Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Aric Dunn]

[jimvb]

It's doing its Splitsville thing again. It's getting into the Gulf and part of its energy breaks off. GFS thinks that's a storm and tries to develop it. So it's the Splitsville Bear - coming to you in Florida, or maybe Texas, or so the GFS says.

[NDG]

Nice UL High by Friday morning in west-central Carib., notice that in the EPAC UL levels are not the best.

[KWT]

06z coming out shortly will be interesting to see what the run does with it given what yesterdays 06z did.

0z doesn't really do much with this system this time and drifts it over Yucatan, till about 168hrs when a new center forms further east then develops stronger.

[Meso]

06z GFS MODEL RUN

30 Hours
Low pressure already formed

42 Hours
Low is gone

108 Hours
Broad low over Yucatan,strong wave off Africa

162 Hours
Over water as a low

216 hours

[Thunder44]

With each passing run, the GFS looks more disorganzied with this whole area, with it developing multiple centers now on either side of Central America or over land. I think it's trying to develop something on Carribean side too much.

[HURAKAN]

I'm thinking on Alma or TD-1E crossing to the Caribbean against a system developing in the Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

As long as we get some rain here in Florida, I am happy (although the thrill of a TS would also be nice lol).

[Evil Jeremy]

90E is becoming better orginized, and it is starting to look like it will cross into the Caribbean, rather than a system forming in the Caribbean itself. At the same time though, there is some really nice convection in the SW Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[NDG]

The GFS looks lost in the last two runs, with the multiple centers, is not giving the recognition to 90E. It now comes out with a system to pop out of this whole mess in 7 days?!

[dizzyfish]

From this mornings local NWS long term outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN MODEL DATA REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. INTRA AND INTER MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
ARE COMPLICATING THE PROCESS OF CHOOSING A SUITABLE SOLUTION FOR THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA...IF IT MATERIALIZES
AT ALL. A PROMISING SIGN WAS THE LATEST RUN FOR GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
WHICH BECAME SOMEWHAT CLOSER IN TERMS OF THE TIMING AND OVERALL
POSITION OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EACH AFTERNOON STARTING
SUNDAY AND WAIT FOR UPCOMING MODEL DATA BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

Link http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

A view of the SW Caribbean Convection.

[jimvb]

What I don't like about it is that the GFS in two successive runs seems to show the Bear/Arthur coming up to the Carolinas and Virginia. The 06Z run is especially hideous, calling for it to stall out around our area and go around in circles. Yes I say this deserves a "high bear watch" - oh by the way, what is a "high bear"? One that discovered a moonshine still in the woods? One that on top of a mountain?

[Thunder44]

Remember Derek said that he thought something was wrong with the GFS and GGEM developing the Cape Verde wave in May and that would put the Carribean system in doubt? Well I've noticed the Ukmet hasn't been developing the CV wave and it's been much less bullish on development in the Carribean and more in the Pacific. I'm not writing off the another system developing Carribean yet, but perhaps we should take more notice that.

[KWT]

Looks very messy as someone else said there is a load of circulations within the broad circulation, as well as several areas of decent convective acitivty on both sides of the central America.

Will be interesting to see what happens in the end, may see 90E cross land into the BOC, or we could wel lsee something new form down in the Sw Caribbean, I relaly don't know what to think its a forecasters nightmare forecasting these sorts of systems I bet.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Talk about a flip flop in the weekend weather here in S. Fl. I told a friend yesterday if they call for a wash out early in the week. Expect a nice weekend.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know if it has been mentioned yet, but the GFDL and HWRF runs for 90E are both taking it across Central America, although they differ after that. The GFDL shows it zigzagging through Mexico, while the HWRF gets rid of it while it is inland.

The 00z CMC showed the storm forming in the EPac as well, but taking its time getting to the BOC.

The GFS is still confused, and it still cant make up its mind on where it wants this storm to form and end up, although it still suggests that the action will mainly be in the Caribbean.


It seems that it doesn't matter where this thing forms, it will end up somewhere in the Caribbean, and Florida should get some much needed soaking.

[Meso]

Overall the Atlantic seems to be average to just above SST wise with the BOC being quite warm

[KWT]

Yep EJ the models do seem to now want to sort of develop the EPAC system and then take it across land towards the Caribbean. It doesn't need the survive because the extra energy present will probably give the extra boost needed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing happens in the Caribbean now. 90E looks too well organized. 4 or 5 days minumum for 90E to either cross into the Caribbean, move far enough away to the West per BAM-Deep model, or die crossing Central America before a Caribbean system either moves in or forms.


In my humble and uncalibrated amateur opinion.