Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

I expect gfs to flip to euro tonight

[Clearcloudz]

I expect gfs to flip to euro tonight

Yup It would be such a GFS thing to do. It so badly wants to give into the EURO during the 06Z and 18Z runs but its fighting for its honor lol.

[tarheelprogrammer]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

I don't believe so, and yet for several runs it *did* develop the mess that's out in the Gulf right now (which isn't gonna happen). So...I'd pay more attention to the GFS/Euro.

How good is the RGEM with TCs?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

any guesses on percentages of the 2am outlook?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any idea what kind of weather south Florida will see and when it will begin? I know its a pretty broad area so I don't know if it will be a Sunday and Monday rain event? Hoping its just like an afternoon thunderstorm.

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
Sunday and Monday.

Sunday through Tuesday: A strong tropical disturbance is expected to
move from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Conditions remain unfavorable for further tropical development over
the next two days as it affects South Florida. Regardless of
development, this disturbance is expected to bring periods of squally
weather across the area from at least late Sunday through Tuesday.
Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible, which may lead to
localized flooding across portions of South Florida. In addition,
isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible.
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/hwo

What SFL can expect the next couple days from NWS’s outlook.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NWS Miami issued this special weather statement earlier today:


A strong tropical wave over the southern Bahamas will be moving
west northwest and through South Florida on Labor Day. This strong
wave will bring deep moisture to the area leading to the
potential of heavy rainfall across South Florida on Labor Day.
The east coast metropolitan areas appear to be at higher risk for
the heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected across South Florida at this time with the higher amounts
over the eastern areas. Any thunderstorms that do train over the
region will lead to much higher amounts, and this will be where
flooding is mostly likely to occur.

This heavy rainfall potential for Labor Day will be closely
watched, and if current trends hold a Flood Watch may need to be
considered for at least parts of South Florida for Sunday Night
into Labor Day.

[eastcoastFL]

[Haris]

since its only minutes away from 11pm outlook any guesses on percentages?

20/50

[eastcoastFL]

Any idea what kind of weather south Florida will see and when it will begin? I know its a pretty broad area so I don't know if it will be a Sunday and Monday rain event? Hoping its just like an afternoon thunderstorm.

There is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
Sunday and Monday.

Sunday through Tuesday: A strong tropical disturbance is expected to
move from the Bahamas and across the Florida peninsula into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Conditions remain unfavorable for further tropical development over
the next two days as it affects South Florida. Regardless of
development, this disturbance is expected to bring periods of squally
weather across the area from at least late Sunday through Tuesday.
Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible, which may lead to
localized flooding across portions of South Florida. In addition,
isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible.
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/hwo

What SFL can expect the next couple days from NWS’s outlook.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

NWS Miami issued this special weather statement earlier today:


A strong tropical wave over the southern Bahamas will be moving
west northwest and through South Florida on Labor Day. This strong
wave will bring deep moisture to the area leading to the
potential of heavy rainfall across South Florida on Labor Day.
The east coast metropolitan areas appear to be at higher risk for
the heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected across South Florida at this time with the higher amounts
over the eastern areas. Any thunderstorms that do train over the
region will lead to much higher amounts, and this will be where
flooding is mostly likely to occur.

This heavy rainfall potential for Labor Day will be closely
watched, and if current trends hold a Flood Watch may need to be
considered for at least parts of South Florida for Sunday Night
into Labor Day.

Thank you. So is there too much shear or is it moving to quickly for it to fire up in thr Fl straits?

[cycloneye]

since its only minutes away from 11pm outlook any guesses on percentages?

Is at 2 AM. I go with 30/60.

[galaxy401]

0z NAM shows no development, but a sharp wave axis tracking westward towards TX/LA by the middle part of the week.

Has nam ever shown development for this system?

I don't think Nam has been bullish on showing development on this system.

And I think the NAM kept developing that other Gulf system instead. Strange.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

since its only minutes away from 11pm outlook any guesses on percentages?

Is at 2 AM. I go with 30/60.

thank you for noticing, i usually know that lol

[Clearcloudz]

00Z RGEM high resolution model shows the wave moving a little more north towards Miami area instead of the keys on this run compared to previous runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018090200&fh=36

[stormlover2013]

Rgem isn’t really good though huh ??

[toad strangler]

Rgem isn’t really good though huh ??

It’s a mesoscale model. Not really meant to be tropical.

[floridasun78]

Rgem isn’t really good though huh ??

i heard this not good for tropical forecast i got feeling weak low will go by between key west and Cuba

[MGC]

The key here IMO is the ULL just east of norther Florida. Currently the ULL is causing a good bit of shear over the eastern GOM, across southern Florida and across the Bahamas. The current blow up of convection is the result of the tropical wave passing under the strong UL winds giving the illusion that the wave is becoming better organized. If any development is to occur the UL winds need to die down. This will depend on the strength and track of the ULL. At most I can only see a moderate TD/TS develop out of this wave. I doubt it can close off until into the GOM and will likely battle shear for the duration of its existence. It will bring a lot of rain to the northern gulf coast......MGC

[Boatman]

GFS looking weak...

[Javlin]

As far as strength goes it's hard to say MGC what will eventually happen ATTM but the ULL you speak of does not really appear that strong either but the location is not particularly helpful.The one to the NE out about 900miles is moving fast that one can be a ventilator to the NE and looks stronger.

https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo ... nhanced+24

[MississippiWx]

GFS with another weak run. Tropical depression landfalls in SE Louisiana.

[toad strangler]

Strength aside as that’s always the weakest link in modeling, S FL and a beeline to the NW into coastal LA and MS continue to be the focus of consensus it seems.