respectable) predicted Katrina to move WSW and then hold together as well as she did as she traversed Florida. The GFDL model, a new model at the time, did predict it, but nobody believed it. We all watched in awe and disbelief as Katrina held together across the peninsula and then exploded in the Gulf.

Just remember, mere days before landfall, nobody could have predicted a humongous Cat. 5 aimed right at New Orleans. And a just month later, nobody could fathom that Rita would break the all-time low pressure reading in the Gulf of Mexico that had just been set by Katrina.

Just last year, up until the day Harvey made landfall, nobody could grasp a deepening Cat. 4 making landfall on the Texas coast. Humberto was another surprise. The list goes on and on...

I just caution folks to never use absolutes when predicting the behavior of tropical cyclones. They never cease to amaze us, even with all our wonderful technology and constant data feeds, mother nature is an enigma still full of secrets.

Preach it.

[toad strangler]

2004 and 2005 are far flung off the chart years. It’s very probable that nobody on this forum sees that again.

[AxaltaRacing24]

2004 and 2005 are far flung off the chart years. It’s very probable that nobody on this forum sees that again.

2017 wasn't that boring either?

[Clearcloudz]

Popping me some popcorn for these 00Z model runs.

[toad strangler]

2004 and 2005 are far flung off the chart years. It’s very probable that nobody on this forum sees that again.

2017 wasn't that boring either?

‘04 & ‘05 are epic CONUS years that even ‘17 sits in back of the bus.

[stormlover2013]

2017 had the worse flood in history!!!!! Something we never seen before

[cycloneye]

Ok folks.Since the invest has not been tagged,we stick here until that happens but do it discussing about the disturbance in the Bahamas and not stray to off topic things.I didn't want to do it but as a moderator I have a responsability to mantain things running well and not turn into other things so I took out some posts.Thanks for your cooperation.

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

[eastcoastFL]

Any idea what kind of weather south Florida will see and when it will begin? I know its a pretty broad area so I don't know if it will be a Sunday and Monday rain event? Hoping its just like an afternoon thunderstorm.

[eastcoastFL]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

[Clearcloudz]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

I don't think Nam has been bullish on showing development on this system.

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

It was more bullish on the last 2 runs than the current one. But yeah, still not much.

[SoupBone]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

It's looks the healthiest it's looked so far at the moment though. Yeah, I know it's the NAM.

[jasons2k]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

I don't believe so, and yet for several runs it *did* develop the mess that's out in the Gulf right now (which isn't gonna happen). So...I'd pay more attention to the GFS/Euro.

[HurricaneEric]

Any idea what kind of weather south Florida will see and when it will begin? I know its a pretty broad area so I don't know if it will be a Sunday and Monday rain event? Hoping its just like an afternoon thunderstorm.

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
Sunday and Monday.

Sunday through Tuesday: A strong tropical disturbance is expected to
move from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Conditions remain unfavorable for further tropical development over
the next two days as it affects South Florida. Regardless of
development, this disturbance is expected to bring periods of squally
weather across the area from at least late Sunday through Tuesday.
Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible, which may lead to
localized flooding across portions of South Florida. In addition,
isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible.
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/hwo

What SFL can expect the next couple days from NWS’s outlook.


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