2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

Keep an eye on the Caribbean storm on the GFS, it was on the CMC as well and its from a TW leaving Africa in 2-3 days. It is not your typical GFS fantasy cane and could be our next system.

https://i.imgur.com/dhxvH09.png

https://i.imgur.com/SOTS4Kv.png

962 mb in the Gulf... This is the 384 hr GFS that we knew and loved
https://i.postimg.cc/cJMMLWTq/image.png

Featuring the classic South American ghost genesis too

I don't think that's solely a phantom -- the energy can be traced back to a wave, even though the Venezuelan vorticity could certainly be helping it:



Regardless, if this one doesn't develop, the following wave probably will develop east of the Lesser Antilles based on this run alone. In the actual run, it was likely sheared by the Caribbean system.

[Hammy]

Looking back over this, the two lows that were showing up on the CFS (the BoC low and western MDR storm) are also on here, so that could be five storms near end of run if this verifies

[skyline385]

Keep an eye on the Caribbean storm on the GFS, it was on the CMC as well and its from a TW leaving Africa in 2-3 days. It is not your typical GFS fantasy cane and could be our next system.

https://i.imgur.com/dhxvH09.png

https://i.imgur.com/SOTS4Kv.png

962 mb in the Gulf... This is the 384 hr GFS that we knew and loved
https://i.postimg.cc/cJMMLWTq/image.png

Featuring the classic South American ghost genesis too

its not a phantom as noted in my post including the screenshot, you can trace it to an AEW coming off Africa and its on the CMC too which does not have GFS' SA vorticity issue.

[skyline385]

Two signals on the 0Z Euro, the GoM one continuing and a new MDR one

[Teban54]

0z GEFS... I don't think I need to say much before comments about SFL begin

[skyline385]

Someone called for a switch flip? Right on time as we hit Aug 20th

[Hammy]

0z GEFS... I don't think I need to say much before comments about SFL begin
https://i.postimg.cc/prc6ChBW/gefs-2024-08-20-00-Z-336-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Looks like at least three distinct clusters on there, and fairly visible on Tropical Tidbits map

[kevin]

5 AOI on the GFS operational run, two clear signals on the Euro 00z run and also 2 MDR signals on 00z ICON. Looks like 'switch flip' day (in terms of models at least) is exactly on August 20 this year.

[jlauderdal]

0z GEFS... I don't think I need to say much before comments about SFL begin
https://i.postimg.cc/prc6ChBW/gefs-2024-08-20-00-Z-336-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Folks are digging hard after Ernesto posting these solutions beyond 240 but I get your point about SFL on this run

Keys had the famous Labor Day 1935 storm

[cycloneye]

And just as the bell day arrives, boom. We return to normal programming.

[TomballEd]

Not this year.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVWzDd9XEAAvkrX?format=jpg&name=900x900

August 2023 has nothing to do with this year or any other year probably since the dinosaurs.

I never said the NHC outlook from one year ago has anything to do with this year. I'll type this slow for you- just noting how dead this year is. I'm not the guy that posted a 2017 model map to claim 2024 was about to explode.

[kevin]

06z GFS

The wave that exits Africa in about 50 hours slowly builds convection and results in a TD at +138 hrs. It slowly travels along the MDR and comes together better around +240hrs, a 992 mb TS/cat 1 at +294 hours.

[SFLcane]

Lol just like that.. patience!

[TomballEd]

Ensembles and models showing signs that at the climatological peak of hurricane season in early September the tropics will become more active. Euro week away SE Texas system looks interesting, except it tracks along the coast and is embedded in the desert. GEFS idea of two clusters of weak systems in the Atlantic at 10 days, with a few members than developing significant systems as September begins seems plausible.

Maybe Euro system might be a little stronger, very dry and hot IMBY.



Image would have shown very small disturbance embedded in very dry air.

[toad strangler]

Not this year.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVWzDd9XEAAvkrX?format=jpg&name=900x900

August 2023 has nothing to do with this year or any other year probably since the dinosaurs.

I never said the NHC outlook from one year ago has anything to do with this year. I'll type this slow for you- just noting how dead this year is. I'm not the guy that posted a 2017 model map to claim 2024 was about to explode.

This year is WHAT? Dead? If we take away Beryl (which we can't) ACE is STILL ahead of climatological norm.

[kevin]

Long-range GFS, 958 mb.

[TomballEd]

August 2023 has nothing to do with this year or any other year probably since the dinosaurs.

I never said the NHC outlook from one year ago has anything to do with this year. I'll type this slow for you- just noting how dead this year is. I'm not the guy that posted a 2017 model map to claim 2024 was about to explode.

This year is WHAT? Dead? If we take away Beryl (which we can't) ACE is STILL ahead of climatological norm.

https://i.ibb.co/5MCBjkG/Capture1.jpg

I said August has been dead since Ernesto. I didn't say this year was dead. I lost power 5 days in Beryl. I am saying after an active start, this year has slowed considerably. If you read my posts you'd see I am looking into September for an upturn and I still expect above average ACE and NS, just well below the April-June forecast of a near record active season. Please read in context.

[toad strangler]

I never said the NHC outlook from one year ago has anything to do with this year. I'll type this slow for you- just noting how dead this year is. I'm not the guy that posted a 2017 model map to claim 2024 was about to explode.

This year is WHAT? Dead? If we take away Beryl (which we can't) ACE is STILL ahead of climatological norm.

https://i.ibb.co/5MCBjkG/Capture1.jpg

I said August has been dead since Ernesto. I didn't say this year was dead. I lost power 5 days in Beryl. I am saying after an active start, this year has slowed considerably. If you read my posts you'd see I am looking into September for an upturn and I still expect above average ACE and NS, just well below the April-June forecast of a near record active season. Please read in context.

You said literally "just noting how dead this year is."
And while we are at it, Ernesto is still alive so how can it be dead since Ernesto?

I'm not trying to nudge you. I'm just confused at some of your statements. I'm sure you understand it all. Maybe typing too fast?

[TomballEd]

I never said the NHC outlook from one year ago has anything to do with this year. I'll type this slow for you- just noting how dead this year is. I'm not the guy that posted a 2017 model map to claim 2024 was about to explode.

This year is WHAT? Dead? If we take away Beryl (which we can't) ACE is STILL ahead of climatological norm.

https://i.ibb.co/5MCBjkG/Capture1.jpg

I said August has been dead since Ernesto. I didn't say this year was dead. I lost power 5 days in Beryl. I am saying after an active start, this year has slowed considerably. If you read my posts you'd see I am looking into September for an upturn and I still expect above average ACE and NS, just well below the April-June forecast of a near record active season. Please read in context.

Euro weeklies have backed off how active September will be, Now shows significantly below normal ACE for the next 4 weeks. That is a single run and not like the prior days. I am still expecting SEptember, peak season, to be closer to normal levels of activity.

[TomballEd]

This year is WHAT? Dead? If we take away Beryl (which we can't) ACE is STILL ahead of climatological norm.

https://i.ibb.co/5MCBjkG/Capture1.jpg

I said August has been dead since Ernesto. I didn't say this year was dead. I lost power 5 days in Beryl. I am saying after an active start, this year has slowed considerably. If you read my posts you'd see I am looking into September for an upturn and I still expect above average ACE and NS, just well below the April-June forecast of a near record active season. Please read in context.

You said literally "just noting how dead this year is."
And while we are at it, Ernesto is still alive so how can it be dead since Ernesto?

I'm not trying to nudge you. I'm just confused at some of your statements. I'm sure you understand it all. Maybe typing too fast?

Ernesto passed Bermuda, and is now causing high surf and riptides, but is moving away from Newfoundland and isn't really tropical anymore. I'm more addressing people that for at least 7 days plus now looking at 15 day ensembles, seeing one or two members with a storm, and calling it a signal. There is a signal now, but it isn't until the very end of August, most likely September. Posting a cluster of 1010 mb 20-30 knot ensemble members with a couple of strong members, not much of a signal. There is a signal, but beyond 10 days.