Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hammy]

Those who may be proclaiming the 2016 will be a dud be patient as the meat of the season is still coming.

Something else to consider, we're at four storms already--on average we only have one before August, and the fifth storm doesn't normally form until August 31. Many active seasons were a month later than this--1998 and 2000-02 as examples.

[tolakram]

If hurricane forecasting was easy the experts would have been able to nail these forecasts season after season. I don't think we'll be able to say the season is going to be slow than normal until we get past August. The models seem to be unable to give us more than a weeks warning, if the last few years are any indication.

I don't expect to see active waves (with convection) in the Atlantic until August. I don't expect SAL to let up until August, and I don't expect the models to show anything until August. It's going to be a long two weeks.

One other thing I want to see change is this:



Year after year now this flat lines going into the heart of the season. I do not know if this can stay flat and we can still have an active Caribbean season or not. Right now the Caribbean instability is below normal as well.

[RL3AO]

What are the ninel's of the world expecting this year? Most forecasts are for a near or slightly above active season. We're talking 13 or 14 named storms. Are you expecting 7 or 8? People are claiming an end to the season but if we get 13 named storms, I suspect many will still be saying the season was a bust.

[cycloneye]

Comparison of the TCHP of past years with 2016 that shows more warmer heat potential closer to land this year. Source from Dr Jeff Masters.



https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... rynum=3356

[HURRICANELONNY]

I cant believe it beat 2005 in heat potential. I bet 2005 was higher farther out in the MDR. I base everything on 2005 for whatever reason.

[WPBWeather]

I cant believe it beat 2005 in heat potential. I bet 2005 was higher farther out in the MDR. I base everything on 2005 for whatever reason.

We all want to believe in something, I suppose.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow that TCHP graphic is quite striking. Drives home the point of the in-close development threat this season. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

I cant believe it beat 2005 in heat potential. I bet 2005 was higher farther out in the MDR. I base everything on 2005 for whatever reason.

It helps that the Carib/southern gulf hasnt been touched by significant systems in a long while.

Though we all know it is always warm enough at peak to support a cat 5 there. It is just a matter if the atmosphere dictates whether or not they happen. 2005 was extremely favorable above the water.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow that TCHP graphic is quite striking. Drives home the point of the in-close development threat this season. We shall see.

Not really, given the waters in the Caribbean are always warm enough for a dangerous hurricane.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

Been saying this for awhile. I agree with him as well. Models have shown strong waves and trending that way so let us see if they can develop or not.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

The bad and boring news just keeps coming.

[Hammy]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

The bad and boring news just keeps coming.

1998 redux. We had a storm in late July and then nothing until almost the fourth week of August.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

Sorry I disagree as I feel Ventrice is putting too much weight on CCKW/MJO. The tropical waves should be getting better by around August 10 or so, making the MDR at least somewhat conducive.

[WPBWeather]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755070742786613248

The bad and boring news just keeps coming.

1998 redux. We had a storm in late July and then nothing until almost the fourth week of August.

I agree. MV is a smart guy, but really can't predict what will happen.

[cycloneye]

Yikes!

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/755123537879400449

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/755123537879400449

Yeah so when people say SAL could kill a season I believe it to be somewhat true. The high should get into better position to not spray the Atlantic with SAL but that is not a given.

[Hammy]

Yeah so when people say SAL could kill a season I believe it to be somewhat true. The high should get into better position to not spray the Atlantic with SAL but that is not a given.

SAL won't kill the season--this is perfectly normal for July. If it persists it could very well kill the MDR (which does not have much bearing on activity/landfalls.)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah so when people say SAL could kill a season I believe it to be somewhat true. The high should get into better position to not spray the Atlantic with SAL but that is not a given.

SAL won't kill the season--this is perfectly normal for July. If it persists it could very well kill the MDR (which does not have much bearing on activity/landfalls.)

Though I disagree I do understand it is normal for this time of the season. Of course weather can change fast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/755140009213227009