TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fci]

This system is weaker than the afternoon thuderstorms we get in So. Fla!

[shaggy]

problem is is that irene is a shallow system and doesn't have cold cloud tops to see a circ or motion.so everyone assumes she is disorganized but the LLC is still in good shape(probably) and the visibles in the morning will show a better heading and what organizational state she is in.

Being in NC i hope she fizzes as alot of longer range talk and models is for a SC/NC threat

[wxman57]

You could see the surface spiral bands curving into the center all day on visible.

The convection is curved and had a reflection of the LLC displaced by shear.

No way an open wave.

Actually, you could not see surface spiral bands curving into any center all day. You saw the images I posted, there was no evidence of anything at the surface. QuickSCAT confirms that it's an open wave. The center was in the process of dissipating last evening.

There is real data that supports my professional opinion. Take a look at this quickscat image only 4 hours old. It clearly shows an open wave with max uncontatminated winds of 20-25 kts.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

There seems to be quite a bit of wishful thinking here in this thread. I can understand that everyone is excited that there COULD be an east coast TS/hurricane threat in 6-7 days. But don't let your enthusiasm cloud your judgement. Look at the facts. It's obvious I'm just wasting my time here. Enjoy your Cat 5 tomorrow.

[Stratosphere747]

The storm is getting more organized, no doubt. The circulation, IMO, is getting embedded in the convection, and though it is small, it is almost infinitely better than yesterday. The question is, where and how strong? Carolinas might get this one as stronger than many might think.
(This is just the opinion of the poster, do not take it for anything official, consult NHC for anything official)

No offense, but I'm curious as to what you are looking at that shows that there even IS a low-level circulation? I stared at high-res visible McIdas imagery all day and could detect no sign of an LLC. And it would be nearly impossible to detect an LLC at night with this type of system. As for the convection, there are only 2 thunderstorms in the entire depression as of now. So since the existence of a circulation is in question, and there is no convection, I could not conclude without a doubt that it is getting better organized. In my professional opinion, Irene has been a wave for nearly 24 hours with no well-defined LLC. That conclusion is suppored by all the available data, including both a 0936 and 2200Z quickscat pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09as.png

Therfore, without an LLC and with extremely limited convection, all I can conclude is that we have a strong tropical wave there which needs to be monitored closely for potential development in a day or two.

Again, I know that the part about having no doubt that it is getting better organized was just your opinion, and you're certainly entitled to an opinion. I was just wondering what facts your opinion was based upon.

well you didnt think it was moving west yesterday evening when it clearly was.

No offense Ivan....

wxman IMO is about as good as it gets around here...

[CronkPSU]

NHC keeps irene at a depression at 11...moving west still at 10, new forecast map has it heading towards NC

[wxman57]

problem is is that irene is a shallow system and doesn't have cold cloud tops to see a circ or motion.so everyone assumes she is disorganized but the LLC is still in good shape(probably) and the visibles in the morning will show a better heading and what organizational state she is in.

Being in NC i hope she fizzes as alot of longer range talk and models is for a SC/NC threat

Ok, one last post. You DO NOT see a circulation in cold cloud tops. Using IR imagery, you ignore the cold, bright cloud tops and look for the very low clouds that are almost the same color as the ocean surface. With a weak system like Irene, seeing an LLC at night would be nearly impossible. Use the data available - QuickSCAT. It clearly shows no LLC.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

Ok, that's it, I'm out of here.

[Ivanhater]

well im pointing out he was wrong yesterday and pros can be wrong, there is nothing wrong with being wrong, were all human

[deltadog03]

ok, could someone answer my question please??? why do the models still want to start moving this think WNW like yesterday??? any thoughts...

[artist]

Wxman - please don't take it out on most everyone here by foregoing your input. There are only a couple that are questioning your reasoning, the majority not. I would like to see you stay.

[ROCK]

problem is is that irene is a shallow system and doesn't have cold cloud tops to see a circ or motion.so everyone assumes she is disorganized but the LLC is still in good shape(probably) and the visibles in the morning will show a better heading and what organizational state she is in.

Being in NC i hope she fizzes as alot of longer range talk and models is for a SC/NC threat

Ok, one last post. You DO NOT see a circulation in cold cloud tops. Using IR imagery, you ignore the cold, bright cloud tops and look for the very low clouds that are almost the same color as the ocean surface. With a weak system like Irene, seeing an LLC at night would be nearly impossible. Use the data available - QuickSCAT. It clearly shows no LLC.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

Ok, that's it, I'm out of here.

Hey WX, posting on Dan's board wasnt this bad huh??

[Ivanhater]

personally i dont care, i will question anyone who i may think is wrong, call me independent, but i think its a good thing to question people, it only makes us better

[Stratosphere747]

well im pointing out he was wrong yesterday and pros can be wrong, there is nothing wrong with being wrong, were all human

There is nothing wrong with being "human"...

What is now happening is that the "amateurs" at this site, and I consider myself in that category, are now arguing with the pros when the obvious is staring you in the face.

I stated earlier that I miss the "old days"

50+ pages for something that has not even began to threaten the US is absurd.... IMO...

Scott

[BensonTCwatcher]

Based on the QS data here's the hires http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas99.png it is an open wave. Also, the last visibles confirm it. Most folks are looking at the MLC. Even on the short wave IR, it looks dubiuos. The mid level circualtion was de-coupled. In fact, I don't think it was ever coupled.

Having said that, we saw this opening in the circ. before and yet the system is still here. I think we are at a decision point. if the opens much more it's diminishing IMHO

[CronkPSU]

interesting that the storm has again clicked to the south the past 6 hours...no idea what that means considering the storm is punchless right now but seems to make impacting the US more and more likely

[boca]

TD9 or Irene is finally disappating,looks very ragged.By tomorrow she'll either be a tropical storm or nothing.

[ROCK]

personally i dont care, i will question anyone who i may think is wrong, call me independent, but i think its a good thing to question people, it only makes us better

Its ok to question people on there opinions as long as you have facts to back them up. Both you guys had facts so really should be no hard feelings but rather just a disagreement.

Personally, (and yes I did look for the low level clouds that look like the ocean ) IMO there is some sort of weak LLC associated with Irene but not as strong as yesterday. Really looking ragged tonight with loss of convection.

[Ivanhater]

personally i dont care, i will question anyone who i may think is wrong, call me independent, but i think its a good thing to question people, it only makes us better

Its ok to question people on there opinions as long as you have facts to back them up. Both you guys had facts so really should be no hard feelings but rather just a disagreement.

Personally, (and yes I did look for the low level clouds that look like the ocean ) IMO there is some sort of weak LLC associated with Irene but not as strong as yesterday. Really looking ragged tonight with loss of convection.

i agree

[fci]

53 pages have been fun, it is what this board is all about!
But, this one truly looks pathetic!
Don't know why the NHC has not written the obituary yet.
Derek looks like he has, or at least put it off 12 hours....

[Wnghs2007]

Personally, Tropical Wave Irene looks like total junk tonight, as wxman57 has stated the quickscat shows that there is no closed low level circulation.

Which would generally mean it would go in the general direction in which tropical waves go, westward. And even if it did have a LLC it is so weak that it would have to follow the lower level flow which with maps that have been posted is towards the west.


However lets watch this down the road as it could re develop. But Im sure tomorrow morning I am going to be eating my words so much its not funny. As I tend to jynx things to happen.


So if Im wrong I would like some BBQ Crow Sandwhich with some bacon and cheese and some turkey. Go light on the Mayo with a fry and a Large Coke Zero.

[clfenwi]

ok, could someone answer my question please??? why do the models still want to start moving this think WNW like yesterday??? any thoughts...

I won't discourage you from trying to figure that out as you just might learn something in the process (as you might be in better touch with the data if you scour it trying to figure out what the models are seeing).

However, I will say that there is not much wrong with 'blackboxing' the problem, i.e. accepting that it exists without explanation and then continuing your work with that bias accounted for. You usually can't carry that kind of thinking too far into the future, but in the shorter terms it does help.