TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stratosphere747]

Wish we had visible....

Looks almost as if we could be having a reformation of the center. Otherwise the center is almost completely exposed of convection per the 11pm advisory.

Looks like Shear to me coming down from the north?

More like dry air to me....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Run you a 30 image loop and look how the flow is squeezing it to the south/southwest. Could be shear of the dry air pushing down on it.

Also evident not on the floater but the regular GOES loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm a bit confused at what level and the impact on the motion, but it is IMO having some type of impact on the depression gaining strength. Don't see how they would upgrade at 1..

[Ivanhater]

well maybe one more for all those western cuba forecasts, i guess you could be right,

[floridahurricaneguy]

GFS is odd. I am not really buying it at all.Why are Euro and CMC staying same with Euro still on Tampa area and north.

Matt

[CHRISTY]

where is wilma on that image??

[jkt21787]

where is wilma on that image??

Wilma in on Western Cuba. But don't be fooled. That would be, if the GFS is right, WELL AFTER making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the Bay of Campeche, then moving back east into the Caribbean and back north into Cuba.

[Ivanhater]

where is wilma on that image??

what is left of her is that "L" over west cuba...this after it hits the yuctan , sits in the b.o.c and comes back east into the caribbean....throw this run out

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe 12 Advisories it took Irene to get named. We are at 6 already...This may come very close to it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[StormFury]

Someone needs to stop feeding the GFS with Oxy Contin!

[CHRISTY]

these models have been all over the freaken place..i dont trust any of them until this thing gets it act together..then maybe the future track will be more clear

[JamesFromMaine2]

IMO TD24 will be Wilma no later then 5am! However I could be wrong! Its looking its best right now then what it has in its life so far and I think it even has a chance of being upgraded at 2am!

[tornadochaser86]

when is wilma going to occur? she aint looking too haot right now

[wxmann_91]

An interesting development occured today.

The anticyclone over TD 24 split into two parts, one which drifted east and dissipated, and one which became dominant and now is west of TD 24. This might now induce some slight westerly shear, and in fact, the split might have caused the westerly shear that entrained some dry air into TD 24 earlier today, preventing it from becoming Wilma.









But, now, with the ridge setting in, the return northward flow from it should drive the dry air away from TD 24 unfortunately. Tonight's nocturnal convective cycle should be the start of an intensification phase for TD 24, and it is very likely that TD 24 will become Wilma either later tonight or tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on Tropical depression become a 40 mph tropical storm...

[StrongWind]

It's Jog time again

wv loop

And this jog looks due South.

[floridahurricaneguy]

So you all think to throw that run out? What do you NHC will do?

Matt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was talking about here last night about the Anticyclone shifting. In which would induce shear...I was not to far off...I agree a central core appears to have developed to a point...In once a more faverable set up strengthing should happen. Next 24 hours we will have Wilma.

[wxmann_91]

So you all think to throw that run out? What do you NHC will do?

Matt

Well, I won't throw this run out, after all this is the 0Z run (and 0Z and 12Z runs are much more reliable than the 18Z and 6Z runs), and the trend has been shifting westward.

Expect the entire 0Z consensus to shift westward, since many models are based off the GFS.

[vaffie]

Come on Tropical depression become a 40 mph tropical storm...

One good thing that WILL happen when it becomes a tropical storm is that the models will stop looking at it as a strong wave that can die at any moment and drift randomly and will start looking at it more as a permanently closed low pushed by upper level and lower level forces--their forecasts may then become more realistic--this will be most important for the GFS in my opinion, which seems in the 0Z run to have gone nuts. But then again, it could be the correctest one... We shall see what tomorrow's runs show. Will this be a threat to: Florida? AL/MS/LA? Texas? Mexico? Cuba? Much is still up in the air right now.

[JamesFromMaine2]

An interesting development occured today.

The anticyclone over TD 24 split into two parts, one which drifted east and dissipated, and one which became dominant and now is west of TD 24. This might now induce some slight westerly shear, and in fact, the split might have caused the westerly shear that entrained some dry air into TD 24 earlier today, preventing it from becoming Wilma.

According to the 11pm discussion it seems like the anticyclone will be helping TD24/Wilma to develop not keep it from developing!

[wxmann_91]

An interesting development occured today.

The anticyclone over TD 24 split into two parts, one which drifted east and dissipated, and one which became dominant and now is west of TD 24. This might now induce some slight westerly shear, and in fact, the split might have caused the westerly shear that entrained some dry air into TD 24 earlier today, preventing it from becoming Wilma.

According to the 11pm discussion it seems like the anticyclone will be helping TD24/Wilma to develop not keep it from developing!

Yeah, that's why I said it was temporary, of course once convection gets over the center and an inner core forms TD 24/Wilma will start strengthening.

I don't think you read the last part of my post:

But, now, with the ridge setting in, the return northward flow from it should drive the dry air away from TD 24 unfortunately. Tonight's nocturnal convective cycle should be the start of an intensification phase for TD 24, and it is very likely that TD 24 will become Wilma either later tonight or tomorrow.

Don't worry, happens to me all the time, really tempting to only read the first half and forget the second half.