2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

May well make it past August 15th without Danielle. Let's see if I can spark development by taking every Thursday/Friday off in August. Once the tropics see I've officially added this coming Thu/Fri as vacation days, then they'll get active.

[weeniepatrol]

May well make it past August 15th without Danielle. Let's see if I can spark development by taking every Thursday/Friday off in August. Once the tropics see I've officially added this coming Thu/Fri as vacation days, then they'll get active.

Most bullish indicator I’ve ever seen..

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEFS



A lot activity in Eastern Pacific through August 15

12Z GEPS (Canadian Ensembles)



Showing same thing a lot of activity lighting up between August 8 - August 15 in East PAC

[MHC Tracking]

GFS 12z with a parade of EPAC tropical cyclones throughout the run. Somewhat reminds me of early August 2021.

[Steve]

That GFs 12z run also drops a big front down in the SE (central Florida) after those EPAC systems with a big high behind it. It won’t go down like that in 364h, but everyone should know that early fronts are often precursors to storms coming up in response. /if/ it were right, you’d expect something to be coming up from the Caribbean in the following couple of days. Always expect systems south of big continental highs in August and September. Eventually that scenario will be right later in the season.

[AtlanticWind]

Well August is here and I expect we will see some increased activity in the ensembles
over the couple of weeks as we approach peak season. We shall see.

[ronjon]

Right on cue with climatology, the 06z GFS drops a 961 mb hurricane into south texas from a western Caribbean disturbance that forms in 10 days.

[REDHurricane]

Right on cue with climatology, the 06z GFS drops a 961 mb hurricane into south texas from a western Caribbean disturbance that forms in 10 days.

Probably just the GFS's CAG bias; I would be surprised if three major hurricanes simultaneously form within a ~15 degree² box like the GFS is predicting right now, and neither the ECMWF nor CMC show anything similar 10 days out. However, you never know when the proverbial switch will be flipped on, so we'll just have to see.

[Visioen]

formation:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS had anything developing in North Atlantic but in EPAC, has three.

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro Ensembles really come alive after the 10 day mark. Haven't seen that level of activity on the Euro Ensembles thus far in the Atlantic Basin this year.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z Euro Ensembles really come alive after the 10 day mark. Haven't seen that level of activity on the Euro Ensembles thus far in the Atlantic Basin this year.

Yeah it's anticipating the classic mid-August switch flip we've been discussing on here. CCKW from the EPAC eventually propagates over Africa, providing a boost to the ASW/WAM which would produce more favorable conditions for TWs to develop. That's likely where that long-range EPS signal is coming from. The timeframe could obviously still be pushed back but given what we've normally seen from season's past it would not shock me to see a scenario similar to this play out.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEFS showing a lot of activity in the gulf middle of August.

[jaguars_22]

Looks like the early timeframes like Texas! Then everything else goes east…

[Nimbus]

:uarrow: formation:

https://i.imgur.com/m6vo6DV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/sPf8zaH.gif

That looks evil like a unicursal hexagram Aleister Crowley is trying to summon a point for.
Maybe these models are possessed?

[Visioen]

OMG I SEE IT NOW

[Cpv17]

12Z GEFS showing a lot of activity in the gulf middle of August.

https://i.imgur.com/5HlFJuD.gif

Honestly that’s not a very strong signal. Pretty weak to be completely honest.

[Steve]

GFS 18z looks to move the second EPAC system into the Gulf maybe stretched but indicating a lot of rain for eastern Texas.

[wxman57]

GFS 18z looks to move the second EPAC system into the Gulf maybe stretched but indicating a lot of rain for eastern Texas.

Or, maybe it's 14 days out and most likely not going to happen.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ensembles in 10 days have many members in MDR.