2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[blp]

Just as I was thinking, there is a problem right now with sinking air when you get around 40w there is just a wall of sinking air. Quite a contrast with the EPAC. It gets a little better if a wave can get past that wall. Lets see if that changes.

[cycloneye]

Closer to land will be the main activity as our pro mets have been saying for weeks.

[JaxGator]

Closer to land will be the main activity as our pro mets have been saying for weeks.

From either cut off Lows or Cape Verdi storms that strengthen if they make it there. Those should be watched.

[stormwise]

Really find it hard to get my head around the predictions posted on this thread with all the season 2016 cancel posts.

Looking over the ATL 2015 (nino) season it was described at the time by wxman57 as likely the most hostile conditions he had ever seen for tc's.

Yet the basin still produced twelve tropical cyclones, eleven named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. (Do you think maybe there is a clue there).

[tolakram]

A lot has changed since yesterday.

Really folks, just cool it for a few days.

[stormwise]

A lot has changed since yesterday.

Really folks, just cool it for a few days.

What exactly are you saying RE: A lot has changed since yesterday. 24 hours is nothing that's not going to make or break a season, and its rude to roll eyes in my part of the world

[Hammy]

On the note of the dry air, I'll add that while this year will likely be nothing close to 2005, there was very little activity in the MDR and most activity was centered around the western Atlantic. And in fact, despite an active June/July and 28 storms todal, the first three weeks of August still only produced one storm (outside the tropics) and one hurricane (which struggled until about 25-30N). Only five storms were named in the MDR east of the Caribbean, same as 2015; One storm became a hurricane there, two in 2015; and one major hurricane in 2015 with none in 2005. So conditions in the tropical Atlantic are not necessarily indicative of how the rest of the basin will behave.

[stormwise]

OLR r/w and mjo.

[tolakram]

A lot has changed since yesterday.

Really folks, just cool it for a few days.

What exactly are you saying RE: A lot has changed since yesterday. 24 hours is nothing that's not going to make or break a season, and its rude to roll eyes in my part of the world

It was not directed at you, apologies for the sarcasm but I'm at my wits end with some of these posts.

[stormwise]

Thankyou

[Hurricaneman]

The wave that the GFS was previously developing but isn't now, may that be a problem once in the Caribbean as it seems to try to pop a low in the eastern Caribbean at hr 324

Does pop a tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean which may be more plausible than the idea it had before

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[Hammy]

Canadian model seems to be performing best out of all of them this year, which I never expected I'd say. It's done quite well with the Pacific systems. That said, it spins up the same wave the GFS has moved to the western Atlantic, and spins up something in he GoM in a few days as well, which I believe is from the stalled trough.

[cycloneye]

What you see north of Bahamas is development of the same wave GFS has been showing for days coming out of West Africa and now boom.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna see a lot of activity on here if this holds true

[ninel conde]

Gonna see a lot of activity on here if this holds true

Would like to see something on the Euro as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Gonna see a lot of activity on here if this holds true

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf- ... /slp10.png

Would like to see something on the Euro as well.

Here you go!

12z Euro Yesterday Afternoon.
http://i64.tinypic.com/2upbdac.jpg

06z GFS This Morning.
http://i64.tinypic.com/v5xqme.jpg

This mornings 00z Euro run did not show it but we shall see if it pans out in time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

06z GFS with a hurricane hit in eastern NC. Ensemble members showing OTS , EC, or GOM possibilities. No other model support. Hopefully a phantom storm.

[ninel conde]

06z GFS with a hurricane hit in eastern NC. Ensemble members showing OTS , EC, or GOM possibilities. No other model support. Hopefully a phantom storm.

If at 12z both the gfs and euro show a well developed SURFACE low then its time to worry a bit. JB hasnt tweeted anything about it.

[Frank2]

True, but the NWS/NHC doesn't pay much attention to anything beyond 120 hours. Right now it's double that length, so likely the output will change quite a bit over the coming days. Still could be based on climatology more than anything...

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/757182103847104512