Hurricaneman wrote:The ENSO subsurface is telling me that maybe the El Niño peaked in late February early March and it’s now in decline, wouldn’t be surprised if El Niño fails by June
Possible. The subsfc does look unhealthy.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/6YvSdLG.gif)
However, the Niño has one last WWB up its sleeve. An MJO pulse currently in the Indian Ocean, causing a EWB in the Niño regions. It is slated to move eastward, slowly moving anomalous westerlies towards the Pacific. Soon, it will likely cause a WWB. This one is especially important, as it could finally give us answers to this yr's ENSO. It could either finally give the Niño a boost, which would allow it to carry on into the winter, or if it acts similarly to the one in March, it will likely decay slowly, as seasonal forcing around this time of year is rather weak.
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and
in no way is official. Please refer to
http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon:
http://cyclonicwx.com