2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[JaxGator]

Maybe since it's a small compact tropical cyclone that's why the Euro does not show it?

That's possible too.

Given the resolution of the ECMWF compared to the GFS, that's unlikely.

Guess it depends on how both models interpret the conditions during that time then. Come to think of it, it didn't look that small (Danny wise) on the graphic.

[Siker]

12z Euro actually begins developing this in the Western Atlantic. You can see it NE of the Bahamas here:

[NDG]

12z Euro actually begins developing this in the Western Atlantic. You can see it NE of the Bahamas here:

http://i.imgur.com/DlLZXTf.jpg

The development that the Euro shows in its long range near the Bahamas is from the tropical wave that is getting ready to exit Africa not the same tropical wave that the GFS develops.

[Hammy]

12z Euro actually begins developing this in the Western Atlantic.

In addition, is it me or do the waves on the Euro's run seem to be getting slightly stronger with each run

[ninel conde]

12z Euro actually begins developing this in the Western Atlantic. You can see it NE of the Bahamas here:

http://i.imgur.com/DlLZXTf.jpg

The development that the Euro shows in its long range near the Bahamas is from the tropical wave that is getting ready to exit Africa not the same tropical wave that the GFS develops.

surface pressures seem to be 1016-1020 in the SW atlantic. seems a bit high for development to me.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS drops development yet again through 192hrs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS drops development yet again through 192hrs.

Nothing but shear and dry air up to hour 234:

[ninel conde]

18z GFS drops development yet again through 192hrs.

Nothing but shear and dry air up to hour 234:

The biggest reason is NW ATL, SE Canada is dominated by low pressure keeping the atlantic high in a perfect position to flood the atlantic with dust. looks like some more activity beginning in the east pac on that map. All that bone dry sinking air in the ATL looks to be balanced by very favorable east pac.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS drops development yet again through 192hrs.

Nothing but shear and dry air up to hour 234:

The biggest reason is NW ATL, SE Canada is dominated by low pressure keeping the atlantic high in a perfect position to flood the atlantic with dust. looks like some more activity beginning in the east pac on that map.

Yeah the Atlantic is a graveyard in recent years outside of a few storms. Always dry air or shear or both. This season will be no different in my opinion. The Pacific is on full blast and no signs of slowing down except maybe a week break before right back to producing storm after storm. I know it is July but models are starting to see into August and they see no changes really.

Edit: GFS ends its run at 18z with nothing up to August 8th.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah today's 18z GFS goes through August 8th which is nearly a third of the way through August. I'm going to guess we don't see anything through at least half of August.

Until the East Pacific slows down which doesn't seem like it will ever happen the Atlantic will be a ghost town.

By the way I counted two additional maturely developed tropical cyclones in the East Pacific through the 18z GFS run.

[ninel conde]

:uarrow: Yeah today's 18z GFS goes through August 8th which is nearly a third of the way through August. I'm going to guess we don't see anything through at least half of August.

Until the East Pacific slows down which doesn't seem like it will ever happen the Atlantic will be a ghost town.

By the way I counted two additional maturely developed tropical cyclones in the East Pacific through the 18z GFS run.

Not a surprise. I wouldnt be shocked if JB begins to back off his cane forecast of high impacts in the western basin.

[xcool22]

Nothing but shear and dry air up to hour 234:

The biggest reason is NW ATL, SE Canada is dominated by low pressure keeping the atlantic high in a perfect position to flood the atlantic with dust. looks like some more activity beginning in the east pac on that map.

Yeah the Atlantic is a graveyard in recent years outside of a few storms. Always dry air or shear or both. This season will be no different in my opinion. The Pacific is on full blast and no signs of slowing down except maybe a week break before right back to producing storm after storm. I know it is July but models are starting to see into August and they see no changes really.

I agree with you . start wondering why things cannot get going

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Yeah today's 18z GFS goes through August 8th which is nearly a third of the way through August. I'm going to guess we don't see anything through at least half of August.

Until the East Pacific slows down which doesn't seem like it will ever happen the Atlantic will be a ghost town.

1985 and 1998 were both very front-loaded seasons for the Pacific as well, and the Atlantic in both years was more active in the second half. It's unwise to draw conclusions about mid-August to mid-October from July conditions given that in most years, July/Aug-Sep are completely different from each other.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS shows a busy EPAC with nada across the Atlantic out through day 16

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yeah today's 18z GFS goes through August 8th which is nearly a third of the way through August. I'm going to guess we don't see anything through at least half of August.

Until the East Pacific slows down which doesn't seem like it will ever happen the Atlantic will be a ghost town.

1985 and 1998 were both very front-loaded seasons for the Pacific as well, and the Atlantic in both years was more active in the second half. It's unwise to draw conclusions about mid-August to mid-October from July conditions given that in most years, July/Aug-Sep are completely different from each other.

I know what you're saying and I have wondered too if this will be a back-loaded season for the Atlantic with the upcoming La Niña still materializing.

What I'm curious is when will the Eastern Pacific finally settle down which should allow the Atlantic to possibly turn on.

One possible thought is the waves continue to get stronger coming off of Africa in the coming weeks allowing them to detach from the ITCZ sooner therefore they do not run into South America and go straight into the East Pacific and blow up. This would possibly give them a chance to form in the Atlantic depending on overall conditions.

[ninel conde]

Latest GFS shows a busy EPAC with nada across the Atlantic out through day 16

background pressures are quite low in the east pac with lots of upward motion. not a shock shear will increase across the atlantic basin

[stormwise]

EC ens https://i.imgsafe.org/40d084de5b.png 1004 mb




http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/sal/info.html
Saharan Air Layer/Tropical Cyclone Interactions: Tropical cyclones (TCs) interact with the SAL in several ways. Some TCs are embedded in the SAL for their entire life cycle and often struggle to intensify beyond strong tropical storm strength (>=34 kt to <64 kt). Tropical Storm Chantal of 2001 is an example of this type of interaction (Java Loop 1). Other TCs like Joyce of 2000 can be overrun by the faster moving SAL and are quickly weakened (Java Loop 2). TCs that are embedded in the SAL early in their life cycle and later emerge from the SAL can often be seen undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Hurricane Erin of 2001 is an example of such an interaction (Java Loop 3).

[blp]

The EPAC action may explain why the models drop developement past 55w there is just too much sinking air from the upward motion in the EPAC.

That basin is certainly having a run and will probably break the record for a month. If you were to ask me before the season what month I would choose for this to happen I would say July because that is historically the slowest month in the Atlantic. So things are not necessarily that far off yet. The upward motion will shift and when it does you will have the peak months remaining in the Atlantic. I know it's hard but we need to give it a little more time unfortunately. I get caught myself in looking ahead and I need to remind myself it is still late July.

[JaxGator]

The EPAC action may explain why the models drop developement past 55w there is just too much sinking air from the upward motion in the EPAC.

That basin is certainly having a run and will probably break the record for a month. If you were to ask me before the season what month I would choose for this to happen I would say July because that is historically the slowest month in the Atlantic. So things are not necessarily that far off yet. The upward motion will shift and when it does you will have the peak months remaining in the Atlantic. I know it's hard but we need to give it a little more time unfortunately. I get caught myself in looking ahead and I need to remind myself it is still late July.

Thank you blp for your analyzes and reminder. It'll be nice to enjoy the present while we can but also looking ahead as well. I know I've said this more than once but I'm still not giving up on the season. Don't let the lull break you.

[SFLcane]

Season is over shear is high dry air all these are perfectly normal at this time of the year. Some of these posts give me a good laugh. We are nearly a month away from the REAL season which starts on Aug 20. Give it sometime and lay off the season cancel posts. Thx