Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

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srainhoutx
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Re:

#1041 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:27 pm

abajan wrote:Since my last post, the frequency of lightning has increased (with occasional distant rumbles of thunder). Also, it’s now flashing not just in the northwest but also in the southwest, south and southeast. There have been a couple of fairly heavy showers accompanied by some gusty winds as well.

This is my final report for the night and I’m shutting down and unplugging the computer to be on the safe side.

Good Night.



Thanks for the update. Lightning is certainly interesting in a strengthening disturbance.
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#1042 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:56 pm

00z GFS at 36 low just north of SA


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1043 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:03 pm

54hrs...00z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054m.gif
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Re:

#1044 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:08 pm

Wow, based on these trends development may only be 36 hours away, in which case this should definitely be tagged an invest and mentioned on the TWO. Satellite feature is pretty spotty....I get the feeling we are awaiting for some sort of interaction that is supposed to take place...but I can't even see a surface feature of any sort.

I need to see some drastic changes overnight as far as the structure of this system or i'm gonna have to start thinking these models are all loony.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1045 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:10 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif
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#1046 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:13 pm

H60 pulling away from SA...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1047 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:13 pm

90hrs...this is 46L the other feature in the long range needs to go in the other thread...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090l.gif
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1048 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:13 pm

00z GFS 90hrs

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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1049 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:15 pm

looks like a semi-landfall in CA at 90hrs....cmc was sniffing this out a few runs ago...
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1050 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:15 pm

96 hours

Image
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#1051 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:16 pm

your right rock....it appears the big ticket item per gfs comes next week...then again the euro has a different solution for now
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1052 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:17 pm

yep landfall....might squirt back over water,,

108hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108l.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1053 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:17 pm

ROCK wrote:looks like a semi-landfall in CA at 90hrs....cmc was sniffing this out a few runs ago...


Landfall...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108m.gif
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#1054 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:17 pm

108 hours - adios!

Image
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Lesser Antilles

#1055 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:17 pm

ROCK wrote:90hrs...this is 46L the other feature in the long range needs to go in the other thread...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_090l.gif


Agree.Long range model runs should be posted at the thread for that.
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Re:

#1056 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:18 pm

southerngale wrote:108 hours - adios!

Image


This will more than likely move back over water.
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Re:

#1057 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:18 pm

[quote="southerngale"]108 hours - adios!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... 8.gifquote]

"its dead Jim" :lol:
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#1058 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:19 pm

126 hours - hmmm

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#1059 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:19 pm

Over gulf of honduras.....


H126


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal126.gif
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#1060 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:23 pm

132 stationary....trough digging along east coast



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal132.gif
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